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Register a new userDelocalized Epidemics on Graphs: A Maximum Entropy Approach
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The susceptible--infected--susceptible (SIS) epidemic process on complex networks can show metastability, resembling an endemic equilibrium. In a general setting, the metastable state may involve a large portion of the network, or it can be localized on small subgraphs of the contact network. Localized infections are not interesting because a true outbreak concerns network--wide invasion of the contact graph rather than localized infection of certain sites within the contact network. Existing approaches to localization phenomenon suffer from a major drawback: they fully rely on the steady--state solution of mean--field approximate models in the neighborhood of their phase transition point, where their approximation accuracy is worst; as statistical physics tells us. We propose a dispersion entropy measure that quantifies the localization of infections in a generic contact graph. Formulating a maximum entropy problem, we find an upper bound for the dispersion entropy of the possible metastable state in the exact SIS process. As a result, we find sufficient conditions such that any initial infection over the network either dies out or reaches a localized metastable state. Unlike existing studies relying on the solution of mean--field approximate models, our investigation of epidemic localization is based on characteristics of exact SIS equations. Our proposed method offers a new paradigm in studying spreading processes over complex networks.
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Epidemic propagation on complex networks has been widely investigated, mostly with invariant parameters. However, the process of epidemic propagation is not always constant. Epidemics can be affected by various perturbations, and may bounce back to its original state, which is considered resilient. Here, we study the resilience of epidemics on networks, by introducing a different infection rate ${lambda_{2}}$ during SIS (susceptible-infected-susceptible) epidemic propagation to model perturbations (control state), whereas the infection rate is ${lambda_{1}}$ in the rest of time. Through simulations and theoretical analysis, we find that even for ${lambda_{2}<lambda_{c}}$, epidemics eventually could bounce back if control duration is below a threshold. This critical control time for epidemic resilience, i.e., ${cd_{max}}$ can be predicted by the diameter (${d}$) of the underlying network, with the quantitative relation ${cd_{max}sim d^{alpha}}$. Our findings can help to design a better mitigation strategy for epidemics.
Networks provide an informative, yet non-redundant description of complex systems only if links represent truly dyadic relationships that cannot be directly traced back to node-specific properties such as size, importance, or coordinates in some embedding space. In any real-world network, some links may be reducible, and others irreducible, to such local properties. This dichotomy persists despite the steady increase in data availability and resolution, which actually determines an even stronger need for filtering techniques aimed at discerning essential links from non-essential ones. Here we introduce a rigorous method that, for any desired level of statistical significance, outputs the network backbone that is irreducible to the local properties of nodes, i.e. their degrees and strengths. Unlike previous approaches, our method employs an exact maximum-entropy formulation guaranteeing that the filtered network encodes only the links that cannot be inferred from local information. Extensive empirical analysis confirms that this approach uncovers essential backbones that are otherwise hidden amidst many redundant relationships and inaccessible to other methods. For instance, we retrieve the hub-and-spoke skeleton of the US airport network and many specialised patterns of international trade. Being irreducible to local transportation and economic constraints of supply and demand, these backbones single out genuinely higher-order wiring principles.
Bipartite networks are currently regarded as providing a major insight into the organization of many real-world systems, unveiling the mechanisms driving the interactions occurring between distinct groups of nodes. One of the most important issues encountered when modeling bipartite networks is devising a way to obtain a (monopartite) projection on the layer of interest, which preserves as much as possible the information encoded into the original bipartite structure. In the present paper we propose an algorithm to obtain statistically-validated projections of bipartite networks, according to which any two nodes sharing a statistically-significant number of neighbors are linked. Since assessing the statistical significance of nodes similarity requires a proper statistical benchmark, here we consider a set of four null models, defined within the exponential random graph framework. Our algorithm outputs a matrix of link-specific p-values, from which a validated projection is straightforwardly obtainable, upon running a multiple hypothesis testing procedure. Finally, we test our method on an economic network (i.e. the countries-products World Trade Web representation) and a social network (i.e. MovieLens, collecting the users ratings of a list of movies). In both cases non-trivial communities are detected: while projecting the World Trade Web on the countries layer reveals modules of similarly-industrialized nations, projecting it on the products layer allows communities characterized by an increasing level of complexity to be detected; in the second case, projecting MovieLens on the films layer allows clusters of movies whose affinity cannot be fully accounted for by genre similarity to be individuated.
In epidemic modeling, the term infection strength indicates the ratio of infection rate and cure rate. If the infection strength is higher than a certain threshold -- which we define as the epidemic threshold - then the epidemic spreads through the population and persists in the long run. For a single generic graph representing the contact network of the population under consideration, the epidemic threshold turns out to be equal to the inverse of the spectral radius of the contact graph. However, in a real world scenario it is not possible to isolate a population completely: there is always some interconnection with another network, which partially overlaps with the contact network. Results for epidemic threshold in interconnected networks are limited to homogeneous mixing populations and degree distribution arguments. In this paper, we adopt a spectral approach. We show how the epidemic threshold in a given network changes as a result of being coupled with another network with fixed infection strength. In our model, the contact network and the interconnections are generic. Using bifurcation theory and algebraic graph theory, we rigorously derive the epidemic threshold in interconnected networks. These results have implications for the broad field of epidemic modeling and control. Our analytical results are supported by numerical simulations.
The spread of opinions, memes, diseases, and alternative facts in a population depends both on the details of the spreading process and on the structure of the social and communication networks on which they spread. In this paper, we explore how textit{anti-establishment} nodes (e.g., textit{hipsters}) influence the spreading dynamics of two competing products. We consider a model in which spreading follows a deterministic rule for updating node states (which describe which product has been adopted) in which an adjustable fraction $p_{rm Hip}$ of the nodes in a network are hipsters, who choose to adopt the product that they believe is the less popular of the two. The remaining nodes are conformists, who choose which product to adopt by considering which products their immediate neighbors have adopted. We simulate our model on both synthetic and real networks, and we show that the hipsters have a major effect on the final fraction of people who adopt each product: even when only one of the two products exists at the beginning of the simulations, a very small fraction of hipsters in a network can still cause the other product to eventually become the more popular one. To account for this behavior, we construct an approximation for the steady-state adoption fraction on $k$-regular trees in the limit of few hipsters. Additionally, our simulations demonstrate that a time delay $tau$ in the knowledge of the product distribution in a population, as compared to immediate knowledge of product adoption among nearest neighbors, can have a large effect on the final distribution of product adoptions. Our simple model and analysis may help shed light on the road to success for anti-establishment choices in elections, as such success can arise rather generically in our model from a small number of anti-establishment individuals and ordinary processes of social influence on normal individuals.
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