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Register a new userValidation of Twelve Small Kepler Transiting Planets in the Habitable Zone
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We present an investigation of twelve candidate transiting planets from Kepler with orbital periods ranging from 34 to 207 days, selected from initial indications that they are small and potentially in the habitable zone (HZ) of their parent stars. Few of these objects are known. The expected Doppler signals are too small to confirm them by demonstrating that their masses are in the planetary regime. Here we verify their planetary nature by validating them statistically using the BLENDER technique, which simulates large numbers of false positives and compares the resulting light curves with the Kepler photometry. This analysis was supplemented with new follow-up observations (high-resolution optical and near-infrared spectroscopy, adaptive optics imaging, and speckle interferometry), as well as an analysis of the flux centroids. For eleven of them (KOI-0571.05, 1422.04, 1422.05, 2529.02, 3255.01, 3284.01, 4005.01, 4087.01, 4622.01, 4742.01, and 4745.01) we show that the likelihood they are true planets is far greater than that of a false positive, to a confidence level of 99.73% (3 sigma) or higher. For KOI-4427.01 the confidence level is about 99.2% (2.6 sigma). With our accurate characterization of the GKM host stars, the derived planetary radii range from 1.1 to 2.7 R_Earth. All twelve objects are confirmed to be in the HZ, and nine are small enough to be rocky. Excluding three of them that have been previously validated by others, our study doubles the number of known rocky planets in the HZ. KOI-3284.01 (Kepler-438b) and KOI-4742.01 (Kepler-442b) are the planets most similar to the Earth discovered to date when considering their size and incident flux jointly.
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A main goal of NASAs Kepler Mission is to establish the frequency of potentially habitable Earth-size planets (eta Earth). Relatively few such candidates identified by the mission can be confirmed to be rocky via dynamical measurement of their mass. Here we report an effort to validate 18 of them statistically using the BLENDER technique, by showing that the likelihood they are true planets is far greater than that of a false positive. Our analysis incorporates follow-up observations including high-resolution optical and near-infrared spectroscopy, high-resolution imaging, and information from the analysis of the flux centroids of the Kepler observations themselves. While many of these candidates have been previously validated by others, the confidence levels reported typically ignore the possibility that the planet may transit a different star than the target along the same line of sight. If that were the case, a planet that appears small enough to be rocky may actually be considerably larger and therefore less interesting from the point of view of habitability. We take this into consideration here, and are able to validate 15 of our candidates at a 99.73% (3 sigma) significance level or higher, and the other three at slightly lower confidence. We characterize the GKM host stars using available ground-based observations and provide updated parameters for the planets, with sizes between 0.8 and 2.9 Earth radii. Seven of them (KOI-0438.02, 0463.01, 2418.01, 2626.01, 3282.01, 4036.01, and 5856.01) have a better than 50% chance of being smaller than 2 Earth radii and being in the habitable zone of their host stars.
The Kepler-1647 is a binary system with two Sun-type stars (approximately 1.22 and 0.97 Solar mass). It has the most massive circumbinary planet (1.52 Jupiter mass) with the longest orbital period (1,107.6 days) detected by the Kepler probe and is located within the habitable zone (HZ) of the system. In this work, we investigated the ability to form and house an Earth-sized planet within its HZ. First, we computed the limits of its HZ and performed numerical stability tests within that region. We found that HZ has three sub-regions that show stability, one internal, one co-orbital, and external to the host planet Kepler-1647b. Within the limits of these three regions, we performed numerical simulations of planetary formation. In the regions inner and outer to the planet, we used two different density profiles to explore different conditions of formation. In the co-orbital region, we used eight different values of total disc mass. We showed that many resonances are located within regions causing much of the disc material to be ejected before a planet is formed. Thus, the system might have two asteroid belts with Kirkwood gaps, similar to the Solar Systems main belt of asteroids. The co-orbital region proved to be extremely sensitive, not allowing the planet formation, but showing that this binary system has the capacity to have Trojan bodies. Finally, we looked for regions of stability for an Earth-sized moon. We found that there is stability for a moon with this mass up to 0.4 Hills radius from the host planet.
The discovery of many planets using the Kepler telescope includes ten planets orbiting eight binary stars. Three binaries, Kepler-16, Kepler-47, and Kepler-453, have at least one planet in the circumbinary habitable-zone (BHZ). We constrain the level of high-energy radiation and the plasma environment in the BHZ of these systems. With this aim, BHZ limits in these Kepler binaries are calculated as a function of time, and the habitability lifetimes are estimated for hypothetical terrestrial planets and/or moons within the BHZ. With the time-dependent BHZ limits established, a self-consistent model is developed describing the evolution of stellar activity and radiation properties as proxies for stellar aggression toward planetary atmospheres. Modeling binary stellar rotation evolution, including the effect of tidal interaction between stars in binaries is key to establishing the environment around these systems. We find that Kepler-16 and its binary analogs provide a plasma environment favorable for the survival of atmospheres of putative Mars-sized planets and exomoons. Tides have modified the rotation of the stars in Kepler-47 making its radiation environment less harsh in comparison to the solar system. This is a good example of the mechanism first proposed by Mason et al. Kepler-453 has an environment similar to that of the solar system with slightly better than Earth radiation conditions at the inner edge of the BHZ. These results can be reproduced and even reparametrized as stellar evolution and binary tidal models progress, using our online tool http://bhmcalc.net.
We present occurrence rates for rocky planets in the habitable zones (HZ) of main-sequence dwarf stars based on the Kepler DR25 planet candidate catalog and Gaia-based stellar properties. We provide the first analysis in terms of star-dependent instellation flux, which allows us to track HZ planets. We define $eta_oplus$ as the HZ occurrence of planets with radius between 0.5 and 1.5 $R_oplus$ orbiting stars with effective temperatures between 4800 K and 6300 K. We find that $eta_oplus$ for the conservative HZ is between $0.37^{+0.48}_{-0.21}$ (errors reflect 68% credible intervals) and $0.60^{+0.90}_{-0.36}$ planets per star, while the optimistic HZ occurrence is between $0.58^{+0.73}_{-0.33}$ and $0.88^{+1.28}_{-0.51}$ planets per star. These bounds reflect two extreme assumptions about the extrapolation of completeness beyond orbital periods where DR25 completeness data are available. The large uncertainties are due to the small number of detected small HZ planets. We find similar occurrence rates using both a Poisson likelihood Bayesian analysis and Approximate Bayesian Computation. Our results are corrected for catalog completeness and reliability. Both completeness and the planet occurrence rate are dependent on stellar effective temperature. We also present occurrence rates for various stellar populations and planet size ranges. We estimate with $95%$ confidence that, on average, the nearest HZ planet around G and K dwarfs is about 6 pc away, and there are about 4 HZ rocky planets around G and K dwarfs within 10 pc of the Sun.
Kepler-62f is the first exoplanet small enough to plausibly have a rocky composition orbiting within the habitable zone (HZ) discovered by the Kepler Mission. The planet is 1.4 times the size of the Earth and has an orbital period of 267 days. At the time of its discovery, it had the longest period of any small planet in the habitable zone of a multi-planet system. Because of its long period, only four transits were observed during Keplers interval of observations. It was initially missed by the Kepler pipeline, but the first three transits were identified by an independent search by Eric Agol, and it was identified as a planet candidate in subsequent Kepler catalogs. However in the latest catalog of exoplanets (Thompson et al., 2018), it is labeled as a false positive. Recent exoplanet catalogues have evolved from subjective classification to automatic classifications of planet candidates by algorithms (such as `Robovetter). While exceptionally useful for producing a uniform catalogue, these algorithms sometimes misclassify planet candidates as a false positive, as is the case of Kepler-62f. In particularly valuable cases, i.e., when a small planet has been found orbiting in the habitable zone (HZ), it is important to conduct comprehensive analyses of the data and classification protocols to provide the best estimate of the true status of the detection. In this paper we conduct such analyses and show that Kepler-62f is a true planet and not a false positive. The table of stellar and planet properties has been updated based on GAIA results.
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