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Register a new userScalable Bayesian transport maps for high-dimensional non-Gaussian spatial fields
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Added by
Matthias Katzfuss
Publication date
2021
fields
Mathematical Statistics
and research's language is
English
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A multivariate distribution can be described by a triangular transport map from the target distribution to a simple reference distribution. We propose Bayesian nonparametric inference on the transport map by modeling its components using Gaussian processes. This enables regularization and accounting for uncertainty in the map estimation, while still resulting in a closed-form and invertible posterior map. We then focus on inferring the distribution of a nonstationary spatial field from a small number of replicates. We develop specific transport-map priors that are highly flexible and are motivated by the behavior of a large class of stochastic processes. Our approach is scalable to high-dimensional fields due to data-dependent sparsity and parallel computations. We also discuss extensions, including Dirichlet process mixtures for marginal non-Gaussianity. We present numerical results to demonstrate the accuracy, scalability, and usefulness of our methods, including statistical emulation of non-Gaussian climate-model output.
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We consider the problem of variable selection in high-dimensional settings with missing observations among the covariates. To address this relatively understudied problem, we propose a new synergistic procedure -- adaptive Bayesian SLOPE -- which effectively combines the SLOPE method (sorted $l_1$ regularization) together with the Spike-and-Slab LASSO method. We position our approach within a Bayesian framework which allows for simultaneous variable selection and parameter estimation, despite the missing values. As with the Spike-and-Slab LASSO, the coefficients are regarded as arising from a hierarchical model consisting of two groups: (1) the spike for the inactive and (2) the slab for the active. However, instead of assigning independent spike priors for each covariate, here we deploy a joint SLOPE spike prior which takes into account the ordering of coefficient magnitudes in order to control for false discoveries. Through extensive simulations, we demonstrate satisfactory performance in terms of power, FDR and estimation bias under a wide range of scenarios. Finally, we analyze a real dataset consisting of patients from Paris hospitals who underwent a severe trauma, where we show excellent performance in predicting platelet levels. Our methodology has been implemented in C++ and wrapped into an R package ABSLOPE for public use.
In spatial statistics, it is often assumed that the spatial field of interest is stationary and its covariance has a simple parametric form, but these assumptions are not appropriate in many applications. Given replicate observations of a Gaussian spatial field, we propose nonstationary and nonparametric Bayesian inference on the spatial dependence. Instead of estimating the quadratic (in the number of spatial locations) entries of the covariance matrix, the idea is to infer a near-linear number of nonzero entries in a sparse Cholesky factor of the precision matrix. Our prior assumptions are motivated by recent results on the exponential decay of the entries of this Cholesky factor for Matern-type covariances under a specific ordering scheme. Our methods are highly scalable and parallelizable. We conduct numerical comparisons and apply our methodology to climate-model output, enabling statistical emulation of an expensive physical model.
We propose a framework for Bayesian non-parametric estimation of the rate at which new infections occur assuming that the epidemic is partially observed. The developed methodology relies on modelling the rate at which new infections occur as a function which only depends on time. Two different types of prior distributions are proposed namely using step-functions and B-splines. The methodology is illustrated using both simulated and real datasets and we show that certain aspects of the epidemic such as seasonality and super-spreading events are picked up without having to explicitly incorporate them into a parametric model.
In this paper, a Bayesian semiparametric copula approach is used to model the underlying multivariate distribution $F_{true}$. First, the Dirichlet process is constructed on the unknown marginal distributions of $F_{true}$. Then a Gaussian copula model is utilized to capture the dependence structure of $F_{true}$. As a result, a Bayesian multivariate normality test is developed by combining the relative belief ratio and the Energy distance. Several interesting theoretical results of the approach are derived. Finally, through several simulated examples and a real data set, the proposed approach reveals excellent performance.
When fitting statistical models, some predictors are often found to be correlated with each other, and functioning together. Many group variable selection methods are developed to select the groups of predictors that are closely related to the continuous or categorical response. These existing methods usually assume the group structures are well known. For example, variables with similar practical meaning, or dummy variables created by categorical data. However, in practice, it is impractical to know the exact group structure, especially when the variable dimensional is large. As a result, the group variable selection results may be selected. To solve the challenge, we propose a two-stage approach that combines a variable clustering stage and a group variable stage for the group variable selection problem. The variable clustering stage uses information from the data to find a group structure, which improves the performance of the existing group variable selection methods. For ultrahigh dimensional data, where the predictors are much larger than observations, we incorporated a variable screening method in the first stage and shows the advantages of such an approach. In this article, we compared and discussed the performance of four existing group variable selection methods under different simulation models, with and without the variable clustering stage. The two-stage method shows a better performance, in terms of the prediction accuracy, as well as in the accuracy to select active predictors. An athletes data is also used to show the advantages of the proposed method.
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