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Register a new userDemography-adjusted tests of neutrality based on genome-wide SNP data
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Marina Rafajlovic
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Tests of the neutral evolution hypothesis are usually built on the standard null model which assumes that mutations are neutral and population size remains constant over time. However, it is unclear how such tests are affected if the last assumption is dropped. Here, we extend the unifying framework for tests based on the site frequency spectrum, introduced by Achaz and Ferretti, to populations of varying size. A key ingredient is to specify the first two moments of the frequency spectrum. We show that these moments can be determined analytically if a population has experienced two instantaneous size changes in the past. We apply our method to data from ten human populations gathered in the 1000 genomes project, estimate their demographies and define demography-adjust
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The Roma people, living throughout Europe, are a diverse population linked by the Romani language and culture. Previous linguistic and genetic studies have suggested that the Roma migrated into Europe from South Asia about 1000-1500 years ago. Genetic inferences about Roma history have mostly focused on the Y chromosome and mitochondrial DNA. To explore what additional information can be learned from genome-wide data, we analyzed data from six Roma groups that we genotyped at hundreds of thousands of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). We estimate that the Roma harbor about 80% West Eurasian ancestry-deriving from a combination of European and South Asian sources- and that the date of admixture of South Asian and European ancestry was about 850 years ago. We provide evidence for Eastern Europe being a major source of European ancestry, and North-west India being a major source of the South Asian ancestry in the Roma. By computing allele sharing as a measure of linkage disequilibrium, we estimate that the migration of Roma out of the Indian subcontinent was accompanied by a severe founder event, which we hypothesize was followed by a major demographic expansion once the population arrived in Europe.
The role of positive selection in human evolution remains controversial. On the one hand, scans for positive selection have identified hundreds of candidate loci and the genome-wide patterns of polymorphism show signatures consistent with frequent positive selection. On the other hand, recent studies have argued that many of the candidate loci are false positives and that most apparent genome-wide signatures of adaptation are in fact due to reduction of neutral diversity by linked recurrent deleterious mutations, known as background selection. Here we analyze human polymorphism data from the 1,000 Genomes project (Abecasis et al. 2012) and detect signatures of pervasive positive selection once we correct for the effects of background selection. We show that levels of neutral polymorphism are lower near amino acid substitutions, with the strongest reduction observed specifically near functionally consequential amino acid substitutions. Furthermore, amino acid substitutions are associated with signatures of recent adaptation that should not be generated by background selection, such as the presence of unusually long and frequent haplotypes and specific distortions in the site frequency spectrum. We use forward simulations to show that the observed signatures require a high rate of strongly adaptive substitutions in the vicinity of the amino acid changes. We further demonstrate that the observed signatures of positive selection correlate more strongly with the presence of regulatory sequences, as predicted by ENCODE (Gerstein et al. 2012), than the positions of amino acid substitutions. Our results establish that adaptation was frequent in human evolution and provide support for the hypothesis of King and Wilson (King and Wilson 1975) that adaptive divergence is primarily driven by regulatory changes.
We scanned through the genomes of 29,141 African Americans, searching for loci where the average proportion of African ancestry deviates significantly from the genome-wide average. We failed to find any genome-wide significant deviations, and conclude that any selection in African Americans since admixture is sufficiently weak that it falls below the threshold of our power to detect it using a large sample size. These results stand in contrast to the findings of a recent study of selection in African Americans. That study, which had 15 times fewer samples, reported six loci with significant deviations. We show that the discrepancy is likely due to insufficient correction for multiple hypothesis testing in the previous study. The same study reported 14 loci that showed greater population differentiation between African Americans and Nigerian Yoruba than would be expected in the absence of natural selection. Four such loci were previously shown to be genome-wide significant and likely to be affected by selection, but we show that most of the 10 additional loci are likely to be false positives. Additionally, the most parsimonious explanation for the loci that have significant evidence of unusual differentiation in frequency between Nigerians and Africans Americans is selection in Africa prior to their forced migration to the Americas.
How natural selection acts to limit the proliferation of transposable elements (TEs) in genomes has been of interest to evolutionary biologists for many years. To describe TE dynamics in populations, many previous studies have used models of transposition-selection equilibrium that rely on the assumption of a constant rate of transposition. However, since TE invasions are known to happen in bursts through time, this assumption may not be reasonable in natural populations. Here we propose a test of neutrality for TE insertions that does not rely on the assumption of a constant transposition rate. We consider the case of TE insertions that have been ascertained from a single haploid reference genome sequence and have subsequently had their allele frequency estimated in a population sample. By conditioning on the age of an individual TE insertion (using information contained in the number of substitutions that have occurred within the TE sequence since insertion), we determine the probability distribution for the insertion allele frequency in a population sample under neutrality. Taking models of varying population size into account, we then evaluate predictions of our model against allele frequency data from 190 retrotransposon insertions sampled from North American and African populations of Drosophila melanogaster. Using this non-equilibrium model, we are able to explain about 80% of the variance in TE insertion allele frequencies based on age alone. Controlling both for nonequilibrium dynamics of transposition and host demography, we provide evidence for negative selection acting against most TEs as well as for positive selection acting on a small subset of TEs. Our work establishes a new framework for the analysis of the evolutionary forces governing large insertion mutations like TEs, gene duplications or other copy number variants.
In this paper, based on the Akaike information criterion, root mean square error and robustness coefficient, a rational evaluation of various epidemic models/methods, including seven empirical functions, four statistical inference methods and five dynamical models, on their forecasting abilities is carried out. With respect to the outbreak data of COVID-19 epidemics in China, we find that before the inflection point, all models fail to make a reliable prediction. The Logistic function consistently underestimates the final epidemic size, while the Gompertzs function makes an overestimation in all cases. Towards statistical inference methods, the methods of sequential Bayesian and time-dependent reproduction number are more accurate at the late stage of an epidemic. And the transition-like behavior of exponential growth method from underestimation to overestimation with respect to the inflection point might be useful for constructing a more reliable forecast. Compared to ODE-based SIR, SEIR and SEIR-AHQ models, the SEIR-QD and SEIR-PO models generally show a better performance on studying the COVID-19 epidemics, whose success we believe could be attributed to a proper trade-off between model complexity and fitting accuracy. Our findings not only are crucial for the forecast of COVID-19 epidemics, but also may apply to other infectious diseases.
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