Subscribe to the gold package and get unlimited access to Shamra Academy
Register a new userInherent Difficulties of Non-Bayesian Likelihood-based Inference, as Revealed by an Examination of a Recent Book by Aitkin
124
0
0.0
(
0
)
Added by
Christian P. Robert
Publication date
2010
fields
Mathematical Statistics
and research's language is
English
Ask ChatGPT about the research
No Arabic abstract
For many decades, statisticians have made attempts to prepare the Bayesian omelette without breaking the Bayesian eggs; that is, to obtain probabilistic likelihood-based inferences without relying on informative prior distributions. A recent example is Murray Aitkins recent book, {em Statistical Inference}, which presents an approach to statistical hypothesis testing based on comparisons of posterior distributions of likelihoods under competing models. Aitkin develops and illustrates his method using some simple examples of inference from iid data and two-way tests of independence. We analyze in this note some consequences of the inferential paradigm adopted therein, discussing why the approach is incompatible with a Bayesian perspective and why we do not find it relevant for applied work.
rate research
Read More
This paper examines the statistical properties of a distributional form that arises from pooled testing for the prevalence of a binary outcome. Our base distribution is a two-parameter distribution using a prevalence and excess intensity parameter; the latter is included to allow for a dilution or intensification effect with larger pools. We also examine a generalised form of the distribution where pools have covariate information that affects the prevalence through a linked linear form. We study the general pooled binomial distribution in its own right and as a special case of broader forms of binomial GLMs using the complementary log-log link function. We examine the information function and show the information content of individual sample items. We demonstrate that pooling reduces information content of sample units and we give simple heuristics for choosing an optimal pool size for testing. We derive the form of the log-likelihood function and its derivatives and give results for maximum likelihood estimation. We also discuss diagnostic testing of the positive pool probabilities, including testing for intensification/dilution in the testing mechanism. We illustrate the use of this distribution by applying it to pooled testing data on virus prevalence in a mosquito population.
For more than a century, fingerprints have been used with considerable success to identify criminals or verify the identity of individuals. The categorical conclusion scheme used by fingerprint examiners, and more generally the inference process followed by forensic scientists, have been heavily criticised in the scientific and legal literature. Instead, scholars have proposed to characterise the weight of forensic evidence using the Bayes factor as the key element of the inference process. In forensic science, quantifying the magnitude of support is equally as important as determining which model is supported. Unfortunately, the complexity of fingerprint patterns render likelihood-based inference impossible. In this paper, we use an Approximate Bayesian Computation model selection algorithm to quantify the weight of fingerprint evidence. We supplement the ABC algorithm using a Receiver Operating Characteristic curve to mitigate the effect of the curse of dimensionality. Our modified algorithm is computationally efficient and makes it easier to monitor convergence as the number of simulations increase. We use our method to quantify the weight of fingerprint evidence in forensic science, but we note that it can be applied to any other forensic pattern evidence.
In a network meta-analysis, some of the collected studies may deviate markedly from the others, for example having very unusual effect sizes. These deviating studies can be regarded as outlying with respect to the rest of the network and can be influential on the pooled results. Thus, it could be inappropriate to synthesize those studies without further investigation. In this paper, we propose two Bayesian methods to detect outliers in a network meta-analysis via: (a) a mean-shifted outlier model and (b), posterior predictive p-values constructed from ad-hoc discrepancy measures. The former method uses Bayes factors to formally test each study against outliers while the latter provides a score of outlyingness for each study in the network, which allows to numerically quantify the uncertainty associated with being outlier. Furthermore, we present a simple method based on informative priors as part of the network meta-analysis model to down-weight the detected outliers. We conduct extensive simulations to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology while comparing it to some alternative, available outlier diagnostic tools. Two real networks of interventions are then used to demonstrate our methods in practice.
The celebrated Bernstein von-Mises theorem ensures that credible regions from Bayesian posterior are well-calibrated when the model is correctly-specified, in the frequentist sense that their coverage probabilities tend to the nominal values as data accrue. However, this conventional Bayesian framework is known to lack robustness when the model is misspecified or only partly specified, such as in quantile regression, risk minimization based supervised/unsupervised learning and robust estimation. To overcome this difficulty, we propose a new Bayesian inferential approach that substitutes the (misspecified or partly specified) likelihoods with proper exponentially tilted empirical likelihoods plus a regularization term. Our surrogate empirical likelihood is carefully constructed by using the first order optimality condition of the empirical risk minimization as the moment condition. We show that the Bayesian posterior obtained by combining this surrogate empirical likelihood and the prior is asymptotically close to a normal distribution centering at the empirical risk minimizer with covariance matrix taking an appropriate sandwiched form. Consequently, the resulting Bayesian credible regions are automatically calibrated to deliver valid uncertainty quantification. Computationally, the proposed method can be easily implemented by Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithms. Our numerical results show that the proposed method tends to be more accurate than existing state-of-the-art competitors.
We investigate a Poisson sampling design in the presence of unknown selection probabilities when applied to a population of unknown size for multiple sampling occasions. The fixed-population model is adopted and extended upon for inference. The complete minimal sufficient statistic is derived for the sampling model parameters and fixed-population parameter vector. The Rao-Blackwell version of population quantity estimators is detailed. An application is applied to an emprical population. The extended inferential framework is found to have much potential and utility for empirical studies.
suggested questions
Log in to be able to interact and post comments
comments
Fetching comments
Sign in to be able to follow your search criteria
