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Register a new userEstimating the frequency of extremely energetic solar events, based on solar, stellar, lunar, and terrestrial records
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The most powerful explosions on the Sun [...] drive the most severe space-weather storms. Proxy records of flare energies based on SEPs in principle may offer the longest time base to study infrequent large events. We conclude that one suggested proxy, nitrate concentrations in polar ice cores, does not map reliably to SEP events. Concentrations of select radionuclides measured in natural archives may prove useful in extending the time interval of direct observations up to ten millennia, but as their calibration to solar flare fluences depends on multiple poorly known properties and processes, these proxies cannot presently be used to help determine the flare energy frequency distribution. Being thus limited to the use of direct flare observations, we evaluate the probabilities of large-energy solar explosions by combining solar flare observations with an ensemble of stellar flare observations. We conclude that solar flare energies form a relatively smooth distribution from small events to large flares, while flares on magnetically-active, young Sun-like stars have energies and frequencies markedly in excess of strong solar flares, even after an empirical scaling with the mean activity level of these stars. In order to empirically quantify the frequency of uncommonly large solar flares extensive surveys of stars of near-solar age need to be obtained, such as is feasible with the Kepler satellite. Because the likelihood of flares larger than approximately X30 remains empirically unconstrained, we present indirect arguments, based on records of sunspots and on statistical arguments, that solar flares in the past four centuries have likely not substantially exceeded the level of the largest flares observed in the space era, and that there is at most about a 10% chance of a flare larger than about X30 in the next 30 years.
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On 2019 May 6, the Lunar Lander Neutron & Dosimetry (LND) Experiment on board the ChangE-4 on the far-side of the Moon detected its first small solar energetic particle (SEP) event with proton energies up to 21MeV. Combined proton energy spectra are studied based on the LND, SOHO/EPHIN and ACE/EPAM measurements which show that LND could provide a complementary dataset from a special location on the Moon, contributing to our existing observations and understanding of space environment. Velocity dispersion analysis (VDA) has been applied to the impulsive electron event and weak proton enhancement and the results demonstrate that electrons are released only 22 minutes after the flare onset and $sim$15 minutes after type II radio burst, while protons are released more than one hour after the electron release. The impulsive enhancement of the in-situ electrons and the derived early release time indicate a good magnetic connection between the source and Earth. However, stereoscopic remote-sensing observations from Earth and STA suggest that the SEPs are associated with an active region nearly 100$^circ$ away from the magnetic footpoint of Earth. This suggests that the propagation of these SEPs could not follow a nominal Parker spiral under the ballistic mapping model and the release and propagation mechanism of electrons and protons are likely to differ significantly during this event.
Using the SIT instrument aboard STEREO we have examined the abundance of the 3He during the ascending phase of solar cycle 24 from January 2010 through December 2012. We report on several cases when 3He-rich solar energetic particle events were successively observed on ACE and STEREO-A with delays consistent with the Carrington rotation rate. In the investigated period ACE and STEREO-A were significantly separated in the heliolongitude corresponding to solar rotation times of 5 to 10 days. We inspect STEREO-A EUV images and use the potential-field source-surface extrapolations together with in-situ magnetic field data to identify responsible solar sources. We find the 3He/4He ratio highly variable in these events and correlated between the spacecraft for the cases with the same connection region on the Sun.
The Rosse Solar-Terrestrial Observatory (RSTO; www.rosseobservatory.ie) was established at Birr Castle, Co. Offaly, Ireland (53 0538.9, 7 5512.7) in 2010 to study solar radio bursts and the response of the Earths ionosphere and geomagnetic field. To date, three Compound Astronomical Low-cost Low-frequency Instrument for Spectroscopy and Transportable Observatory (CALLISTO) spectrometers have been installed, with the capability of observing in the frequency range 10-870 MHz. The receivers are fed simultaneously by biconical and log-periodic antennas. Nominally, frequency spectra in the range 10-400 MHz are obtained with 4 sweeps per second over 600 channels. Here, we describe the RSTO solar radio spectrometer set-up, and present dynamic spectra of a sample of Type II, III and IV radio bursts. In particular, we describe fine-scale structure observed in Type II bursts, including band splitting and rapidly varying herringbone features.
Despite the significant progress achieved in recent years, the physical mechanisms underlying the origin of solar energetic particles (SEPs) are still a matter of debate. The complex nature of both particle acceleration and transport poses challenges to developing a universal picture of SEP events that encompasses both the low-energy (from tens of keV to a few hundreds of MeV) observations made by space-based instruments and the GeV particles detected by the worldwide network of neutron monitors in ground-level enhancements (GLEs). The high-precision data collected by the Payload for Antimatter Matter Exploration and Light-nuclei Astrophysics (PAMELA) satellite experiment offer a unique opportunity to study the SEP fluxes between $sim$80 MeV and a few GeV, significantly improving the characterization of the most energetic events. In particular, PAMELA can measure for the first time with good accuracy the spectral features at moderate and high energies, providing important constraints for current SEP models. In addition, the PAMELA observations allow the relationship between low and high-energy particles to be investigated, enabling a clearer view of the SEP origin. No qualitative distinction between the spectral shapes of GLE, sub-GLE and non-GLE events is observed, suggesting that GLEs are not a separate class, but are the subset of a continuous distribution of SEP events that are more intense at high energies. While the spectral forms found are to be consistent with diffusive shock acceleration theory, which predicts spectral rollovers at high energies that are attributed to particles escaping the shock region during acceleration, further work is required to explore the relative influences of acceleration and transport processes on SEP spectra.
Impulsive solar energetic electrons are often observed in the interplanetary space near the Earth and have an attractive diagnostic potential for poorly understood solar flare acceleration processes. We investigate the transport of solar flare energetic electrons in the heliospheric plasma to understand the role of transport to the observed onset and spectral properties of the impulsive solar electron events. The propagation of energetic electrons in solar wind plasma is simulated from the acceleration region at the Sun to the Earth, taking into account self-consistent generation and absorption of electrostatic electron plasma (Langmuir) waves, effects of non-uniform plasma, collisions and Landau damping. The simulations suggest that the beam-driven plasma turbulence and the effects of solar wind density inhomogeneity play a crucial role and lead to the appearance of a) spectral break for a single power-law injected electron spectrum, with the spectrum flatter below the break, b) apparent early onset of low-energy electron injection, c) the apparent late maximum of low-energy electron injection. We show that the observed onsets, spectral flattening at low energies, and formation of a break energy at tens of keV is the direct manifestation of wave-particle interactions in non-uniform plasma of a single accelerated electron population with an initial power-law spectrum.
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