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Register a new userOn Bayesian index policies for sequential resource allocation
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Added by
Emilie Kaufmann
Publication date
2016
fields
Mathematical Statistics
and research's language is
English
Authors
Emilie Kaufmann
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This paper is about index policies for minimizing (frequentist) regret in a stochastic multi-armed bandit model, inspired by a Bayesian view on the problem. Our main contribution is to prove that the Bayes-UCB algorithm, which relies on quantiles of posterior distributions, is asymptotically optimal when the reward distributions belong to a one-dimensional exponential family, for a large class of prior distributions. We also show that the Bayesian literature gives new insight on what kind of exploration rates could be used in frequentist, UCB-type algorithms. Indeed, approximations of the Bayesian optimal solution or the Finite Horizon Gittins indices provide a justification for the kl-UCB+ and kl-UCB-H+ algorithms, whose asymptotic optimality is also established.
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We introduce Deep Adaptive Design (DAD), a method for amortizing the cost of adaptive Bayesian experimental design that allows experiments to be run in real-time. Traditional sequential Bayesian optimal experimental design approaches require substantial computation at each stage of the experiment. This makes them unsuitable for most real-world applications, where decisions must typically be made quickly. DAD addresses this restriction by learning an amortized design network upfront and then using this to rapidly run (multiple) adaptive experiments at deployment time. This network represents a design policy which takes as input the data from previous steps, and outputs the next design using a single forward pass; these design decisions can be made in milliseconds during the live experiment. To train the network, we introduce contrastive information bounds that are suitable objectives for the sequential setting, and propose a customized network architecture that exploits key symmetries. We demonstrate that DAD successfully amortizes the process of experimental design, outperforming alternative strategies on a number of problems.
The Kalman filter (KF) is used in a variety of applications for computing the posterior distribution of latent states in a state space model. The model requires a linear relationship between states and observations. Extensions to the Kalman filter have been proposed that incorporate linear approximations to nonlinear models, such as the extended Kalman filter (EKF) and the unscented Kalman filter (UKF). However, we argue that in cases where the dimensionality of observed variables greatly exceeds the dimensionality of state variables, a model for $p(text{state}|text{observation})$ proves both easier to learn and more accurate for latent space estimation. We derive and validate what we call the discriminative Kalman filter (DKF): a closed-form discriminative version of Bayesian filtering that readily incorporates off-the-shelf discriminative learning techniques. Further, we demonstrate that given mild assumptions, highly non-linear models for $p(text{state}|text{observation})$ can be specified. We motivate and validate on synthetic datasets and in neural decoding from non-human primates, showing substantial increases in decoding performance versus the standard Kalman filter.
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