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Register a new userRisk prediction for prostate cancer recurrence through regularized estimation with simultaneous adjustment for nonlinear clinical effects
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Qi Long
Publication date
2011
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Mathematical Statistics
and research's language is
English
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In biomedical studies it is of substantial interest to develop risk prediction scores using high-dimensional data such as gene expression data for clinical endpoints that are subject to censoring. In the presence of well-established clinical risk factors, investigators often prefer a procedure that also adjusts for these clinical variables. While accelerated failure time (AFT) models are a useful tool for the analysis of censored outcome data, it assumes that covariate effects on the logarithm of time-to-event are linear, which is often unrealistic in practice. We propose to build risk prediction scores through regularized rank estimation in partly linear AFT models, where high-dimensional data such as gene expression data are modeled linearly and important clinical variables are modeled nonlinearly using penalized regression splines. We show through simulation studies that our model has better operating characteristics compared to several existing models. In particular, we show that there is a nonnegligible effect on prediction as well as feature selection when nonlinear clinical effects are misspecified as linear. This work is motivated by a recent prostate cancer study, where investigators collected gene expression data along with established prognostic clinical variables and the primary endpoint is time to prostate cancer recurrence.
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Analyzing outcomes in long-term cancer survivor studies can be complex. The effects of predictors on the failure process may be difficult to assess over longer periods of time, as the commonly used assumption of proportionality of hazards holding over an extended period is often questionable. In this manuscript, we compare seven different survival models that estimate the hazard rate and the effects of proportional and non-proportional covariates. In particular, we focus on an extension of the the multi-resolution hazard (MRH) estimator, combining a non-proportional hierarchical MRH approach with a data-driven pruning algorithm that allows for computational efficiency and produces robust estimates even in times of few observed failures. Using data from a large-scale randomized prostate cancer clinical trial, we examine patterns of biochemical failure and estimate the time-varying effects of androgen deprivation therapy treatment and other covariates. We compare the impact of different modeling strategies and smoothness assumptions on the estimated treatment effect. Our results show that the benefits of treatment diminish over time, possibly with implications for future treatment protocols.
The use of machine learning systems to support decision making in healthcare raises questions as to what extent these systems may introduce or exacerbate disparities in care for historically underrepresented and mistreated groups, due to biases implicitly embedded in observational data in electronic health records. To address this problem in the context of clinical risk prediction models, we develop an augmented counterfactual fairness criteria to extend the group fairness criteria of equalized odds to an individual level. We do so by requiring that the same prediction be made for a patient, and a counterfactual patient resulting from changing a sensitive attribute, if the factual and counterfactual outcomes do not differ. We investigate the extent to which the augmented counterfactual fairness criteria may be applied to develop fair models for prolonged inpatient length of stay and mortality with observational electronic health records data. As the fairness criteria is ill-defined without knowledge of the data generating process, we use a variational autoencoder to perform counterfactual inference in the context of an assumed causal graph. While our technique provides a means to trade off maintenance of fairness with reduction in predictive performance in the context of a learned generative model, further work is needed to assess the generality of this approach.
Multi-parametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI) plays an increasingly important role in the diagnosis of prostate cancer. Various computer-aided detection algorithms have been proposed for automated prostate cancer detection by combining information from various mpMRI data components. However, there exist other features of mpMRI, including the spatial correlation between voxels and between-patient heterogeneity in the mpMRI parameters, that have not been fully explored in the literature but could potentially improve cancer detection if leveraged appropriately. This paper proposes novel voxel-wise Bayesian classifiers for prostate cancer that account for the spatial correlation and between-patient heterogeneity in mpMRI. Modeling the spatial correlation is challenging due to the extreme high dimensionality of the data, and we consider three computationally efficient approaches using Nearest Neighbor Gaussian Process (NNGP), knot-based reduced-rank approximation, and a conditional autoregressive (CAR) model, respectively. The between-patient heterogeneity is accounted for by adding a subject-specific random intercept on the mpMRI parameter model. Simulation results show that properly modeling the spatial correlation and between-patient heterogeneity improves classification accuracy. Application to in vivo data illustrates that classification is improved by spatial modeling using NNGP and reduced-rank approximation but not the CAR model, while modeling the between-patient heterogeneity does not further improve our classifier. Among our proposed models, the NNGP-based model is recommended considering its robust classification accuracy and high computational efficiency.
Identifying individuals who are at high risk of cancer due to inherited germline mutations is critical for effective implementation of personalized prevention strategies. Most existing models to identify these individuals focus on specific syndromes by including family and personal history for a small number of cancers. Recent evidence from multi-gene panel testing has shown that many syndromes once thought to be distinct are overlapping, motivating the development of models that incorporate family history information on several cancers and predict mutations for more comprehensive panels of genes. Once such class of models are Mendelian risk prediction models, which use family history information and Mendelian laws of inheritance to estimate the probability of carrying genetic mutations, as well as future risk of developing associated cancers. To flexibly model the complexity of many cancer-mutation associations, we present a new software tool called PanelPRO, a R package that extends the previously developed BayesMendel R package to user-selected lists of susceptibility genes and associated cancers. The model identifies individuals at an increased risk of carrying cancer susceptibility gene mutations and predicts future risk of developing hereditary cancers associated with those genes. Additional functionalities adjust for prophylactic interventions, known genetic testing results, and risk modifiers such as race and ancestry. The package comes with a customizable database with default parameter values estimated from published studies. The PanelPRO package is open-source and provides a fast and flexible back-end for multi-gene, multi-cancer risk modeling with pedigree data. The software enables the identification of high-risk individuals, which will have an impact on personalized prevention strategies for cancer and individualized decision making about genetic testing.
Background: Transrectal ultrasound guided systematic biopsies of the prostate is a routine procedure to establish a prostate cancer diagnosis. However, the 10-12 prostate core biopsies only sample a relatively small volume of the prostate, and tumour lesions in regions between biopsy cores can be missed, leading to a well-known low sensitivity to detect clinically relevant cancer. As a proof-of-principle, we developed and validated a deep convolutional neural network model to distinguish between morphological patterns in benign prostate biopsy whole slide images from men with and without established cancer. Methods: This study included 14,354 hematoxylin and eosin stained whole slide images from benign prostate biopsies from 1,508 men in two groups: men without an established prostate cancer (PCa) diagnosis and men with at least one core biopsy diagnosed with PCa. 80% of the participants were assigned as training data and used for model optimization (1,211 men), and the remaining 20% (297 men) as a held-out test set used to evaluate model performance. An ensemble of 10 deep convolutional neural network models was optimized for classification of biopsies from men with and without established cancer. Hyperparameter optimization and model selection was performed by cross-validation in the training data . Results: Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC-AUC) was estimated as 0.727 (bootstrap 95% CI: 0.708-0.745) on biopsy level and 0.738 (bootstrap 95% CI: 0.682 - 0.796) on man level. At a specificity of 0.9 the model had an estimated sensitivity of 0.348. Conclusion: The developed model has the ability to detect men with risk of missed PCa due to under-sampling of the prostate. The proposed model has the potential to reduce the number of false negative cases in routine systematic prostate biopsies and to indicate men who could benefit from MRI-guided re-biopsy.
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