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Register a new userGlobal sensitivity analysis for models with spatially dependent outputs
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Added by
Bertrand Iooss
Publication date
2009
fields
Mathematical Statistics
and research's language is
English
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The global sensitivity analysis of a complex numerical model often calls for the estimation of variance-based importance measures, named Sobol indices. Metamodel-based techniques have been developed in order to replace the cpu time-expensive computer code with an inexpensive mathematical function, which predicts the computer code output. The common metamodel-based sensitivity analysis methods are well-suited for computer codes with scalar outputs. However, in the environmental domain, as in many areas of application, the numerical model outputs are often spatial maps, which may also vary with time. In this paper, we introduce an innovative method to obtain a spatial map of Sobol indices with a minimal number of numerical model computations. It is based upon the functional decomposition of the spatial output onto a wavelet basis and the metamodeling of the wavelet coefficients by the Gaussian process. An analytical example is presented to clarify the various steps of our methodology. This technique is then applied to a real hydrogeological case: for each model input variable, a spatial map of Sobol indices is thus obtained.
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Let $X:=(X_1, ldots, X_p)$ be random objects (the inputs), defined on some probability space $(Omega,{mathcal{F}}, mathbb P)$ and valued in some measurable space $E=E_1timesldots times E_p$. Further, let $Y:=Y = f(X_1, ldots, X_p)$ be the output. Here, $f$ is a measurable function from $E$ to some Hilbert space $mathbb{H}$ ($mathbb{H}$ could be either of finite or infinite dimension). In this work, we give a natural generalization of the Sobol indices (that are classically defined when $Yinmathbb R$ ), when the output belongs to $mathbb{H}$. These indices have very nice properties. First, they are invariant. under isometry and scaling. Further they can be, as in dimension $1$, easily estimated by using the so-called Pick and Freeze method. We investigate the asymptotic behaviour of such estimation scheme.
Sensitivity indices when the inputs of a model are not independent are estimated by local polynomial techniques. Two original estimators based on local polynomial smoothers are proposed. Both have good theoretical properties which are exhibited and also illustrated through analytical examples. They are used to carry out a sensitivity analysis on a real case of a kinetic model with correlated parameters.
In this paper, the sensitivity analysis of a single scale model is employed in order to reduce the input dimensionality of the related multiscale model, in this way, improving the efficiency of its uncertainty estimation. The approach is illustrated with two examples: a reaction model and the standard Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Additionally, a counterexample shows that an uncertain input should not be excluded from uncertainty quantification without estimating the response sensitivity to this parameter. In particular, an analysis of the function defining the relation between single scale components is required to understand whether single scale sensitivity analysis can be used to reduce the dimensionality of the overall multiscale model input space.
Most generative models for clustering implicitly assume that the number of data points in each cluster grows linearly with the total number of data points. Finite mixture models, Dirichlet process mixture models, and Pitman--Yor process mixture models make this assumption, as do all other infinitely exchangeable clustering models. However, for some applications, this assumption is inappropriate. For example, when performing entity resolution, the size of each cluster should be unrelated to the size of the data set, and each cluster should contain a negligible fraction of the total number of data points. These applications require models that yield clusters whose sizes grow sublinearly with the size of the data set. We address this requirement by defining the microclustering property and introducing a new class of models that can exhibit this property. We compare models within this class to two commonly used clustering models using four entity-resolution data sets.
The study makes use of polynomial chaos expansions to compute Sobol indices within the frame of a global sensitivity analysis of hydro-dispersive parameters in a simplified vertical cross-section of a segment of the subsurface of the Paris Basin. Applying conservative ranges, the uncertainty in 78 input variables is propagated upon the mean lifetime expectancy of water molecules departing from a specific location within a highly confining layer situated in the middle of the model domain. Lifetime expectancy is a hydrogeological performance measure pertinent to safety analysis with respect to subsurface contaminants, such as radionuclides. The sensitivity analysis indicates that the variability in the mean lifetime expectancy can be sufficiently explained by the uncertainty in the petrofacies, ie the sets of porosity and hydraulic conductivity, of only a few layers of the model. The obtained results provide guidance regarding the uncertainty modeling in future investigations employing detailed numerical models of the subsurface of the Paris Basin. Moreover, the study demonstrates the high efficiency of sparse polynomial chaos expansions in computing Sobol indices for high-dimensional models.
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