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Register a new userStatistical Evidence for Contributions of Flares and Coronal Mass Ejections to Major Solar Energetic Particle Events
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Solar energetic particle (SEP) events are related to flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). This work is a new investigation of statistical relationships between SEP peak intensities - deka-MeV protons and near-relativistic electrons - and characteristic quantities of the associated solar activity. We consider the speed of the CME and quantities describing the flare-related energy release: peak flux and fluence of soft X-ray (SXR) emission, fluence of microwave emission. The sample comprises 38 SEP events associated with strong SXR bursts (classes M and X) in the western solar hemisphere between 1997 and 2006, and where the flare-related particle acceleration is accompanied by radio bursts indicating electron escape to the interplanetary space. The main distinction of the present statistical analysis from earlier work is that besides the classical Pearson correlation coefficient the partial correlation coefficients are calculated in order to disentangle the effects of correlations between the solar parameters themselves. The classical correlation analysis shows the usual picture of correlations with broad scatter between SEP peak intensities and the different parameters of solar activity, and strong correlations between the solar activity parameters themselves. The partial correlation analysis shows that the only parameters that affect significantly the SEP intensity are the CME speed and the SXR fluence. The SXR peak flux and the microwave fluence have no additional contribution. We conclude that these findings bring statistical evidence that both flare acceleration and CME shock acceleration contribute to the deka-MeV proton and near-relativistic electron populations in large SEP events.
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The scenario of twin coronal mass ejections (CMEs), i.e., a fast and wide primary CME (priCME) preceded by previous CMEs (preCMEs), has been found to be favorable to a more efficient particle acceleration in large solar energetic particle (SEP) events. Here, we study 19 events during 2007--2014 associated with twin-CME eruptions but without large SEP observations at L1 point. We combine remote-sensing and in situ observations from multiple spacecraft to investigate the role of magnetic connectivity in SEP detection and the CME information in 3-dimensional (3D) space. We study one-on-one correlations of the priCME 3D speed, flare intensity, suprathermal backgrounds, and height of CME-CME interaction with the SEP intensity. Among these, the priCME speed is found to correlate with the SEP peak intensity at the highest level. We use the projection correlation method to analyze the correlations between combinations of these multiple independent factors and the SEP peak intensity. We find that the only combination of two or more parameters that has higher correlation with the SEP peak intensity than the CME speed is the CME speed combined with the propagation direction. This further supports the dominant role of the priCME in controlling the SEP enhancements, and emphasizes the consideration of the latitudinal effect. Overall, the magnetic connectivity in longitude as well as latitude and the relatively lower priCME speed may explain the existence of the twin-CME SEP-poor events. The role of the barrier effect of preCME(s) is discussed for an event on 2013 October 28.
In order to discuss the potential impact of solar superflares on space weather, we investigated statistical relations among energetic proton peak flux with energy higher than $ 10 rm MeV$ ($F_p$), CME speed near the Sun ($V_{CME}$) obtained by {it SOHO}/LASCO coronagraph and flare soft X-ray peak flux in 1-8AA band ($F_{SXR}$) during 110 major solar proton events (SPEs) recorded from 1996 to 2014. The linear regression fit results in the scaling relations $V_{CME} propto F_{SXR}^alpha$, $F_ppropto F_{SXR}^beta$ and $F_ppropto V_{CME}^gamma$ with $alpha = 0.30pm 0.04$, $beta = 1.19 pm 0.08$ and $gamma = 4.35 pm 0.50$, respectively. On the basis of simple physical assumptions, on the other hand, we derive scaling relations expressing CME mass ($M_{CME}$), CME speed and energetic proton flux in terms of total flare energy ($E_{flare}$) as, $M_{CME}propto E_{flare}^{2/3}$, $V_{CME}propto E_{flare}^{1/6}$ and $F_{p}propto E_{flare}^{5/6}propto V_{CME}^5$, respectively. We then combine the derived scaling relations with observation, and estimated the upper limit of $V_{CME}$ and $F_p$ to be associated with possible solar superflares.
Statistical dependencies among features of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), solar flares, and sigmoidal structures in soft-X-ray images were investigated. We applied analysis methods to all the features in the same way in order to investigate the reproducibility of the correlations among them, which may be found from the combination of previous statistical studies. The samples of 211 M-class and X-class flares, which were observed between 2006 and 2015 by Hinode/X-ray telescope, Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph, and GOES, were examined statistically. Five kinds of analysis were performed: Occurrence rate analysis, linear-correlation analysis, association analysis, the Kolmogorov--Smirnov test, and Anderson-Darling test. The analyses show three main results. First, the sigmoidal structure and long duration events (LDEs) has stronger dependency on the CME occurrence than large X-ray class events in on-disk events. Second, for the limb events, the significant dependency exists between LDEs and CME occurrence, and between X-ray class and CME occurrence. Third, there existed 32.4% of on-disk flare events, which had sigmoidal structure and were not accompanied by CMEs. However, the occurrence probability of CMEs without sigmoidal structures is very small, 8.8 %, in on-disk events. While the first and second results are consistent with previous studies, we newly provided the difference between the on-disk events and limb events. The third result that non-sigmoidal regions produce less eruptive events is also different from previous results. We suggest that sigmoidal structures in soft X-ray images will be a helpful feature for CME prediction regarding on-disk flare events.
In this study we synthesize the results of four previous studies on the global energetics of solar flares and associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs), which include magnetic, thermal, nonthermal, and CME energies in 399 solar M and X-class flare events observed during the first 3.5 years of the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) mission. Our findings are: (1) The sum of the mean nonthermal energy of flare-accelerated particles ($E_{mathrm{nt}}$), the energy of direct heating ($E_{mathrm{dir}}$), and the energy in coronal mass ejections ($E_{mathrm{CME}}$), which are the primary energy dissipation processes in a flare, is found to have a ratio of $(E_{mathrm{nt}}+E_{mathrm{dir}}+ E_{mathrm{CME}})/E_{mathrm{mag}} = 0.87 pm 0.18$, compared with the dissipated magnetic free energy $E_{mathrm{mag}}$, which confirms energy closure within the measurement uncertainties and corroborates the magnetic origin of flares and CMEs; (2) The energy partition of the dissipated magnetic free energy is: $0.51pm0.17$ in nonthermal energy of $ge 6$ keV electrons, $0.17pm0.17$ in nonthermal $ge 1$ MeV ions, $0.07pm0.14$ in CMEs, and $0.07pm0.17$ in direct heating; (3) The thermal energy is almost always less than the nonthermal energy, which is consistent with the thick-target model; (4) The bolometric luminosity in white-light flares is comparable with the thermal energy in soft X-rays (SXR); (5) Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events carry a fraction $approx 0.03$ of the CME energy, which is consistent with CME-driven shock acceleration; and (6) The warm-target model predicts a lower limit of the low-energy cutoff at $e_c approx 6$ keV, based on the mean differential emission measure (DEM) peak temperature of $T_e=8.6$ MK during flares. This work represents the first statistical study that establishes energy closure in solar flare/CME events.
We compare estimates of the speed and width of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in several catalogs for the CMEs associated with ~200 solar energetic particle (SEP) events in 2006-2013 that included 25 MeV protons. The catalogs used are: CDAW, CACTUS, SEEDS and CORIMP, all derived from observations by the LASCO coronagraphs on the SOHO spacecraft, the CACTUS catalog derived from the COR2 coronagraphs on the STEREO-A and -B spacecraft, and the DONKI catalog, which uses observations from SOHO and the STEREO spacecraft. We illustrate how, for this set of events, CME parameters can differ considerably in each catalog. The well-known correlation between CME speed and proton event intensity is shown to be similar for most catalogs, but this is largely because it is determined by a few large particle events associated with fast CMEs, and small events associated with slow CMEs. Intermediate particle events shuffle in position when speeds from different catalogs are used. Quadrature spacecraft CME speeds do not improve the correlation. CME widths also vary widely between catalogs, and are influenced by plane of the sky projection and how the width is inferred from the coronagraph images. The high degree of association (~50%) between the 25 MeV proton events and full halo (360 deg.-width) CMEs as defined in the CDAW catalog is removed when other catalogs are considered. Using CME parameters from the quadrature spacecraft, the SEP intensity is correlated with CME width, which is also correlated with CME speed.
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