No Arabic abstract
Cosmological surveys aim to use the evolution of the abundance of galaxy clusters to accurately constrain the cosmological model. In the context of LCDM, we show that it is possible to achieve the required percent level accuracy in the halo mass function with gravity-only cosmological simulations, and we provide simulation start and run parameter guidelines for doing so. Some previous works have had sufficient statistical precision, but lacked robust verification of absolute accuracy. Convergence tests of the mass function with, for example, simulation start redshift can exhibit false convergence of the mass function due to counteracting errors, potentially misleading one to infer overly optimistic estimations of simulation accuracy. Percent level accuracy is possible if initial condition particle mapping uses second order Lagrangian Perturbation Theory, and if the start epoch is between 10 and 50 expansion factors before the epoch of halo formation of interest. The mass function for halos with fewer than ~1000 particles is highly sensitive to simulation parameters and start redshift, implying a practical minimum mass resolution limit due to mass discreteness. The narrow range in converged start redshift suggests that it is not presently possible for a single simulation to capture accurately the cluster mass function while also starting early enough to model accurately the numbers of reionisation era galaxies, whose baryon feedback processes may affect later cluster properties. Ultimately, to fully exploit current and future cosmological surveys will require accurate modeling of baryon physics and observable properties, a formidable challenge for which accurate gravity-only simulations are just an initial step.
This is the dawning of the age of precision cosmology, when all the important parameters will be established to one significant figure or better, within the cosmological model. In the age of accurate cosmology the model, which nowadays includes general relativity theory and the CDM model for structure formation, will be checked tightly enough to be established as a convincing approximation to reality. I comment on how we might make the transition. We already have some serious tests of gravity physics on the length and time scales of cosmology. The evidence for consistency with general relativity theory is still rough, but impressive, considering the enormous extrapolation from the empirical basis, and these probes of gravity physics will be considerably improved by work in progress on the cosmological tests. The CDM model has some impressive observational successes too, and some challenges, not least of which is that the model is based on a wonderfully optimistic view of the simplicity of physics in the dark sector. I present as a cautionary example a model for dark matter and dark energy that biases interpretations of cosmological observations that assume the CDM model. In short, cosmology has become an empirically rich subject with a well-motivated standard model, but it needs work to be established as generally accurate.
We study the impact of theoretical uncertainty in the dark matter halo mass function and halo bias on dark energy constraints from imminent galaxy cluster surveys. We find that for an optical cluster survey like the Dark Energy Survey, the accuracy required on the predicted halo mass function to make it an insignificant source of error on dark energy parameters is ~ 1%. The analogous requirement on the predicted halo bias is less stringent (~ 5%), particularly if the observable-mass distribution can be well constrained by other means. These requirements depend upon survey area but are relatively insensitive to survey depth. The most stringent requirements are likely to come from a survey over a significant fraction of the sky that aims to observe clusters down to relatively low mass, Mth ~ 10^13.7 Msun/h; for such a survey, the mass function and halo bias must be predicted to accuracies of ~ 0.5% and ~ 1%, respectively. These accuracies represent a limit on the practical need to calibrate ever more accurate halo mass and bias functions. We find that improving predictions for the mass function in the low-redshift and low-mass regimes is the most effective way to improve dark energy constraints.
Weak gravitational lensing, the deflection of light by mass, is one of the best tools to constrain the growth of cosmic structure with time and reveal the nature of dark energy. I discuss the sources of systematic uncertainty in weak lensing measurements and their theoretical interpretation, including our current understanding and other options for future improvement. These include long-standing concerns such as the estimation of coherent shears from galaxy images or redshift distributions of galaxies selected based on photometric redshifts, along with systematic uncertainties that have received less attention to date because they are subdominant contributors to the error budget in current surveys. I also discuss methods for automated systematics detection using survey data of the 2020s. The goal of this review is to describe the current state of the field and what must be done so that if weak lensing measurements lead toward surprising conclusions about key questions such as the nature of dark energy, those conclusions will be credible.
Matched filters are routinely used in cosmology in order to detect galaxy clusters from mm observations through their thermal Sunyaev-Zeldovich (tSZ) signature. In addition, they naturally provide an observable, the detection signal-to-noise or significance, which can be used as a mass proxy in number counts analyses of tSZ-selected cluster samples. In this work, we show that this observable is, in general, non-Gaussian, and that it suffers from a positive bias, which we refer to as optimisation bias. Both aspects arise from the fact that the signal-to-noise is constructed through an optimisation operation on noisy data, and hold even if the cluster signal is modelled perfectly well, no foregrounds are present, and the noise is Gaussian. After reviewing the general mathematical formalism underlying matched filters, we study the statistics of the signal-to-noise with a set Monte Carlo mock observations, finding it to be well-described by a unit-variance Gaussian for signal-to-noise values of 6 and above, and quantify the magnitude of the optimisation bias, for which we give an approximate expression that may be used in practice. We also consider the impact of the bias on the cluster number counts of Planck and the Simons Observatory (SO), finding it to be negligible for the former and potentially significant for the latter.
We compute the dark matter halo mass function using the excursion set formalism for a diffusive barrier with linearly drifting average which captures the main features of the ellipsoidal collapse model. We evaluate the non-Markovian corrections due to the sharp filtering of the linear density field in real space with a path-integral method. We find an unprecedented agreement with N-body simulation data with deviations within ~5% level over the range of masses probed by the simulations. This indicates that the Excursion Set in combination with a realistic modelling of the collapse threshold can provide a robust estimation of the halo mass function.