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Register a new userInference from the small scales of cosmic shear with current and future Dark Energy Survey data
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Cosmic shear is sensitive to fluctuations in the cosmological matter density field, including on small physical scales, where matter clustering is affected by baryonic physics in galaxies and galaxy clusters, such as star formation, supernovae feedback and AGN feedback. While muddying any cosmological information that is contained in small scale cosmic shear measurements, this does mean that cosmic shear has the potential to constrain baryonic physics and galaxy formation. We perform an analysis of the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Science Verification (SV) cosmic shear measurements, now extended to smaller scales, and using the Mead et al. 2015 halo model to account for baryonic feedback. While the SV data has limited statistical power, we demonstrate using a simulated likelihood analysis that the final DES data will have the statistical power to differentiate among baryonic feedback scenarios. We also explore some of the difficulties in interpreting the small scales in cosmic shear measurements, presenting estimates of the size of several other systematic effects that make inference from small scales difficult, including uncertainty in the modelling of intrinsic alignment on nonlinear scales, `lensing bias, and shape measurement selection effects. For the latter two, we make use of novel image simulations. While future cosmic shear datasets have the statistical power to constrain baryonic feedback scenarios, there are several systematic effects that require improved treatments, in order to make robust conclusions about baryonic feedback.
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This work, together with its companion paper, Secco and Samuroff et al. (2021), presents the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 cosmic shear measurements and cosmological constraints based on an analysis of over 100 million source galaxies. With the data spanning 4143 deg$^2$ on the sky, divided into four redshift bins, we produce the highest significance measurement of cosmic shear to date, with a signal-to-noise of 40. We conduct a blind analysis in the context of the $Lambda$CDM model and find a 3% constraint of the clustering amplitude, $S_8equiv sigma_8 (Omega_{rm m}/0.3)^{0.5} = 0.759^{+0.025}_{-0.023}$. A $Lambda$CDM-Optimized analysis, which safely includes smaller scale information, yields a 2% precision measurement of $S_8= 0.772^{+0.018}_{-0.017}$ that is consistent with the fiducial case. The two low-redshift measurements are statistically consistent with the Planck Cosmic Microwave Background result, however, both recovered $S_8$ values are lower than the high-redshift prediction by $2.3sigma$ and $2.1sigma$ ($p$-values of 0.02 and 0.05), respectively. The measurements are shown to be internally consistent across redshift bins, angular scales and correlation functions. The analysis is demonstrated to be robust to calibration systematics, with the $S_8$ posterior consistent when varying the choice of redshift calibration sample, the modeling of redshift uncertainty and methodology. Similarly, we find that the corrections included to account for the blending of galaxies shifts our best-fit $S_8$ by $0.5sigma$ without incurring a substantial increase in uncertainty. We examine the limiting factors for the precision of the cosmological constraints and find observational systematics to be subdominant to the modeling of astrophysics. Specifically, we identify the uncertainties in modeling baryonic effects and intrinsic alignments as the limiting systematics.
We use 26 million galaxies from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 1 shape catalogs over 1321 deg$^2$ of the sky to produce the most significant measurement of cosmic shear in a galaxy survey to date. We constrain cosmological parameters in both the flat $Lambda$CDM and $w$CDM models, while also varying the neutrino mass density. These results are shown to be robust using two independent shape catalogs, two independent photoz calibration methods, and two independent analysis pipelines in a blind analysis. We find a 3.5% fractional uncertainty on $sigma_8(Omega_m/0.3)^{0.5} = 0.782^{+0.027}_{-0.027}$ at 68% CL, which is a factor of 2.5 improvement over the fractional constraining power of our DES Science Verification results. In $w$CDM, we find a 4.8% fractional uncertainty on $sigma_8(Omega_m/0.3)^{0.5} = 0.777^{+0.036}_{-0.038}$ and a dark energy equation-of-state $w=-0.95^{+0.33}_{-0.39}$. We find results that are consistent with previous cosmic shear constraints in $sigma_8$ -- $Omega_m$, and see no evidence for disagreement of our weak lensing data with data from the CMB. Finally, we find no evidence preferring a $w$CDM model allowing $w e -1$. We expect further significant improvements with subsequent years of DES data, which will more than triple the sky coverage of our shape catalogs and double the effective integrated exposure time per galaxy.
Density-estimation likelihood-free inference (DELFI) has recently been proposed as an efficient method for simulation-based cosmological parameter inference. Compared to the standard likelihood-based Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach, DELFI has several advantages: it is highly parallelizable, there is no need to assume a possibly incorrect functional form for the likelihood and complicated effects (e.g the mask and detector systematics) are easier to handle with forward models. In light of this, we present two DELFI pipelines to perform weak lensing parameter inference with lognormal realizations of the tomographic shear field -- using the C_l summary statistic. The first pipeline accounts for the non-Gaussianities of the shear field, intrinsic alignments and photometric-redshift error. We validate that it is accurate enough for Stage III experiments and estimate that O(1000) simulations are needed to perform inference on Stage IV data. By comparing the second DELFI pipeline, which makes no assumption about the functional form of the likelihood, with the standard MCMC approach, which assumes a Gaussian likelihood, we test the impact of the Gaussian likelihood approximation in the MCMC analysis. We find it has a negligible impact on Stage IV parameter constraints. Our pipeline is a step towards seamlessly propagating all data-processing, instrumental, theoretical and astrophysical systematics through to the final parameter constraints.
This work and its companion paper, Amon et al. (2021), present cosmic shear measurements and cosmological constraints from over 100 million source galaxies in the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 3 data. We constrain the lensing amplitude parameter $S_8equivsigma_8sqrt{Omega_textrm{m}/0.3}$ at the 3% level in $Lambda$CDM: $S_8=0.759^{+0.025}_{-0.023}$ (68% CL). Our constraint is at the 2% level when using angular scale cuts that are optimized for the $Lambda$CDM analysis: $S_8=0.772^{+0.018}_{-0.017}$ (68% CL). With cosmic shear alone, we find no statistically significant constraint on the dark energy equation-of-state parameter at our present statistical power. We carry out our analysis blind, and compare our measurement with constraints from two other contemporary weak-lensing experiments: the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS) and Hyper-Suprime Camera Subaru Strategic Program (HSC). We additionally quantify the agreement between our data and external constraints from the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB). Our DES Y3 result under the assumption of $Lambda$CDM is found to be in statistical agreement with Planck 2018, although favors a lower $S_8$ than the CMB-inferred value by $2.3sigma$ (a $p$-value of 0.02). This paper explores the robustness of these cosmic shear results to modeling of intrinsic alignments, the matter power spectrum and baryonic physics. We additionally explore the statistical preference of our data for intrinsic alignment models of different complexity. The fiducial cosmic shear model is tested using synthetic data, and we report no biases greater than 0.3$sigma$ in the plane of $S_8timesOmega_textrm{m}$ caused by uncertainties in the theoretical models.
We present a new method, called $x$-cut cosmic shear, which optimally removes sensitivity to poorly modeled scales from the two-point cosmic shear signal. We show that the $x$-cut cosmic shear covariance matrix can be computed from the correlation function covariance matrix in a few minutes, enabling a likelihood analysis at virtually no additional computational cost. Further we show how to generalize $x$-cut cosmic shear to galaxy-galaxy lensing. Performing an $x$-cut cosmic shear analysis of the Dark Energy Survey Year 1 (DESY1) shear data, we reduce the error on $S_8= sigma_8 (Omega_m / 0.3) ^ {0.5}$ by $32 %$ relative to a correlation function analysis with the same priors and angular scale cut criterion, while showing our constraints are robust to different baryonic feedback models. Largely driven by information at small angular scales, our result, $S_8= 0.734 pm 0.026$, yields a $2.6 sigma$ tension with the Planck Legacy analysis of the cosmic microwave background. As well as alleviating baryonic modelling uncertainties, our method can be used to optimally constrain a large number of theories of modified gravity where computational limitations make it infeasible to model the power spectrum down to extremely small scales. The key parts of our code are made publicly available.
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