No Arabic abstract
Our problem is to find a good approximation to the P-value of the maximum of a random field of test statistics for a cone alternative at each point in a sample of Gaussian random fields. These test statistics have been proposed in the neuroscience literature for the analysis of fMRI data allowing for unknown delay in the hemodynamic response. However the null distribution of the maximum of this 3D random field of test statistics, and hence the threshold used to detect brain activation, was unsolved. To find a solution, we approximate the P-value by the expected Euler characteristic (EC) of the excursion set of the test statistic random field. Our main result is the required EC density, derived using the Gaussian Kinematic Formula.
The infinite-dimensional Hilbert sphere $S^infty$ has been widely employed to model density functions and shapes, extending the finite-dimensional counterpart. We consider the Frechet mean as an intrinsic summary of the central tendency of data lying on $S^infty$. To break a path for sound statistical inference, we derive properties of the Frechet mean on $S^infty$ by establishing its existence and uniqueness as well as a root-$n$ central limit theorem (CLT) for the sample version, overcoming obstructions from infinite-dimensionality and lack of compactness on $S^infty$. Intrinsic CLTs for the estimated tangent vectors and covariance operator are also obtained. Asymptotic and bootstrap hypothesis tests for the Frechet mean based on projection and norm are then proposed and are shown to be consistent. The proposed two-sample tests are applied to make inference for daily taxi demand patterns over Manhattan modeled as densities, of which the square roots are analyzed on the Hilbert sphere. Numerical properties of the proposed hypothesis tests which utilize the spherical geometry are studied in the real data application and simulations, where we demonstrate that the tests based on the intrinsic geometry compare favorably to those based on an extrinsic or flat geometry.
We consider Bayesian inference of sparse covariance matrices and propose a post-processed posterior. This method consists of two steps. In the first step, posterior samples are obtained from the conjugate inverse-Wishart posterior without considering the sparse structural assumption. The posterior samples are transformed in the second step to satisfy the sparse structural assumption through the hard-thresholding function. This non-traditional Bayesian procedure is justified by showing that the post-processed posterior attains the optimal minimax rates. We also investigate the application of the post-processed posterior to the estimation of the global minimum variance portfolio. We show that the post-processed posterior for the global minimum variance portfolio also attains the optimal minimax rate under the sparse covariance assumption. The advantages of the post-processed posterior for the global minimum variance portfolio are demonstrated by a simulation study and a real data analysis with S&P 400 data.
We apply Gaussian process (GP) regression, which provides a powerful non-parametric probabilistic method of relating inputs to outputs, to survival data consisting of time-to-event and covariate measurements. In this context, the covariates are regarded as the `inputs and the event times are the `outputs. This allows for highly flexible inference of non-linear relationships between covariates and event times. Many existing methods, such as the ubiquitous Cox proportional hazards model, focus primarily on the hazard rate which is typically assumed to take some parametric or semi-parametric form. Our proposed model belongs to the class of accelerated failure time models where we focus on directly characterising the relationship between covariates and event times without any explicit assumptions on what form the hazard rates take. It is straightforward to include various types and combinations of censored and truncated observations. We apply our approach to both simulated and experimental data. We then apply multiple output GP regression, which can handle multiple potentially correlated outputs for each input, to competing risks survival data where multiple event types can occur. By tuning one of the model parameters we can control the extent to which the multiple outputs (the time-to-event for each risk) are dependent thus allowing the specification of correlated risks. Simulation studies suggest that in some cases assuming dependence can lead to more accurate predictions.
Gaussian processes (GP) are widely used as a metamodel for emulating time-consuming computer codes. We focus on problems involving categorical inputs, with a potentially large number L of levels (typically several tens), partitioned in G << L groups of various sizes. Parsimonious covariance functions, or kernels, can then be defined by block covariance matrices T with constant covariances between pairs of blocks and within blocks. We study the positive definiteness of such matrices to encourage their practical use. The hierarchical group/level structure, equivalent to a nested Bayesian linear model, provides a parameterization of valid block matrices T. The same model can then be used when the assumption within blocks is relaxed, giving a flexible parametric family of valid covariance matrices with constant covariances between pairs of blocks. The positive definiteness of T is equivalent to the positive definiteness of a smaller matrix of size G, obtained by averaging each block. The model is applied to a problem in nuclear waste analysis, where one of the categorical inputs is atomic number, which has more than 90 levels.
The cross-classified sampling design consists in drawing samples from a two-dimension population, independently in each dimension. Such design is commonly used in consumer price index surveys and has been recently applied to draw a sample of babies in the French ELFE survey, by crossing a sample of maternity units and a sample of days. We propose to derive a general theory of estimation for this sampling design. We consider the Horvitz-Thompson estimator for a total, and show that the cross-classified design will usually result in a loss of efficiency as compared to the widespread two-stage design. We obtain the asymptotic distribution of the Horvitz-Thompson estimator, and several unbiased variance estimators. Facing the problem of possibly negative values, we propose simplified non-negative variance estimators and study their bias under a super-population model. The proposed estimators are compared for totals and ratios on simulated data. An application on real data from the ELFE survey is also presented, and we make some recommendations. Supplementary materials are available online.