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Register a new userA method for efficient measurement of gravitational lens time delays
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The Hubble constant value is currently known to 10% accuracy unless assumptions are made for the cosmology (Sandage et al. 2006). Gravitational lens systems provide another probe of the Hubble constant using time delay measurements. However, current investigations of ~20 time delay lenses, albeit of varying levels of sophistication, have resulted in different values of the Hubble constant ranging from 50-80 km/s/Mpc. In order to reduce uncertainties, more time delay measurements are essential together with better determined mass models (Oguri 2007, Saha et al. 2006). We propose a more efficient technique for measuring time delays which does not require regular monitoring with a high-resolution interferometer array. The method uses double image and long-axis quadruple lens systems in which the brighter component varies first and dominates the total flux density. Monitoring the total flux density with low-resolution but high sensitivity radio telescopes provides the variation of the brighter image and is used to trigger high-resolution observations which can then be used to see the variation in the fainter image. We present simulations of this method together with a pilot project using the WSRT (Westerbork Radio Synthesis Telescope) to trigger VLA (Very Large Array) observations. This new method is promising for measuring time delays because it uses relatively small amounts of time on high-resolution telescopes. This will be important because many SKA pathfinder telescopes, such as MeerKAT (Karoo Array Telescope) and ASKAP (Australian Square Kilometre Array Pathfinder), have high sensitivity but limited resolution.
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Strong lensing gravitational time delays are a powerful and cost effective probe of dark energy. Recent studies have shown that a single lens can provide a distance measurement with 6-7 % accuracy (including random and systematic uncertainties), provided sufficient data are available to determine the time delay and reconstruct the gravitational potential of the deflector. Gravitational-time delays are a low redshift (z~0-2) probe and thus allow one to break degeneracies in the interpretation of data from higher-redshift probes like the cosmic microwave background in terms of the dark energy equation of state. Current studies are limited by the size of the sample of known lensed quasars, but this situation is about to change. Even in this decade, wide field imaging surveys are likely to discover thousands of lensed quasars, enabling the targeted study of ~100 of these systems and resulting in substantial gains in the dark energy figure of merit. In the next decade, a further order of magnitude improvement will be possible with the 10000 systems expected to be detected and measured with LSST and Euclid. To fully exploit these gains, we identify three priorities. First, support for the development of software required for the analysis of the data. Second, in this decade, small robotic telescopes (1-4m in diameter) dedicated to monitoring of lensed quasars will transform the field by delivering accurate time delays for ~100 systems. Third, in the 2020s, LSST will deliver 1000s of time delays; the bottleneck will instead be the aquisition and analysis of high resolution imaging follow-up. Thus, the top priority for the next decade is to support fast high resolution imaging capabilities, such as those enabled by the James Webb Space Telescope and next generation adaptive optics systems on large ground based telescopes.
There are now 10 firm time delay measurements in gravitational lenses. The physics of time delays is well understood, and the only important variable for interpreting the time delays to determine H_0 is the mean surface mass density <k> (in units of the critical density for gravitational lensing) of the lens galaxy at the radius of the lensed images. More centrally concentrated mass distributions with lower <k> predict higher Hubble constants, with H_0~1-<k> to lowest order. While we cannot determine <k> directly given the available data on the current time delay lenses, we find H_0=48+/-3 km/s/Mpc for the isothermal (flat rotation curve) models, which are our best present estimate for the mass distributions of the lens galaxies. Only if we eliminate the dark matter halo of the lenses and use a constant mass-to-light ratio (M/L) model to find H_0=71+/-3 km/s/Mpc is the result consistent with local estimates. Measurements of time delays in better-constrained systems or observations to obtain new constraints on the current systems provide a clear path to eliminating the <k> degeneracy and making estimates of H_0 with smaller uncertainties than are possible locally. Independent of the value of H_0, the time delay lenses provide a new and unique probe of the dark matter distributions of galaxies and clusters because they measure the total (light + dark) matter surface density.
Present day estimates of the Hubble constant based on Cepheids and on the cosmic microwave background radiation are uncertain by roughly 10% (on the conservative assumption that the universe may not be PERFECTLY flat). Gravitational lens time delay measurements can produce estimates that are less uncertain, but only if a variety of major difficulties are overcome. These include a paucity of constraints on the lensing potential, the degeneracies associated with mass sheets and the central concentration of the lensing galaxy, multiple lenses, microlensing by stars, and the small variability amplitude typical of most quasars. To date only one lens meets all of these challenges. Several suffer only from the central concentration degeneracy, which may be lifted if one is willing to assume that systems with time delays are either like better constrained systems with non-variable sources, or alternatively, like nearby galaxies.
Obtaining lensing time delay measurements requires long-term monitoring campaigns with a high enough resolution (< 1 arcsec) to separate the multiple images. In the radio, a limited number of high-resolution interferometer arrays make these observations difficult to schedule. To overcome this problem, we propose a technique for measuring gravitational time delays which relies on monitoring the total flux density with low-resolution but high-sensitivity radio telescopes to follow the variation of the brighter image. This is then used to trigger high-resolution observations in optimal numbers which then reveal the variation in the fainter image. We present simulations to assess the efficiency of this method together with a pilot project observing radio lens systems with the Westerbork Synthesis Radio Telescope (WSRT) to trigger Very Large Array (VLA) observations. This new method is promising for measuring time delays because it uses relatively small amounts of time on high-resolution telescopes. This will be important because instruments that have high sensitivity but limited resolution, together with an optimum usage of followup high-resolution observations from appropriate radio telescopes may in the future be useful for gravitational lensing time delay measurements by means of this new method.
Optical photometry is presented for the quadruple gravitational lens PG1115+080. A preliminary reduction of data taken from November 1995 to June 1996 gives component ``C leading component ``B by 23.7+/-3.4 days and components ``A1 and ``A2 by 9.4 days. A range of models has been fit to the image positions, none of which gives an adequate fit. The best fitting and most physically plausible of these, taking the lensing galaxy and the associated group of galaxies to be singular isothermal spheres, gives a Hubble constant of 42 km/s/Mpc for Omega=1, with an observational uncertainty of 14%, as computed from the B-C time delay measurement. Taking the lensing galaxy to have an approximately E5 isothermal mass distribution yields H0=64 km/sec/Mpc while taking the galaxy to be a point mass gives H0=84 km/sec/Mpc. The former gives a particularly bad fit to the position of the lensing galaxy, while the latter is inconsistent with measurements of nearby galaxy rotation curves. Constraints on these and other possible models are expected to improve with planned HST observations.
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