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Register a new userSheath-Accumulating Propagation of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection
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Fast interplanetary coronal mass ejections (interplanetary CMEs, or ICMEs) are the drivers of strongest space weather storms such as solar energetic particle events and geomagnetic storms. The connection between space weather impacting solar wind disturbances associated with fast ICMEs at Earth and the characteristics of causative energetic CMEs observed near the Sun is a key question in the study of space weather storms as well as in the development of practical space weather prediction. Such shock-driving fast ICMEs usually expand at supersonic speed during the propagation, resulting in the continuous accumulation of shocked sheath plasma ahead. In this paper, we propose the sheath-accumulating propagation (SAP) model that describe the coevolution of the interplanetary sheath and decelerating ICME ejecta by taking into account the process of upstream solar wind plasma accumulation within the sheath region. Based on the SAP model, we discussed (1) ICME deceleration characteristics, (2) the fundamental condition for fast ICME at Earth, (3) thickness of interplanetary sheath, (4) arrival time prediction and (5) the super-intense geomagnetic storms associated with huge solar flares. We quantitatively show that not only speed but also mass of the CME are crucial in discussing the above five points. The similarities and differences among the SAP model, the drag-based model and the`snow-plough model proposed by citet{tappin2006} are also discussed.
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Planar magnetic structures (PMSs) are periods in the solar wind during which interplanetary magnetic field vectors are nearly parallel to a single plane. One of the specific regions where PMSs have been reported are coronal mass ejection (CME)-driven sheaths. We use here an automated method to identify PMSs in 95 CME sheath regions observed in-situ by the Wind and ACE spacecraft between 1997 and 2015. The occurrence and location of the PMSs are related to various shock, sheath and CME properties. We find that PMSs are ubiquitous in CME sheaths; 85% of the studied sheath regions had PMSs with the mean duration of 6.0 hours. In about one-third of the cases the magnetic field vectors followed a single PMS plane that covered a significant part (at least 67%) of the sheath region. Our analysis gives strong support for two suggested PMS formation mechanisms: the amplification and alignment of solar wind discontinuities near the CME-driven shock and the draping of the magnetic field lines around the CME ejecta. For example, we found that the shock and PMS plane normals generally coincided for the events where the PMSs occurred near the shock (68% of the PMS plane normals near the shock were separated by less than 20{deg} from the shock normal), while deviations were clearly larger when PMSs occurred close to the ejecta leading edge. In addition, PMSs near the shock were generally associated with lower upstream plasma beta than the cases where PMSs occurred near the leading edge of the CME. We also demonstrate that the planar parts of the sheath contain a higher amount of strongly southward magnetic field than the non-planar parts, suggesting that planar sheaths are more likely to drive magnetospheric activity.
We present a comprehensive statistical analysis of 106 sheath regions driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and measured near 1 AU. Using data from the STEREO probes, this extended analysis focuses on two discrete categorizations. In the first categorization, we investigate how the generic features of sheaths change with their potential formation mechanisms (propagation and expansion sheaths), namely, their associations with magnetic ejectas (MEs) which are primarily expanding or propagating in the solar wind. We find propagation sheaths to be denser and driven by stronger MEs, whereas expansion sheaths are faster. Exploring the temporal profiles of these sheaths with a superposed epoch technique, we observe that most of the magnetic field and plasma signatures are more elevated in propagation sheaths relative to expansion sheaths. The second categorization is based on speed variations across sheaths. Employing linear least squares regression, we categorize four distinct speed profiles of the sheath plasma. We find that the associated shock properties and solar cycle phase do not impact the occurrence of such variations. Our results also highlight that the properties of the driving MEs are a major source of variability in the sheath properties. Through logistic regression, we conclude that the magnetic field strength and the ME speed in the frame of the solar wind are likely drivers of these speed variations.
The drag-based model (DBM) for heliospheric propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is a widely used analytical model which can predict CME arrival time and speed at a given heliospheric location. It is based on the assumption that the propagation of CMEs in interplanetary space is solely under the influence of magnetohydrodynamical drag, where CME propagation is determined based on CME initial properties as well as the properties of the ambient solar wind. We present an upgraded version, covering ensemble modelling to produce a distribution of possible ICME arrival times and speeds, the drag-based ensemble model (DBEM). Multiple runs using uncertainty ranges for the input values can be performed in almost real-time, within a few minutes. This allows us to define the most likely ICME arrival times and speeds, quantify prediction uncertainties and determine forecast confidence. The performance of the DBEM is evaluated and compared to that of ensemble WSA-ENLIL+Cone model (ENLIL) using the same sample of events. It is found that the mean error is $ME=-9.7$ hours, mean absolute error $MAE=14.3$ hours and root mean square error $RMSE=16.7$ hours, which is somewhat higher than, but comparable to ENLIL errors ($ME=-6.1$ hours, $MAE=12.8$ hours and $RMSE=14.4$ hours). Overall, DBEM and ENLIL show a similar performance. Furthermore, we find that in both models fast CMEs are predicted to arrive earlier than observed, most probably owing to the physical limitations of models, but possibly also related to an overestimation of the CME initial speed for fast CMEs.
In-situ measurements carried out by spacecraft in radial alignment are critical to advance our knowledge on the evolutionary behavior of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and their magnetic structures during propagation through interplanetary space. Yet, the scarcity of radially aligned CME crossings restricts investigations on the evolution of CME magnetic structures to a few case studies, preventing a comprehensive understanding of CME complexity changes during propagation. In this paper, we perform numerical simulations of CMEs interacting with different solar wind streams using the linear force-free spheromak CME model incorporated into the EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset (EUHFORIA) model. The novelty of our approach lies in the investigation of the evolution of CME complexity using a swarm of radially aligned, simulated spacecraft. Our scope is to determine under which conditions, and to what extent, CMEs exhibit variations of their magnetic structure and complexity during propagation, as measured by spacecraft that are radially aligned. Results indicate that the interaction with large-scale solar wind structures, and particularly with stream interaction regions, doubles the probability to detect an increase of the CME magnetic complexity between two spacecraft in radial alignment, compared to cases without such interactions. This work represents the first attempt to quantify the probability of detecting complexity changes in CME magnetic structures by spacecraft in radial alignment using numerical simulations, and it provides support to the interpretation of multi-point CME observations involving past, current (such as Parker Solar Probe and Solar Orbiter), and future missions.
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) cause various disturbances of the space environment; therefore, forecasting their arrival time is very important. However, forecasting accuracy is hindered by limited CME observations in interplanetary space. This study investigates the accuracy of CME arrival times at the Earth forecasted by three-dimensional (3D) magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations based on interplanetary scintillation (IPS) observations. In this system, CMEs are approximated as spheromaks with various initial speeds. Ten MHD simulations with different CME initial speed are tested, and the density distributions derived from each simulation run are compared with IPS data observed by the Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research (ISEE), Nagoya University. The CME arrival time of the simulation run that most closely agrees with the IPS data is selected as the forecasted time. We then validate the accuracy of this forecast using 12 halo CME events. The average absolute arrival-time error of the IPS-based MHD forecast is approximately 5.0 h, which is one of the most accurate predictions that ever been validated, whereas that of MHD simulations without IPS data, in which the initial CME speed is derived from white-light coronagraph images, is approximately 6.7 h. This suggests that the assimilation of IPS data into MHD simulations can improve the accuracy of CME arrival-time forecasts. The average predicted arrival times are earlier than the actual arrival times. These early predictions may be due to overestimation of the magnetic field included in the spheromak and/or underestimation of the drag force from the background solar wind, the latter of which could be related to underestimation of CME size or background solar wind density.
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