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Register a new userExploring Biases of Atmospheric Retrievals in Simulated JWST Transmission Spectra of Hot Jupiters
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With a scheduled launch in October 2018, the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) is expected to revolutionise the field of atmospheric characterization of exoplanets. The broad wavelength coverage and high sensitivity of its instruments will allow us to extract far more information from exoplanet spectra than what has been possible with current observations. In this paper, we investigate whether current retrieval methods will still be valid in the era of JWST, exploring common approximations used when retrieving transmission spectra of hot Jupiters. To assess biases, we use 1D photochemical models to simulate typical hot Jupiter cloud-free atmospheres and generate synthetic observations for a range of carbon-to-oxygen ratios. Then, we retrieve these spectra using TauREx, a Bayesian retrieval tool, using two methodologies: one assuming an isothermal atmosphere, and one assuming a parametrized temperature profile. Both methods assume constant-with-altitude abundances. We found that the isothermal approximation biases the retrieved parameters considerably, overestimating the abundances by about one order of magnitude. The retrieved abundances using the parametrized profile are usually within one sigma of the true state, and we found the retrieved uncertainties to be generally larger compared to the isothermal approximation. Interestingly, we found that using the parametrized temperature profile we could place tight constraints on the temperature structure. This opens the possibility to characterize the temperature profile of the terminator region of hot Jupiters. Lastly, we found that assuming a constant-with-altitude mixing ratio profile is a good approximation for most of the atmospheres under study.
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Many of the exoplanets for which we can obtain the highest SNR transit spectra are tidally locked. The atmospheres on tidally-locked planets likely exhibit large differences between the day and night side of the planet, the poles, and the morning versus evening terminators. In this paper, we illustrate how the combined effects of aerosols and day-night temperature gradients shape transit spectra of tidally-locked exoplanets when full 3D structures are taken into account and evaluate the implications for retrievals of atmospheric properties. To do this, we have developed a new code, METIS, which can compute transit spectra for an arbitrary longitude-latitude-altitude grid of temperatures and pressures. Using METIS, we pair flexible treatments of clouds and hazes with simple parameterized day-night temperature gradients to compute transit spectra and perform retrieval experiments across a wide array of possible exoplanet atmospheric properties. Our key findings are that: (1) the presence of aerosols typically increases the effects of day-night temperature gradients on transit spectra; (2) ignoring day-night temperature gradients when attempting to perform Bayesian parameter estimation will still return biased results when aerosols are present, as has already been shown for clear atmospheres in the literature; (3) when a day-night temperature gradient is present and accounted for in the retrieval model, some transit spectra can provide sufficient information to constrain temperatures and the width of the transition from day to night. The presence of clouds and hazes can actually tighten such constraints, but also weaken constraints on metallicity. This paper represents a step towards the larger goal of developing models and theory of adequate complexity to match the superior quality data that will soon be available.
Observational studies of exoplanets are suggestive of a ubiquitous presence of clouds. The current modelling techniques used in emission to account for the clouds tend to require prior knowledge of the cloud condensing species and often do not consider the scattering effects of the cloud. We explore the effects that thermal scattering has on the emission spectra by modelling a suite of hot Jupiter atmospheres with varying cloud single-scattering albedos (SSAs) and temperature profiles. We examine cases ranging from simple isothermal conditions to more complex structures and physically driven cloud modelling. We show that scattering from nightside clouds would lead to brightness temperatures that are cooler than the real atmospheric temperature if scattering is unaccounted for. We show that scattering can produce spectral signatures in the emission spectrum even for isothermal atmospheres. We identify the retrieval degeneracies and biases that arise in the context of simulated JWST spectra when the scattering from the clouds dominates the spectral shape. Finally, we propose a novel method of fitting the SSA spectrum of the cloud in emission retrievals, using a technique that does not require any prior knowledge of the cloud chemical or physical properties.
The field of exoplanet atmospheric characterization is trending towards comparative studies involving many planets, and using hierarchical modelling is a natural next step. Here we demonstrate two use cases. We first use hierarchical modelling to quantify variability in repeated observations, by reanalyzing a suite of ten Spitzer secondary eclipse observations of the hot Jupiter XO-3b. We compare three models: one where we fit ten separate eclipse depths, one where we use a single eclipse depth for all ten observations, and a hierarchical model. By comparing the Widely Applicable Information Criterion (WAIC) of each model, we show that the hierarchical model is preferred over the others. The hierarchical model yields less scatter across the suite of eclipse depths, and higher precision on the individual eclipse depths, than does fitting the observations separately. We do not detect appreciable variability in the secondary eclipses of XO-3b, in line with other analyses. Finally, we fit the suite of published dayside brightness measurements from Garhart (2020) using a hierarchical model. The hierarchical model gives tighter constraints on the individual brightness temperatures and is a better predictive model, according to the WAIC. Notably, we do not detect the increasing trend in brightness temperature ratios versus stellar irradiation reported by Garhart (2020) and Baxter (2020). Although we tested hierarchical modelling on Spitzer eclipse data of hot Jupiters, it is applicable to observations of smaller planets like hot neptunes and super earths, as well as for photometric and spectroscopic transit or phase curve observations.
We study the feasibility of observationally constraining the rotation rate of hot Jupiters, planets that are typically assumed to have been tidally locked into synchronous rotation. We use a three-dimensional General Circulation Model to solve for the atmospheric structure of two hot Jupiters (HD 189733b and HD 209458b), assuming rotation periods that are 0.5, 1, or 2 times their orbital periods (2.2 and 3.3 days, respectively), including the effect of variable stellar heating. We compare two observable properties: 1) the spatial variation of flux emitted by the planet, measurable in orbital phase curves, and 2) the net Doppler shift in transmission spectra of the atmosphere, which is tantalizingly close to being measurable in high-resolution transit spectra. Although we find little difference between the observable properties of the synchronous and non-synchronous models of HD 189733b, we see significant differences when we compare the models of HD 209458b. In particular, the slowly rotating model of HD 209458b has an atmospheric circulation pattern characterized by westward flow and an orbital phase curve that peaks after secondary eclipse (in contrast to all of our other models), while the quickly rotating model has a net Doppler shift that is more strongly blue-shifted than the other models. Our results demonstrate that the combined use of these two techniques may be a fruitful way to constrain the rotation rate of some planets, and motivate future work on this topic.
We compute models of the transmission spectra of planets HD 209458b, HD 189733b, and generic hot Jupiters. We examine the effects of temperature, surface gravity, and metallicity for the generic planets as a guide to understanding transmission spectra in general. We find that carbon dioxide absorption at 4.4 and 15 microns is prominent at high metallicity, and is a clear metallicity indicator. For HD 209458b and HD 189733b, we compute spectra for both one-dimensional and three-dimensional model atmospheres and examine the differences between them. The differences are usually small, but can be large if atmospheric temperatures are near important chemical abundance boundaries. The calculations for the 3D atmospheres, and their comparison with data, serve as constraints on these dynamical models that complement the secondary eclipse and light curve data sets. For HD 209458b, even if TiO and VO gases are abundant on the day side, their abundances can be considerably reduced on the cooler planetary limb. However, given the predicted limb temperatures and TiO abundances, the models optical opacity is too high. For HD 189733b we find a good match with some infrared data sets and constrain the altitude of a postulated haze layer. For this planet, substantial differences can exist between the transmission spectra of the leading and trailing hemispheres, which is an excellent probe of carbon chemistry. In thermochemical equilibrium, the cooler leading hemisphere is methane-dominated, and the hotter trailing hemisphere is CO-dominated, but these differences may be eliminated by non-equilibrium chemistry due to vertical mixing. It may be possible to constrain the carbon chemistry of this planet, and its spatial variation, with JWST.
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