No Arabic abstract
We examine the properties of a recently proposed model for antigenic variation in malaria which incorporates multiple epitopes and both long-lasting and transient immune responses. We show that in the case of a vanishing decay rate for the long-lasting immune response, the system exhibits the so-called bifurcations without parameters due to the existence of a hypersurface of equilibria in the phase space. When the decay rate of the long-lasting immune response is different from zero, the hypersurface of equilibria degenerates, and a multitude of other steady states are born, many of which are related by a permutation symmetry of the system. The robustness of the fully symmetric state of the system was investigated by means of numerical computation of transverse Lyapunov exponents. The results of this exercise indicate that for a vanishing decay of long-lasting immune response, the fully symmetric state is not robust in the substantial part of the parameter space, and instead all variants develop their own temporal dynamics contributing to the overall time evolution. At the same time, if the decay rate of the long-lasting immune response is increased, the fully symmetric state can become robust provided the growth rate of the long-lasting immune response is rapid.
An epidemic model with distributed time delay is derived to describe the dynamics of infectious diseases with varying immunity. It is shown that solutions are always positive, and the model has at most two steady states: disease-free and endemic. It is proved that the disease-free equilibrium is locally and globally asymptotically stable. When an endemic equilibrium exists, it is possible to analytically prove its local and global stability using Lyapunov functionals. Bifurcation analysis is performed using DDE-BIFTOOL and traceDDE to investigate different dynamical regimes in the model using numerical continuation for different values of system parameters and different integral kernels.
In the studies of dynamics of pathogens and their interactions with a host immune system, an important role is played by the structure of antigenic variants associated with a pathogen. Using the example of a model of antigenic variation in malaria, we show how many of the observed dynamical regimes can be explained in terms of the symmetry of interactions between different antigenic variants. The results of this analysis are quite generic, and have wider implications for understanding the dynamics of immune escape of other parasites, as well as for the dynamics of multi-strain diseases.
We report on transcritical bifurcations of periodic orbits in non-integrable two-dimensional Hamiltonian systems. We discuss their existence criteria and some of their properties using a recent mathematical description of transcritical bifurcations in families of symplectic maps. We then present numerical examples of transcritical bifurcations in a class of generalized Henon-Heiles Hamiltonians and illustrate their stabilities and unfoldings under various perturbations of the Hamiltonians. We demonstrate that for Hamiltonians containing straight-line librating orbits, the transcritical bifurcation of these orbits is the typical case which occurs also in the absence of any discrete symmetries, while their isochronous pitchfork bifurcation is an exception. We determine the normal forms of both types of bifurcations and derive the uniform approximation required to include transcritically bifurcating orbits in the semiclassical trace formula for the density of states of the quantum Hamiltonian. We compute the coarse-grained density of states in a specific example both semiclassically and quantum mechanically and find excellent agreement of the results.
We consider networks formed from two populations of identical oscillators, with uniform strength all-to-all coupling within populations, and also between populations, with a different strength. Such systems are known to support chimera states in which oscillators within one population are perfectly synchronised while in the other the oscillators are incoherent, and have a different mean frequency from those in the synchronous population. Assuming that the oscillators in the incoherent population always lie on a closed smooth curve $mathcal{C}$, we derive and analyse the dynamics of the shape of $mathcal{C}$ and the probability density on $mathcal{C}$, for four different types of oscillators. We put some previously derived results on a rigorous footing, and analyse two new systems.
This report investigates the dynamical stability conjectures of Palis and Smale, and Pugh and Shub from the standpoint of numerical observation and lays the foundation for a stability conjecture. As the dimension of a dissipative dynamical system is increased, it is observed that the number of positive Lyapunov exponents increases monotonically, the Lyapunov exponents tend towards continuous change with respect to parameter variation, the number of observable periodic windows decreases (at least below numerical precision), and a subset of parameter space exists such that topological change is very common with small parameter perturbation. However, this seemingly inevitable topological variation is never catastrophic (the dynamic type is preserved) if the dimension of the system is high enough.