Subscribe to the gold package and get unlimited access to Shamra Academy
Register a new userWhen is a crowd wise?
110
0
0.0
(
0
)
Ask ChatGPT about the research
No Arabic abstract
Numerous studies and anecdotes demonstrate the wisdom of the crowd, the surprising accuracy of a groups aggregated judgments. Less is known, however, about the generality of crowd wisdom. For example, are crowds wise even if their members have systematic judgmental biases, or can influence each other before members render their judgments? If so, are there situations in which we can expect a crowd to be less accurate than skilled individuals? We provide a precise but general definition of crowd wisdom: A crowd is wise if a linear aggregate, for example a mean, of its members judgments is closer to the target value than a randomly, but not necessarily uniformly, sampled member of the crowd. Building on this definition, we develop a theoretical framework for examining, a priori, when and to what degree a crowd will be wise. We systematically investigate the boundary conditions for crowd wisdom within this framework and determine conditions under which the accuracy advantage for crowds is maximized. Our results demonstrate that crowd wisdom is highly robust: Even if judgments are biased and correlated, one would need to nearly deterministically select only a highly skilled judge before an individuals judgment could be expected to be more accurate than a simple averaging of the crowd. Our results also provide an accuracy rationale behind the need for diversity of judgments among group members. Contrary to folk explanations of crowd wisdom which hold that judgments should ideally be independent so that errors cancel out, we find that crowd wisdom is maximized when judgments systematically differ as much as possible. We re-analyze data from two published studies that confirm our theoretical results.
rate research
Read More
We discuss the problem of extending data mining approaches to cases in which data points arise in the form of individual graphs. Being able to find the intrinsic low-dimensionality in ensembles of graphs can be useful in a variety of modeling contexts, especially when coarse-graining the detailed graph information is of interest. One of the main challenges in mining graph data is the definition of a suitable pairwise similarity metric in the space of graphs. We explore two practical solutions to solving this problem: one based on finding subgraph densities, and one using spectral information. The approach is illustrated on three test data sets (ensembles of graphs); two of these are obtained from standard graph generating algorithms, while the graphs in the third example are sampled as dynamic snapshots from an evolving network simulation. We further incorporate these approaches with equation free techniques, demonstrating how such data mining approaches can enhance scientific computation of network evolution dynamics.
People differ in how they attend to, interpret, and respond to their surroundings. Convergent processing of the world may be one factor that contributes to social connections between individuals. We used neuroimaging and network analysis to investigate whether the most central individuals in their communities (as measured by in-degree centrality, a notion of popularity) process the world in a particularly normative way. More central individuals had exceptionally similar neural responses to their peers and especially to each other in brain regions associated with high-level interpretations and social cognition (e.g., in the default-mode network), whereas less-central individuals exhibited more idiosyncratic responses. Self-reported enjoyment of and interest in stimuli followed a similar pattern, but accounting for these data did not change our main results. These findings suggest an Anna Karenina principle in social networks: Highly-central individuals process the world in exceptionally similar ways, whereas less-central individuals process the world in idiosyncratic ways.
We propose an entropic geometrical model of psycho-physical crowd dynamics (with dissipative crowd kinematics), using Feynman action-amplitude formalism that operates on three synergetic levels: macro, meso and micro. The intent is to explain the dynamics of crowds simultaneously and consistently across these three levels, in order to characterize their geometrical properties particularly with respect to behavior regimes and the state changes between them. Its most natural statistical descriptor is crowd entropy $S$ that satisfies the Prigogines extended second law of thermodynamics, $partial_tSgeq 0$ (for any nonisolated multi-component system). Qualitative similarities and superpositions between individual and crowd configuration manifolds motivate our claim that goal-directed crowd movement operates under entropy conservation, $partial_tS = 0$, while natural crowd dynamics operates under (monotonically) increasing entropy function, $partial_tS > 0$. Between these two distinct topological phases lies a phase transition with a chaotic inter-phase. Both inertial crowd dynamics and its dissipative kinematics represent diffusion processes on the crowd manifold governed by the Ricci flow, with the associated Perelman entropy-action. Keywords: Crowd psycho-physical dynamics, action-amplitude formalism, crowd manifold, Ricci flow, Perelman entropy, topological phase transition
It is commonly-accepted wisdom that more information is better, and that information should never be ignored. Here we argue, using both a Bayesian and a non-Bayesian analysis, that in some situations you are better off ignoring information if your uncertainty is represented by a set of probability measures. These include situations in which the information is relevant for the prediction task at hand. In the non-Bayesian analysis, we show how ignoring information avoids dilation, the phenomenon that additional pieces of information sometimes lead to an increase in uncertainty. In the Bayesian analysis, we show that for small sample sizes and certain prediction tasks, the Bayesian posterior based on a noninformative prior yields worse predictions than simply ignoring the given information.
Crowd algorithms often assume workers are inexperienced and thus fail to adapt as workers in the crowd learn a task. These assumptions fundamentally limit the types of tasks that systems based on such algorithms can handle. This paper explores how the crowd learns and remembers over time in the context of human computation, and how more realistic assumptions of worker experience may be used when designing new systems. We first demonstrate that the crowd can recall information over time and discuss possible implications of crowd memory in the design of crowd algorithms. We then explore crowd learning during a continuous control task. Recent systems are able to disguise dynamic groups of workers as crowd agents to support continuous tasks, but have not yet considered how such agents are able to learn over time. We show, using a real-time gaming setting, that crowd agents can learn over time, and `remember by passing strategies from one generation of workers to the next, despite high turnover rates in the workers comprising them. We conclude with a discussion of future research directions for crowd memory and learning.
Log in to be able to interact and post comments
comments
Fetching comments
Sign in to be able to follow your search criteria
