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Register a new userThe chaotic solar cycle II. Analysis of cosmogenic 10Be data
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Context. The variations of solar activity over long time intervals using a solar activity reconstruction based on the cosmogenic radionuclide 10Be measured in polar ice cores are studied. Methods. By applying methods of nonlinear dynamics, the solar activity cycle is studied using solar activity proxies that have been reaching into the past for over 9300 years. The complexity of the system is expressed by several parameters of nonlinear dynamics, such as embedding dimension or false nearest neighbors, and the method of delay coordinates is applied to the time series. We also fit a damped random walk model, which accurately describes the variability of quasars, to the solar 10Be data and investigate the corresponding power spectral distribution. The periods in the data series were searched by the Fourier and wavelet analyses. The solar activity on the long-term scale is found to be on the edge of chaotic behavior. This can explain the observed intermittent period of longer lasting solar activity minima. Filtering the data by eliminating variations below a certain period (the periods of 380 yr and 57 yr were used) yields a far more regular behavior of solar activity. A comparison between the results for the 10Be data with the 14C data shows many similarities. Both cosmogenic isotopes are strongly correlated mutually and with solar activity. Finally, we find that a series of damped random walk models provides a good fit to the 10Be data with a fixed characteristic time scale of 1000 years, which is roughly consistent with the quasi-periods found by the Fourier and wavelet analyses.
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The Suns variability is controlled by the progression and interaction of the magnetized systems that form the 22-year magnetic activity cycle (the Hale Cycle) as they march from their origin at $sim$55 degrees latitude to the equator, over $sim$19 years. We will discuss the end point of that progression, dubbed terminator events, and our means of diagnosing them. Based on the terminations of Hale Magnetic Cycles, we construct a new solar activity clock which maps all solar magnetic activity onto a single normalized epoch. The Terminators appear at phase $0 * 2pi$ on this clock (by definition), then solar polar field reversals commence at $0.2 * 2pi$, and the geomagnetically quiet intervals centered around solar minimum, start at $0.6 * 2pi$ and end at the terminator, lasting 40% of the normalized cycle length. With this onset of quiescence, dubbed a pre-terminator, the Sun shows a radical reduction in active region complexity and (like the terminator events) is associated with the time when the solar radio flux crosses F10.7=90 sfu -- effectively marking the commencement of solar minimum conditions. In this paper we use the terminator-based clock to illustrate a range of phenomena associated with the pre-terminator event that further emphasize the strong interaction of the global-scale magnetic systems of the Hale Cycle.
Solar activity affects the whole heliosphere and near-Earth space environment. It has been reported in the literature that the mechanism responsible for the solar activity modulation behaves like a low-dimensional chaotic system. Studying these kind of physical systems and, in particular, their temporal evolution requires non-linear analysis methods. To this regard, in this work we apply the recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) to the study of two of the most commonly used solar cycle indicators; i.e. the series of the sunspots number (SSN), and the radio flux 10.7 cm, with the aim of identifying possible dynamical transitions in the system. A task which is particularly suited to the RQA. The outcome of this analysis reveals the presence of large fluctuations of two RQA measures; namely the determinism and the laminarity. In addition, large differences are also seen between the evolution of the RQA measures of the SSN and the radio flux. That suggests the presence of transitions in the dynamics underlying the solar activity. Besides it also shows and quantifies the different nature of these two solar indices. Furthermore, in order to check whether our results are affected by data artifacts, we have also applied the RQA to both the recently recalibrated SSN series and the previous one, unveiling the main differences between the two data sets. The results are discussed in light of the recent literature on the subject.
We are going back to the roots of the original solar neutrino problem: analysis of data from solar neutrino experiments. The application of standard deviation analysis (SDA) and diffusion entropy analysis (DEA) to the SuperKamiokande I and II data reveals that they represent a non-Gaussian signal. The Hurst exponent is different from the scaling exponent of the probability density function and both Hurst exponent and scaling exponent of the probability density function of the SuperKamiokande data deviate considerably from the value of 0.5 which indicates that the statistics of the underlying phenomenon is anomalous. To develop a road to the possible interpretation of this finding we utilize Mathais pathway model and consider fractional reaction and fractional diffusion as possible explanations of the non-Gaussian content of the SuperKamiokande data.
An algebraic method for the reconstruction and potentially prediction of the solar dipole moment value at sunspot minimum (known to be a good predictor of the amplitude of the next solar cycle) was suggested in the first paper in this series. The method sums up the ultimate dipole moment contributions of individual active regions in a solar cycle: for this, detailed and reliable input data would in principle be needed for thousands of active regions in a solar cycle. To reduce the need for detailed input data, here we propose a new active region descriptor called ARDoR (Active Region Degree of Rogueness). In a detailed statistical analysis of a large number of activity cycles simulated with the 2$times$2D dynamo model we demonstrate that ranking active regions by decreasing ARDoR, for a good reproduction of the solar dipole moment at the end of the cycle it is sufficient to consider the top $N$ regions on this list explicitly, where $N$ is a relatively low number, while for the other regions the ARDoR value may be set to zero. E.g., with $N=5$ the fraction of cycles where the dipole moment is reproduced with an error exceeding $pm$30% is only 12%, significantly reduced with respect to the case $N=0$, i.e. ARDoR set to zero for all active regions, where this fraction is 26%. This indicates that stochastic effects on the intercycle variations of solar activity are dominated by the effect of a low number of large ``rogue active regions, rather than the combined effect of numerous small ARs. The method has a potential for future use in solar cycle prediction.
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