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Register a new userThe discriminative Kalman filter for nonlinear and non-Gaussian sequential Bayesian filtering
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David Brandman
Publication date
2016
fields
Mathematical Statistics
and research's language is
English
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The Kalman filter (KF) is used in a variety of applications for computing the posterior distribution of latent states in a state space model. The model requires a linear relationship between states and observations. Extensions to the Kalman filter have been proposed that incorporate linear approximations to nonlinear models, such as the extended Kalman filter (EKF) and the unscented Kalman filter (UKF). However, we argue that in cases where the dimensionality of observed variables greatly exceeds the dimensionality of state variables, a model for $p(text{state}|text{observation})$ proves both easier to learn and more accurate for latent space estimation. We derive and validate what we call the discriminative Kalman filter (DKF): a closed-form discriminative version of Bayesian filtering that readily incorporates off-the-shelf discriminative learning techniques. Further, we demonstrate that given mild assumptions, highly non-linear models for $p(text{state}|text{observation})$ can be specified. We motivate and validate on synthetic datasets and in neural decoding from non-human primates, showing substantial increases in decoding performance versus the standard Kalman filter.
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Many state estimation and control algorithms require knowledge of how probability distributions propagate through dynamical systems. However, despite hybrid dynamical systems becoming increasingly important in many fields, there has been little work on utilizing the knowledge of how probability distributions map through hybrid transitions. Here, we make use of a propagation law that employs the saltation matrix (a first-order update to the sensitivity equation) to create the Salted Kalman Filter (SKF), a natural extension of the Kalman Filter and Extended Kalman Filter to hybrid dynamical systems. Away from hybrid events, the SKF is a standard Kalman filter. When a hybrid event occurs, the saltation matrix plays an analogous role as that of the system dynamics, subsequently inducing a discrete modification to both the prediction and update steps. The SKF outperforms a naive variational update - the Jacobian of the reset map - by having a reduced mean squared error in state estimation, especially immediately after a hybrid transition event. Compared a hybrid particle filter, the particle filter outperforms the SKF in mean squared error only when a large number of particles are used, likely due to a more accurate accounting of the split distribution near a hybrid transition.
This article presents an up-to-date tutorial review of nonlinear Bayesian estimation. State estimation for nonlinear systems has been a challenge encountered in a wide range of engineering fields, attracting decades of research effort. To date, one of the most promising and popular approaches is to view and address the problem from a Bayesian probabilistic perspective, which enables estimation of the unknown state variables by tracking their probabilistic distribution or statistics (e.g., mean and covariance) conditioned on the systems measurement data. This article offers a systematic introduction of the Bayesian state estimation framework and reviews various Kalman filtering (KF) techniques, progressively from the standard KF for linear systems to extended KF, unscented KF and ensemble KF for nonlinear systems. It also overviews other prominent or emerging Bayesian estimation methods including the Gaussian filtering, Gaussian-sum filtering, particle filtering and moving horizon estimation and extends the discussion of state estimation forward to more complicated problems such as simultaneous state and parameter/input estimation.
Variational Inference (VI) combined with Bayesian nonlinear filtering produces the state-of-the-art results for latent trajectory inference. A body of recent works focused on Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) and its expansion, e.g., Forward Filtering Backward Simulation (FFBSi). These studies achieved a great success, however, remain a serious problem for particle degeneracy. In this paper, we propose Ensemble Kalman Objectives (EnKOs), the hybrid method of VI and Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF), to infer the State Space Models (SSMs). Unlike the SMC based methods, the our proposed method can identify the latent dynamics given fewer particles because of its rich particle diversity. We demonstrate that EnKOs outperform the SMC based methods in terms of predictive ability for three benchmark nonlinear dynamics systems tasks.
Many state estimation algorithms must be tuned given the state space process and observation models, the process and observation noise parameters must be chosen. Conventional tuning approaches rely on heuristic hand-tuning or gradient-based optimization techniques to minimize a performance cost function. However, the relationship between tuned noise values and estimator performance is highly nonlinear and stochastic. Therefore, the tuning solutions can easily get trapped in local minima, which can lead to poor choices of noise parameters and suboptimal estimator performance. This paper describes how Bayesian Optimization (BO) can overcome these issues. BO poses optimization as a Bayesian search problem for a stochastic ``black box cost function, where the goal is to search the solution space to maximize the probability of improving the current best solution. As such, BO offers a principled approach to optimization-based estimator tuning in the presence of local minima and performance stochasticity. While extended Kalman filters (EKFs) are the main focus of this work, BO can be similarly used to tune other related state space filters. The method presented here uses performance metrics derived from normalized innovation squared (NIS) filter residuals obtained via sensor data, which renders knowledge of ground-truth states unnecessary. The robustness, accuracy, and reliability of BO-based tuning is illustrated on practical nonlinear state estimation problems,losed-loop aero-robotic control.
Kalman Filter (KF) is widely used in various domains to perform sequential learning or variable estimation. In the context of autonomous vehicles, KF constitutes the core component of many Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS), such as Forward Collision Warning (FCW). It tracks the states (distance, velocity etc.) of relevant traffic objects based on sensor measurements. The tracking output of KF is often fed into downstream logic to produce alerts, which will then be used by human drivers to make driving decisions in near-collision scenarios. In this paper, we study adversarial attacks on KF as part of the more complex machine-human hybrid system of Forward Collision Warning. Our attack goal is to negatively affect human braking decisions by causing KF to output incorrect state estimations that lead to false or delayed alerts. We accomplish this by sequentially manipulating measure ments fed into the KF, and propose a novel Model Predictive Control (MPC) approach to compute the optimal manipulation. Via experiments conducted in a simulated driving environment, we show that the attacker is able to successfully change FCW alert signals through planned manipulation over measurements prior to the desired target time. These results demonstrate that our attack can stealthily mislead a distracted human driver and cause vehicle collisions.
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