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Register a new userTime Distributions of Large and Small Sunspot Groups Over Four Solar Cycles
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Here we analyze solar activity by focusing on time variations of the number of sunspot groups (SGs) as a function of their modified Zurich class. We analyzed data for solar cycles 2023 by using Rome (cycles 2021) and Learmonth Solar Observatory (cycles 2223) SG numbers. All SGs recorded during these time intervals were separated into two groups. The first group includes small SGs (A, B, C, H, and J classes by Zurich classification) and the second group consists of large SGs (D, E, F, and G classes). We then calculated small and large SG numbers from their daily mean numbers as observed on the solar disk during a given month. We report that the time variations of small and large SG numbers are asymmetric except for the solar cycle 22. In general large SG numbers appear to reach their maximum in the middle of the solar cycle (phase 0.450.5), while the international sunspot numbers and the small SG numbers generally peak much earlier (solar cycle phase 0.290.35). Moreover, the 10.7 cm solar radio flux, the facular area, and the maximum CME speed show better agreement with the large SG numbers than they do with the small SG numbers. Our results suggest that the large SG numbers are more likely to shed light on solar activity and its geophysical implications. Our findings may also influence our understanding of long term variations of the total solar irradiance, which is thought to be an important factor in the Sun - Earth climate relationship.
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In order to clarify a possible role of small-scale dynamo in formation of solar magnetic field, we suggest an observational test for small-scale dynamo action based on statistics of anti-Hale sunspot groups. As we have shown, according to theoretical expectations the small-scale dynamo action has to provide a population of sunspot groups which do not follow the Hale polarity law, and the density of such groups on the time-latitude diagram is expected to be independent on the phase of the solar cycle. Correspondingly, a percentage of the anti-Hale groups is expected to reach its maximum values during solar minima. For several solar cycles, we considered statistics of anti-Hale groups obtained by several scientific teams, including ours, to find that the percentage of anti-Hale groups becomes indeed maximal during a solar minimum. Our interpretation is that this fact may be explained by the small-scale dynamo action inside the solar convective zone.
The prediction of solar activity is important for advanced technologies and space activities. The peak sunspot number (SSN), which can represent the solar activity, has declined continuously in the past four solar cycles (21$-$24), and the Sun would experience a Dalton-like minimum, or even the Maunder-like minimum, if the declining trend continues in the following several cycles, so that the predictions of solar activity for cycles 25 and 26 are crucial. In Qin & Wu, 2018, ApJ, we established an SSN prediction model denoted as two-parameter modified logistic prediction (TMLP) model, which can predict the variation of SSNs in a solar cycle if the start time of the cycle has been determined. In this work, we obtain a new model denoted as TMLP-extension (TMLP-E). If the start time of a cycle $n$ is already known, TMLP-E can predict the variation of SSNs in the cycle $n+1$. Cycle 25 is believed to start in December 2019, so that the predictions of cycles 25 and 26 can be made with our models. It is found that the predicted solar maximum, ascent time, and cycle length are 115.1, 4.84 yr, and 11.06 yr, respectively, for cycle 25, and 107.3, 4.80 yr, and 10.97 yr, respectively, for cycle 26. The solar activities of cycles 25 and 26 are predicted to be at the same level as that of cycle 24, but will not decrease further. We therefore suggest that the cycles 24$-$26 are at a minimum of Gleissberg cycle.
We use recently digitized sunspot drawings from Mount Wilson Observatory to investigate the latitudinal dependence of tilt angles of active regions and its change with solar cycle. The drawings cover the period from 1917 to present and contain information about polarity and strength of magnetic field in sunspots. We identify clusters of sunspots of same polarity, and used these clusters to form ``bipole pairs. The orientation of these bipole pairs was used to measure their tilts. We find that the latitudinal profile of tilts does not monotonically increase with latitude as most previous studies assumed, but instead, it shows a clear maximum at about 25--30 degree latitudes. Functional dependence of tilt ($gamma$) on latitude ($varphi$) was found to be $gamma = (0.20pm 0.08) sin (2.80 varphi) + (-0.00pm 0.06)$. We also find that latitudinal dependence of tilts varies from one solar cycle to another, but larger tilts do not seem to result in stronger solar cycles. Finally, we find the presence of a systematic offset in tilt of active regions (non-zero tilts at the equator), with odd cycles exhibiting negative offset and even cycles showing the positive offset.
The extended minimum of Solar Cycle 23, the extremely quiet solar-wind conditions prevailing, and the mini-maximum of Solar Cycle 24 drew global attention and many authors have since attempted to predict the amplitude of the upcoming Solar Cycle 25, which is predicted to be the third successive weak cycle; it is a unique opportunity to probe the Sun during such quiet periods. Earlier work has established a steady decline, over two decades, in solar photospheric fields at latitudes above $45^{circ}$ and a similar decline in solar-wind micro-turbulence levels as measured by interplanetary scintillation (IPS) observations. However, the relation between the photospheric magnetic fields and those in the low corona/solar-wind are not straightforward. Therefore, in the present article, we have used potential-field source-surface (PFSS) extrapolations to deduce global magnetic-fields using synoptic magnetograms observed with National Solar Observatory (NSO), Kitt Peak, USA (NSO/KP) and Solar Optical Long-term Investigation of the Sun (NSO/SOLIS) instruments during 1975-2018. Furthermore, we have measured the normalized scintillation index [m] using the IPS observations carried out at the Institute of Space Earth Environment Research (ISEE), Japan during 1983-2017. From these observations, we have found that, since the mid-1990s, the magnetic-field over different latitudes at 2.5 $rm R_{odot}$ and 10 $rm R_{odot}$(extrapolated using PFSS method) has decreased by $approx 11.3-22.2 %$. In phase with the declining magnetic-fields, the quantity m also declined by $approx 23.6 %$. These observations emphasize the inter-relationship between the global magnetic-field and various turbulence parameters in the solar corona and solar wind.
Aims. In this paper, we aim to study the time dependence of sunspot group areas in a large sample composed of various databases spanning over 130 years, used state-of-the-art statistical methods. Methods. For a carefully selected but unbiased sample, we use Bayesian modelling to fit the temporal evolution of the combined umbral and penumbral area of spot groups with a skew-normal function to determine the existence of any asymmetry in spot growth or decay. Our primary selection criteria guaranteed that only spot groups with a well-defined maximum area were taken into account. We also analysed the covariance of the resulting model parameters and their correlations with the physical parameters of the sunspots and the ongoing solar cycle. Results. Our results show that the temporal evolution of well-observed sunspot groups that reach at least 50 millionths of a solar hemisphere (MSH) at their maximum can be fitted surprisingly well with our model. Furthermore, we show significant asymmetry - described by a skew parameter of fitted curves - between the growing and decaying phases of analysed sunspot groups. In addition, we found a weak correlation between the values of skew parameters and the maximum area of sunspot groups and their hemispherical latitude.
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