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Register a new userThe Z-index: A geometric representation of productivity and impact which accounts for information in the entire rank-citation profile
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We present a simple generalization of Hirschs h-index, Z = sqrt{h^{2}+C}/sqrt{5}, where C is the total number of citations. Z is aimed at correcting the potentially excessive penalty made by h on a scientists highly cited papers, because for the majority of scientists analyzed, we find the excess citation fraction (C-h^{2})/C to be distributed closely around the value 0.75, meaning that 75 percent of the authors impact is neglected. Additionally, Z is less sensitive to local changes in a scientists citation profile, namely perturbations which increase h while only marginally affecting C. Using real career data for 476 physicists careers and 488 biologist careers, we analyze both the distribution of $Z$ and the rank stability of Z with respect to the Hirsch index h and the Egghe index g. We analyze careers distributed across a wide range of total impact, including top-cited physicists and biologists for benchmark comparison. In practice, the Z-index requires the same information needed to calculate h and could be effortlessly incorporated within career profile databases, such as Google Scholar and ResearcherID. Because Z incorporates information from the entire publication profile while being more robust than h and g to local perturbations, we argue that Z is better suited for ranking comparisons in academic decision-making scenarios comprising a large number of scientists.
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We stress-test the career predictability model proposed by Acuna et al. [Nature 489, 201-202 2012] by applying their model to a longitudinal career data set of 100 Assistant professors in physics, two from each of the top 50 physics departments in the US. The Acuna model claims to predict h(t+Delta t), a scientists h-index Delta t years into the future, using a linear combination of 5 cumulative career measures taken at career age t. Here we investigate how the predictability depends on the aggregation of career data across multiple age cohorts. We confirm that the Acuna model does a respectable job of predicting h(t+Delta t) up to roughly 6 years into the future when aggregating all age cohorts together. However, when calculated using subsets of specific age cohorts (e.g. using data for only t=3), we find that the models predictive power significantly decreases, especially when applied to early career years. For young careers, the model does a much worse job of predicting future impact, and hence, exposes a serious limitation. The limitation is particularly concerning as early career decisions make up a significant portion, if not the majority, of cases where quantitative approaches are likely to be applied.
Reputation is an important social construct in science, which enables informed quality assessments of both publications and careers of scientists in the absence of complete systemic information. However, the relation between reputation and career growth of an individual remains poorly understood, despite recent proliferation of quantitative research evaluation methods. Here we develop an original framework for measuring how a publications citation rate $Delta c$ depends on the reputation of its central author $i$, in addition to its net citation count $c$. To estimate the strength of the reputation effect, we perform a longitudinal analysis on the careers of 450 highly-cited scientists, using the total citations $C_{i}$ of each scientist as his/her reputation measure. We find a citation crossover $c_{times}$ which distinguishes the strength of the reputation effect. For publications with $c < c_{times}$, the authors reputation is found to dominate the annual citation rate. Hence, a new publication may gain a significant early advantage corresponding to roughly a 66% increase in the citation rate for each tenfold increase in $C_{i}$. However, the reputation effect becomes negligible for highly cited publications meaning that for $cgeq c_{times}$ the citation rate measures scientific impact more transparently. In addition we have developed a stochastic reputation model, which is found to reproduce numerous statistical observations for real careers, thus providing insight into the microscopic mechanisms underlying cumulative advantage in science.
Universality or near-universality of citation distributions was found empirically a decade ago but its theoretical justification has been lacking so far. Here, we systematically study citation distributions for different disciplines in order to characterize this putative universality and to understand it theoretically. Using our calibrated model of citation dynamics, we find microscopic explanation of the universality of citation distributions and explain deviations therefrom. We demonstrate that citation count of the paper is determined, on the one hand, by its fitness -- the attribute which, for most papers, is set at the moment of publication. The fitness distributions for different disciplines are very similar and can be approximated by the log-normal distribution. On another hand, citation dynamics of a paper is related to the mechanism by which the knowledge about it spreads in the scientific community. This viral propagation is non-universal and discipline-specific. Thus, universality of citation distributions traces its origin to the fitness distribution, while deviations from universality are associated with the discipline-specific citation dynamics of papers.
Many of the essential features of the evolution of scientific research are imprinted in the structure of citation networks. Connections in these networks imply information about the transfer of knowledge among papers, or in other words, edges describe the impact of papers on other publications. This inherent meaning of the edges infers that citation networks can exhibit hierarchical features, that is typical of networks based on decision-making. In this paper, we investigate the hierarchical structure of citation networks consisting of papers in the same field. We find that the majority of the networks follow a universal trend towards a highly hierarchical state, and i) the various fields display differences only concerning their phase in life (distance from the birth of a field) or ii) the characteristic time according to which they are approaching the stationary state. We also show by a simple argument that the alterations in the behavior are related to and can be understood by the degree of specialization corresponding to the fields. Our results suggest that during the accumulation of knowledge in a given field, some papers are gradually becoming relatively more influential than most of the other papers.
Correctly assessing a scientists past research impact and potential for future impact is key in recruitment decisions and other evaluation processes. While a candidates future impact is the main concern for these decisions, most measures only quantify the impact of previous work. Recently, it has been argued that linear regression models are capable of predicting a scientists future impact. By applying that future impact model to 762 careers drawn from three disciplines: physics, biology, and mathematics, we identify a number of subtle, but critical, flaws in current models. Specifically, cumulative non-decreasing measures like the h-index contain intrinsic autocorrelation, resulting in significant overestimation of their predictive power. Moreover, the predictive power of these models depend heavily upon scientists career age, producing least accurate estimates for young researchers. Our results place in doubt the suitability of such models, and indicate further investigation is required before they can be used in recruiting decisions.
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