No Arabic abstract
This work relates the framework of model-based clustering for spatial functional data where the data are surfaces. We first introduce a Bayesian spatial spline regression model with mixed-effects (BSSR) for modeling spatial function data. The BSSR model is based on Nodal basis functions for spatial regression and accommodates both common mean behavior for the data through a fixed-effects part, and variability inter-individuals thanks to a random-effects part. Then, in order to model populations of spatial functional data issued from heterogeneous groups, we integrate the BSSR model into a mixture framework. The resulting model is a Bayesian mixture of spatial spline regressions with mixed-effects (BMSSR) used for density estimation and model-based surface clustering. The models, through their Bayesian formulation, allow to integrate possible prior knowledge on the data structure and constitute a good alternative to recent mixture of spatial spline regressions model estimated in a maximum likelihood framework via the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. The Bayesian model inference is performed by Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. We derive two Gibbs sampler to infer the BSSR and the BMSSR models and apply them on simulated surfaces and a real problem of handwritten digit recognition using the MNIST data set. The obtained results highlight the potential benefit of the proposed Bayesian approaches for modeling surfaces possibly dispersed in particular in clusters.
To fast approximate maximum likelihood estimators with massive data, this paper studies the Optimal Subsampling Method under the A-optimality Criterion (OSMAC) for generalized linear models. The consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimator from a general subsampling algorithm are established, and optimal subsampling probabilities under the A- and L-optimality criteria are derived. Furthermore, using Frobenius norm matrix concentration inequalities, finite sample properties of the subsample estimator based on optimal subsampling probabilities are also derived. Since the optimal subsampling probabilities depend on the full data estimate, an adaptive two-step algorithm is developed. Asymptotic normality and optimality of the estimator from this adaptive algorithm are established. The proposed methods are illustrated and evaluated through numerical experiments on simulated and real datasets.
In spatial statistics, it is often assumed that the spatial field of interest is stationary and its covariance has a simple parametric form, but these assumptions are not appropriate in many applications. Given replicate observations of a Gaussian spatial field, we propose nonstationary and nonparametric Bayesian inference on the spatial dependence. Instead of estimating the quadratic (in the number of spatial locations) entries of the covariance matrix, the idea is to infer a near-linear number of nonzero entries in a sparse Cholesky factor of the precision matrix. Our prior assumptions are motivated by recent results on the exponential decay of the entries of this Cholesky factor for Matern-type covariances under a specific ordering scheme. Our methods are highly scalable and parallelizable. We conduct numerical comparisons and apply our methodology to climate-model output, enabling statistical emulation of an expensive physical model.
The use of a finite mixture of normal distributions in model-based clustering allows to capture non-Gaussian data clusters. However, identifying the clusters from the normal components is challenging and in general either achieved by imposing constraints on the model or by using post-processing procedures. Within the Bayesian framework we propose a different approach based on sparse finite mixtures to achieve identifiability. We specify a hierarchical prior where the hyperparameters are carefully selected such that they are reflective of the cluster structure aimed at. In addition this prior allows to estimate the model using standard MCMC sampling methods. In combination with a post-processing approach which resolves the label switching issue and results in an identified model, our approach allows to simultaneously (1) determine the number of clusters, (2) flexibly approximate the cluster distributions in a semi-parametric way using finite mixtures of normals and (3) identify cluster-specific parameters and classify observations. The proposed approach is illustrated in two simulation studies and on benchmark data sets.
A multivariate distribution can be described by a triangular transport map from the target distribution to a simple reference distribution. We propose Bayesian nonparametric inference on the transport map by modeling its components using Gaussian processes. This enables regularization and accounting for uncertainty in the map estimation, while still resulting in a closed-form and invertible posterior map. We then focus on inferring the distribution of a nonstationary spatial field from a small number of replicates. We develop specific transport-map priors that are highly flexible and are motivated by the behavior of a large class of stochastic processes. Our approach is scalable to high-dimensional fields due to data-dependent sparsity and parallel computations. We also discuss extensions, including Dirichlet process mixtures for marginal non-Gaussianity. We present numerical results to demonstrate the accuracy, scalability, and usefulness of our methods, including statistical emulation of non-Gaussian climate-model output.
Regression models with crossed random effect errors can be very expensive to compute. The cost of both generalized least squares and Gibbs sampling can easily grow as $N^{3/2}$ (or worse) for $N$ observations. Papaspiliopoulos et al. (2020) present a collapsed Gibbs sampler that costs $O(N)$, but under an extremely stringent sampling model. We propose a backfitting algorithm to compute a generalized least squares estimate and prove that it costs $O(N)$. A critical part of the proof is in ensuring that the number of iterations required is $O(1)$ which follows from keeping a certain matrix norm below $1-delta$ for some $delta>0$. Our conditions are greatly relaxed compared to those for the collapsed Gibbs sampler, though still strict. Empirically, the backfitting algorithm has a norm below $1-delta$ under conditions that are less strict than those in our assumptions. We illustrate the new algorithm on a ratings data set from Stitch Fix.