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Register a new userBayesian search for low-mass planets around nearby M dwarfs. Estimates for occurrence rate based on global detectability statistics
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Due to their higher planet-star mass-ratios, M dwarfs are the easiest targets for detection of low-mass planets orbiting nearby stars using Doppler spectroscopy. Furthermore, because of their low masses and luminosities, Doppler measurements enable the detection of low-mass planets in their habitable zones that correspond to closer orbits than for Solar-type stars. We re-analyse literature UVES radial velocities of 41 nearby M dwarfs in a combination with new velocities obtained from publicly available spectra from the HARPS-ESO spectrograph of these stars in an attempt to constrain any low-amplitude Keplerian signals. We apply Bayesian signal detection criteria, together with posterior sampling techniques, in combination with noise models that take into account correlations in the data and obtain estimates for the number of planet candidates in the sample. More generally, we use the estimated detection probability function to calculate the occurrence rate of low-mass planets around nearby M dwarfs. We report eight new planet candidates in the sample (orbiting GJ 27.1, GJ 160.2, GJ 180, GJ 229, GJ 422, and GJ 682), including two new multiplanet systems, and confirm two previously known candidates in the GJ 433 system based on detections of Keplerian signals in the combined UVES and HARPS radial velocity data that cannot be explained by periodic and/or quasiperiodic phenomena related to stellar activities. Finally, we use the estimated detection probability function to calculate the occurrence rate of low-mass planets around nearby M dwarfs. According to our results, M dwarfs are hosts to an abundance of low-mass planets and the occurrence rate of planets less massive than 10 M$_{oplus}$ is of the order of one planet per star, possibly even greater. ...
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Earth-sized planets in the habitable zones of M dwarfs are good candidates for the study of habitability and detection of biosignatures. To search for these planets, we analyze all available radial velocity data and apply four signal detection criteria to select the optimal candidates. We find ten strong candidates satisfying these criteria and three weak candidates showing inconsistency over time due to data samplings. We also confirm three previous planet candidates and improve their orbital solutions through combined analyses of updated data sets. Among the strong planet candidates, HIP 38594 b is a temperate super-Earth with a mass of $8.2 pm 1.7$ $M_oplus$ and an orbital period of $60.7pm0.1$ days, orbiting around an early-type M dwarf. Early-type M dwarfs are less active and thus are better hosts for habitable planets than mid-type and late-type M dwarfs. Moreover, we report the detection of five two-planet systems, including two systems made up of a warm or cold Neptune and a cold Jupiter, consistent with a positive correlation between these two types of planets. We also detect three temperate Neptunes, four cold Neptunes, and four cold Jupiters, contributing to a rarely explored planet population. Due to their proximity to the Sun, these planets on wide orbits are appropriate targets for direct imaging by future facilities such as HabEx and ELT.
We report the detection of two exoplanets and a further tentative candidate around the M-dwarf stars Gl96 and Gl617A, based on radial velocity measurements obtained with the SOPHIE spectrograph at the Observatoire de Haute-Provence. Both stars were observed in the context of the SOPHIE exoplanet consortiums dedicated M-dwarf subprogramme, which aims to detect exoplanets around nearby M-dwarf stars through a systematic survey. For Gl96, we present the discovery of a new exoplanet at 73.9 d with a minimum mass of 19.66 earth masses. Gl96 b has an eccentricity of 0.44, placing it among the most eccentric planets orbiting M stars. For Gl617A we independently confirm a recently reported exoplanet at 86.7 d with a minimum mass of 31.29 earth masses. Both Gl96 b and Gl617A b are potentially within the habitable zone, though Gl96 bs high eccentricity may take it too close to the star at periapsis.
[abridged] We carry out numerical simulations to gauge the Gaia potential for precision astrometry of exoplanets orbiting a sample of known dM stars within 30 pc from the Sun. (1) It will be possible to accurately determine orbits and masses for Jupiter-mass planets with orbital periods in the range 0.2<P<6.0 yr and with an astrometric signal-to-noise ratio > 10. Given present-day estimates of the planet fraction f_p around M dwarfs, 100 giant planets could be found by Gaia around the sample. Comprehensive screening by Gaia of the reservoir of 4x10^5 M dwarfs within 100 pc could result in 2600 detections and as many as 500 accurate orbit determinations. The value of f_p could then be determined with an accuracy of 2%, an improvement by over an order of magnitude with respect to the most precise values available to-date; (2) in the same period range, inclination angles corresponding to quasi-edge-on configurations will be determined with enough precision (a few percent) so that it will be possible to identify intermediate-separation planets which are potentially transiting within the errors. Gaia could alert us of the existence of 10 such systems. More than 250 candidates could be identified assuming solutions compatible with transit configurations within 10% accuracy, although a large fraction of these (85%) could be false positives; (3) for well-sampled orbits, the uncertainties on planetary ephemerides, separation and position angle, will degrade at typical rates of < 1 mas/yr and < 2 deg/yr, respectively; (4) planetary phases will be measured with typical uncertainties of several degrees, resulting (under the assumption of purely scattering atmospheres) in phase-averaged errors on the phase function of 0.05, and expected uncertainties in the determination of the emergent flux of intermediate-separation (0.3<a<2.0 AU) giant planets of 20%. [abridged]
We present the discovery and characterisation of two transiting planets observed by the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) orbiting the nearby (d ~ 22 pc), bright (J ~ 9 mag) M3.5 dwarf LTT 3780 (TOI-732). We confirm both planets and their association with LTT 3780 via ground-based photometry and determine their masses using precise radial velocities measured with the CARMENES spectrograph. Precise stellar parameters determined from CARMENES high resolution spectra confirm that LTT 3780 is a mid-M dwarf with an effective temperature of T_eff = 3360 +- 51 K, a surface gravity of log(g) = 4.81 +/- 0.04 (cgs), and an iron abundance of [Fe/H] = 0.09 +/- 0.16 dex, with an inferred mass of M_star = 0.379 +/- 0.016 M_sun and a radius of R_star = 0.382 +/- 0.012 R_sun. The ultra-short-period planet LTT 3780 b (P_b = 0.77 d) with a radius of 1.35^{+0.06}_{-0.06} R_earth, a mass of 2.34^{+0.24}_{-0.23} M_earth, and a bulk density of 5.24^{+0.94}_{-0.81} g cm^{-3} joins the population of Earth-size planets with rocky, terrestrial composition. The outer planet, LTT 3780 c, with an orbital period of 12.25 d, radius of 2.42^{+0.10}_{-0.10} R_earth, mass of 6.29^{+0.63}_{-0.61} M_earth, and mean density of 2.45^{+0.44}_{-0.37} g cm^{-3} belongs to the population of dense sub-Neptunes. With the two planets located on opposite sides of the radius gap, this planetary system is an excellent target for testing planetary formation, evolution and atmospheric models. In particular, LTT 3780 c is an ideal object for atmospheric studies with the James Webb Space Telescope.
We use the optical and near-infrared photometry from the Kepler Input Catalog to provide improved estimates of the stellar characteristics of the smallest stars in the Kepler target list. We find 3897 dwarfs with temperatures below 4000K, including 64 planet candidate host stars orbited by 95 transiting planet candidates. We refit the transit events in the Kepler light curves for these planet candidates and combine the revised planet/star radius ratios with our improved stellar radii to revise the radii of the planet candidates orbiting the cool target stars. We then compare the number of observed planet candidates to the number of stars around which such planets could have been detected in order to estimate the planet occurrence rate around cool stars. We find that the occurrence rate of 0.5-4 Earth radius planets with orbital periods shorter than 50 days is 0.90 (+0.04/-0.03) planets per star. The occurrence rate of Earth-size (0.5-1.4 Earth radius) planets is constant across the temperature range of our sample at 0.51 (+0.06/-0.05) Earth-size planets per star, but the occurrence of 1.4-4 Earth radius planets decreases significantly at cooler temperatures. Our sample includes 2 Earth-size planet candidates in the habitable zone, allowing us to estimate that the mean number of Earth-size planets in the habitable zone is 0.15 (+0.13/-0.06) planets per cool star. Our 95% confidence lower limit on the occurrence rate of Earth-size planets in the habitable zones of cool stars is 0.04 planets per star. With 95% confidence, the nearest transiting Earth-size planet in the habitable zone of a cool star is within 21 pc. Moreover, the nearest non-transiting planet in the habitable zone is within 5 pc with 95% confidence.
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