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Register a new userThe M31 Velocity Vector. III. Future Milky Way-M31-M33 Orbital Evolution, Merging, and Fate of the Sun
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Authors
Roeland P. van der Marel
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We study the future orbital evolution and merging of the MW-M31-M33 system, using a combination of collisionless N-body simulations and semi-analytic orbit integrations. Monte-Carlo simulations are used to explore the consequences of varying the initial phase-space and mass parameters within their observational uncertainties. The observed M31 transverse velocity implies that the MW and M31 will merge t = 5.86 (+1.61-0.72) Gyr from now, after a first pericenter at t = 3.87 (+0.42-0.32) Gyr. M31 may (probability p=41%) make a direct hit with the MW (defined here as a first-pericenter distance less than 25 kpc). Most likely, the MW and M31 will merge first, with M33 settling onto an orbit around them. Alternatively, M33 may make a direct hit with the MW first (p=9%), or M33 may get ejected from the Local Group (p=7%). The MW-M31 merger remnant will resemble an elliptical galaxy. The Sun will most likely (p=85%) end up at larger radius from the center of the MW-M31 merger remnant than its current distance from the MW center, possibly further than 50 kpc (p=10%). The Sun may (p=20%) at some time in the next 10 Gyr find itself moving through M33 (within 10 kpc), but while dynamically still bound to the MW-M31 merger remnant. The arrival and possible collision of M31 (and possibly M33) with the MW is the next major cosmic event affecting the environment of our Sun and solar system that can be predicted with some certainty. (Abridged)
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We determine the velocity vector of M31 with respect to the Milky Way and use this to constrain the mass of the Local Group, based on HST proper-motion measurements presented in Paper I. We construct N-body models for M31 to correct the measurements for the contributions from stellar motions internal to M31. We also estimate the center-of-mass motion independently, using the kinematics of satellite galaxies of M31 and the Local Group. All estimates are mutually consistent, and imply a weighted average M31 heliocentric transverse velocity of (v_W,v_N) = (-125.2+/-30.8, -73.8+/-28.4) km/s. We correct for the reflex motion of the Sun using the most recent insights into the solar motion within the Milky Way. This implies a radial velocity of M31 with respect to the Milky Way of V_rad = -109.3+/-4.4 km/s, and a tangential velocity V_tan = 17.0 km/s (<34.3 km/s at 1-sigma confidence). Hence, the velocity vector of M31 is statistically consistent with a radial (head-on collision) orbit towards the Milky Way. We revise prior estimates for the Local Group timing mass, including corrections for cosmic bias and scatter. Bayesian combination with other mass estimates yields M_LG = M_MW(vir) + M_M31(vir) = (3.17 +/- 0.57) x 10^12 solar masses. The velocity and mass results imply at 95% confidence that M33 is bound to M31, consistent with expectation from observed tidal deformations. (Abridged)
We use the Bullock & Johnston suite of simulations to study the density profiles of L*-type galaxy stellar haloes. Observations of the Milky Way and M31 stellar haloes show contrasting results: the Milky Way has a `broken profile, where the density falls off more rapidly beyond ~ 25 kpc, while M31 has a smooth profile out to 100 kpc with no obvious break. Simulated stellar haloes, built solely by the accretion of dwarf galaxies, also exhibit this behavior: some haloes have breaks, while others dont. The presence or absence of a break in the stellar halo profile can be related to the accretion history of the galaxy. We find that a break radius is strongly related to the build up of stars at apocentres. We relate these findings to observations, and find that the `break in the Milky Way density profile is likely associated with a relatively early (~ 6-9 Gyr ago) and massive accretion event. In contrast, the absence of a break in the M31 stellar halo profile suggests that its accreted satellites have a wide range of apocentres. Hence, it is likely that M31 has had a much more prolonged accretion history than the Milky Way.
We report the discovery of 11 newly found quasars behind the stellar disks of the spiral galaxies M31 and M33 in the fields covered by the Local Group Galaxy Survey. Their redshifts range from 0.37 to 2.15. Most are X-ray, UV, and IR sources. We also report the discovery of 5 normal background galaxies. Most of these objects were observed owing to their anomalous colors, as part of a program (reported elsewhere) to confirm spectroscopically candidate red supergiant plus B star binaries; others were discovered as part of our identification of early-type massive stars based upon their optical colors. There are 15 previously known quasars in the same fields, for a grand total of 26, 15 behind M31 and 11 behind M33. Of these, only eight were discovered as part of surveys for quasars; the rest were found accidentally. The quasars are well distributed in the M31 and M33 fields, except for the inner regions, and have the potential for being good probes of the interstellar medium in these stellar disks, as well as serving as zero-point calibrators for Gaia parallaxes.
We present the star formation histories (SFHs) of 20 faint M31 satellites ($-12 lesssim M_V lesssim -6$) that were measured by modeling sub-horizontal branch (HB) depth color-magnitude diagrams constructed from Hubble Space Telescope (HST) imaging. Reinforcing previous results, we find that virtually all galaxies quenched between 3 and 9 Gyr ago, independent of luminosity, with a notable concentration $3-6$ Gyr ago. This is in contrast to the Milky Way (MW) satellites, which are generally either faint with ancient quenching times or luminous with recent ($<3$ Gyr) quenching times. We suggest that systematic differences in the quenching times of M31 and MW satellites may be a reflection of the varying accretion histories of M31 and the MW. This result implies that the formation histories of low-mass satellites may not be broadly representative of low-mass galaxies in general. Among the M31 satellite population we identify two distinct groups based on their SFHs: one with exponentially declining SFHs ($tau sim 2$ Gyr) and one with rising SFHs with abrupt quenching. We speculate how these two groups could be related to scenarios for a recent major merger involving M31. The Cycle 27 HST Treasury survey of M31 satellites will provide well-constrained ancient SFHs to go along with the quenching times we measure here. The discovery and characterization of M31 satellites with $M_V gtrsim -6$ would help quantify the relative contributions of reionization and environment to quenching of the lowest-mass satellites.
We present the first proper motion measurements for the galaxy M31. We obtained new V-band imaging data with the HST ACS/WFC and WFC3/UVIS of a spheroid field near the minor axis, an outer disk field along the major axis, and a field on the Giant Southern Stream. The data provide 5-7 year time baselines with respect to pre-existing deep first-epoch observations. We measure the positions of thousands of M31 stars and hundreds of compact background galaxies in each field. High accuracy and robustness is achieved by building and fitting a unique template for each individual object. The average proper motion for each field is obtained from the average motion of the M31 stars between the epochs with respect to the background galaxies. For the three fields, the observed proper motions (mu_W,mu_N) are (-0.0458, -0.0376), (-0.0533, -0.0104), and (-0.0179,-0.0357) mas/yr, respectively. The ability to average over large numbers of objects and over the three fields yields a final accuracy of 0.012 mas/yr. The robustness of the proper-motion measurements and uncertainties are supported by the fact that data from different instruments, taken at different times and with different telescope orientations, as well as measurements of different fields, all yield statistically consistent results. Papers II and III explore the implications for our understanding of the history, future, and mass of the Local Group. (Abridged)
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