Subscribe to the gold package and get unlimited access to Shamra Academy
Register a new userEdward: A library for probabilistic modeling, inference, and criticism
58
0
0.0
(
0
)
Ask ChatGPT about the research
No Arabic abstract
Probabilistic modeling is a powerful approach for analyzing empirical information. We describe Edward, a library for probabilistic modeling. Edwards design reflects an iterative process pioneered by George Box: build a model of a phenomenon, make inferences about the model given data, and criticize the models fit to the data. Edward supports a broad class of probabilistic models, efficient algorithms for inference, and many techniques for model criticism. The library builds on top of TensorFlow to support distributed training and hardware such as GPUs. Edward enables the development of complex probabilistic models and their algorithms at a massive scale.
rate research
Read More
It is time-consuming and error-prone to implement inference procedures for each new probabilistic model. Probabilistic programming addresses this problem by allowing a user to specify the model and having a compiler automatically generate an inference procedure for it. For this approach to be practical, it is important to generate inference code that has reasonable performance. In this paper, we present a probabilistic programming language and compiler for Bayesian networks designed to make effective use of data-parallel architectures such as GPUs. Our language is fully integrated within the Scala programming language and benefits from tools such as IDE support, type-checking, and code completion. We show that the compiler can generate data-parallel inference code scalable to thousands of GPU cores by making use of the conditional independence relationships in the Bayesian network.
Normalizing flows provide a general mechanism for defining expressive probability distributions, only requiring the specification of a (usually simple) base distribution and a series of bijective transformations. There has been much recent work on normalizing flows, ranging from improving their expressive power to expanding their application. We believe the field has now matured and is in need of a unified perspective. In this review, we attempt to provide such a perspective by describing flows through the lens of probabilistic modeling and inference. We place special emphasis on the fundamental principles of flow design, and discuss foundational topics such as expressive power and computational trade-offs. We also broaden the conceptual framing of flows by relating them to more general probability transformations. Lastly, we summarize the use of flows for tasks such as generative modeling, approximate inference, and supervised learning.
Probabilistic Latent Tensor Factorization (PLTF) is a recently proposed probabilistic framework for modelling multi-way data. Not only the common tensor factorization models but also any arbitrary tensor factorization structure can be realized by the PLTF framework. This paper presents full Bayesian inference via variational Bayes that facilitates more powerful modelling and allows more sophisticated inference on the PLTF framework. We illustrate our approach on model order selection and link prediction.
The goal of causal inference is to understand the outcome of alternative courses of action. However, all causal inference requires assumptions. Such assumptions can be more influential than in typical tasks for probabilistic modeling, and testing those assumptions is important to assess the validity of causal inference. We develop model criticism for Bayesian causal inference, building on the idea of posterior predictive checks to assess model fit. Our approach involves decomposing the problem, separately criticizing the model of treatment assignments and the model of outcomes. Conditioned on the assumption of unconfoundedness---that the treatments are assigned independently of the potential outcomes---we show how to check any additional modeling assumption. Our approach provides a foundation for diagnosing model-based causal inferences.
We present the first general purpose framework for marginal maximum a posteriori estimation of probabilistic program variables. By using a series of code transformations, the evidence of any probabilistic program, and therefore of any graphical model, can be optimized with respect to an arbitrary subset of its sampled variables. To carry out this optimization, we develop the first Bayesian optimization package to directly exploit the source code of its target, leading to innovations in problem-independent hyperpriors, unbounded optimization, and implicit constraint satisfaction; delivering significant performance improvements over prominent existing packages. We present applications of our method to a number of tasks including engineering design and parameter optimization.
suggested questions
Log in to be able to interact and post comments
comments
Fetching comments
Sign in to be able to follow your search criteria
