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Register a new userThe M31 Velocity Vector. II. Radial Orbit Towards the Milky Way and Implied Local Group Mass
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Authors
Roeland P. van der Marel
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We determine the velocity vector of M31 with respect to the Milky Way and use this to constrain the mass of the Local Group, based on HST proper-motion measurements presented in Paper I. We construct N-body models for M31 to correct the measurements for the contributions from stellar motions internal to M31. We also estimate the center-of-mass motion independently, using the kinematics of satellite galaxies of M31 and the Local Group. All estimates are mutually consistent, and imply a weighted average M31 heliocentric transverse velocity of (v_W,v_N) = (-125.2+/-30.8, -73.8+/-28.4) km/s. We correct for the reflex motion of the Sun using the most recent insights into the solar motion within the Milky Way. This implies a radial velocity of M31 with respect to the Milky Way of V_rad = -109.3+/-4.4 km/s, and a tangential velocity V_tan = 17.0 km/s (<34.3 km/s at 1-sigma confidence). Hence, the velocity vector of M31 is statistically consistent with a radial (head-on collision) orbit towards the Milky Way. We revise prior estimates for the Local Group timing mass, including corrections for cosmic bias and scatter. Bayesian combination with other mass estimates yields M_LG = M_MW(vir) + M_M31(vir) = (3.17 +/- 0.57) x 10^12 solar masses. The velocity and mass results imply at 95% confidence that M33 is bound to M31, consistent with expectation from observed tidal deformations. (Abridged)
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We study the future orbital evolution and merging of the MW-M31-M33 system, using a combination of collisionless N-body simulations and semi-analytic orbit integrations. Monte-Carlo simulations are used to explore the consequences of varying the initial phase-space and mass parameters within their observational uncertainties. The observed M31 transverse velocity implies that the MW and M31 will merge t = 5.86 (+1.61-0.72) Gyr from now, after a first pericenter at t = 3.87 (+0.42-0.32) Gyr. M31 may (probability p=41%) make a direct hit with the MW (defined here as a first-pericenter distance less than 25 kpc). Most likely, the MW and M31 will merge first, with M33 settling onto an orbit around them. Alternatively, M33 may make a direct hit with the MW first (p=9%), or M33 may get ejected from the Local Group (p=7%). The MW-M31 merger remnant will resemble an elliptical galaxy. The Sun will most likely (p=85%) end up at larger radius from the center of the MW-M31 merger remnant than its current distance from the MW center, possibly further than 50 kpc (p=10%). The Sun may (p=20%) at some time in the next 10 Gyr find itself moving through M33 (within 10 kpc), but while dynamically still bound to the MW-M31 merger remnant. The arrival and possible collision of M31 (and possibly M33) with the MW is the next major cosmic event affecting the environment of our Sun and solar system that can be predicted with some certainty. (Abridged)
We examine the prevalence, longevity, and causes of planes of satellite dwarf galaxies, as observed in the Local Group. We use 14 Milky Way/Andromeda-(MW/M31) mass host galaxies from the FIRE-2 simulations. We select the 14 most massive satellites by stellar mass within 300 kpc of each host and correct for incompleteness from the foreground galactic disc when comparing to the MW. We find that MW-like planes as spatially thin and/or kinematically coherent as observed are uncommon, but they do exist in our simulations. Spatially thin planes occur in 1-2 per cent of snapshots during $z=0-0.2$, and kinematically coherent planes occur in 5 per cent of snapshots. These planes are generally transient, surviving for less than 500 Myr. However, if we select hosts with an LMC-like satellite near first pericentre, the fraction of snapshots with MW-like planes increases dramatically to 7-16 per cent, with lifetimes of 0.7-1 Gyr, likely because of group accretion of satellites. We find that M31s satellite distribution is much more common: M31s satellites lie within about 1 sigma of the simulation median for every plane metric we consider. We find no significant difference in average satellite planarity for isolated hosts versus hosts in LG-like pairs. Baryonic and dark matter-only simulations exhibit similar levels of planarity, even though baryonic subhaloes are less centrally concentrated within their host haloes. We conclude that planes of satellites are not a strong challenge to LCDM cosmology.
Measuring the escape velocity of the Milky Way is critical in obtaining the mass of the Milky Way, understanding the dark matter velocity distribution, and building the dark matter density profile. In Necib $&$ Lin (2021), we introduced a strategy to robustly measure the escape velocity. Our approach takes into account the presence of kinematic substructures by modeling the tail of the stellar distribution with multiple components, including the stellar halo and the debris flow called the Gaia Sausage (Enceladus). In doing so, we can test the robustness of the escape velocity measurement for different definitions of the tail of the velocity distribution, and the consistency of the data with different underlying models. In this paper, we apply this method to the second data release of Gaia and find that a model with at least two components is preferred. Based on a fit with three bound components to account for the disk, relaxed halo, and the Gaia Sausage, we find the escape velocity of the Milky Way at the solar position to be $v_{rm{esc}}= 484.6^{+17.8}_{-7.4}$ km/s. Assuming a Navarro-Frenck-White dark matter profile, and taken in conjunction with a recent measurement of the circular velocity at the solar position of $v_c = 230 pm 10$ km/s, we find a Milky Way concentration of $c_{200} = 13.8^{+6.0}_{-4.3}$ and a mass of $M_{200} = 7.0^{+1.9}_{-1.2} times 10^{11} M_{odot}$, which is considerably lighter than previous measurements.
We present several different statistical methods to determine the transverse velocity vector of M31. The underlying assumptions are that the M31 satellites on average follow the motion of M31 through space, and that the galaxies in the outer parts of the Local Group on average follow the motion of the Local Group barycenter through space. We apply the methods to the line-of-sight velocities of 17 M31 satellites, to the proper motions of the 2 satellites M33 and IC 10, and to the line-of-sight velocities of 5 galaxies near the Local Group turn around radius, respectively. This yields 4 independent but mutually consistent determinations of the heliocentric M31 transverse velocities in the West and North directions, with weighted averages <v_W> = -78+/-41 km/s and <v_N> = -38+/-34 km/s. The Galactocentric tangential velocity of M31 is 42 km/s, with 1-sigma confidence interval V_tan <= 56 km/s. The implied M31-Milky Way orbit is bound if the total Local Group mass M exceeds 1.72^{+0.26}_{-0.25}x10^{12} solar masses. If indeed bound, then the timing argument combined with the known age of the Universe implies that M = 5.58^{+0.85}_{-0.72}x10^{12} solar masses. This is on the high end of the allowed mass range suggested by cosmologically motivated models for the individual structure and dynamics of M31 and the Milky Way, respectively. It is therefore possible that the timing mass is an overestimate of the true mass, especially if one takes into account recent results from the Millennium Simulation that show that there is also a theoretical uncertainty of 41 percent (Gaussian dispersion) in timing mass estimates. The M31 transverse velocity implies that M33 is in a tightly bound orbit around M31. This may have led to some tidal deformation of M33. It will be worthwhile to search for observational evidence of this.
We confirm, quantify, and provide a table of the coherent velocity substructure of the Milky Way disk within 2 kpc of the Sun towards the Galactic anticenter, with 0.2 kpc resolution. We use the radial velocities of ~340,000 F-type stars obtained with the Guoshoujing Telescope (also known as the Large Sky Area Multi-Object Fiber Spectroscopic Telescope, LAMOST), and proper motions derived from the PPMXL catalog. The PPMXL proper motions have been corrected to remove systematic errors by subtracting the average proper motions of galaxies and QSOs that have been confirmed in the LAMOST spectroscopic survey, and that are within 2.5 degrees of the stars position. We provide the resulting table of systematic offsets derived from the PPMXL proper motion measurements of extragalactic objects identified in the LAMOST spectroscopic survey. Using the corrected phase- space stellar sample, we find statistically significant deviations in the bulk disk velocity of 20 km/s or more in the three dimensional velocities of Galactic disk stars. The bulk velocity varies significantly over length scales of half a kpc or less. The rotation velocity of the disk increases by 20 km/s from the Suns position to 1.5 kpc outside the solar circle. Disk stars in the second quadrant, within 1 kpc of the Sun, are moving radially towards the Galactic center and vertically towards a point a few tenths of a kpc above the Galactic plane; looking down on the disk, the stars appear to move in a circular streaming motion with a radius of order 1 kpc.
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