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Register a new userType Ia Supernova Light Curve Inference: Hierarchical Bayesian Analysis in the Near Infrared
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We present a comprehensive statistical analysis of the properties of Type Ia SN light curves in the near infrared using recent data from PAIRITEL and the literature. We construct a hierarchical Bayesian framework, incorporating several uncertainties including photometric error, peculiar velocities, dust extinction and intrinsic variations, for coherent statistical inference. SN Ia light curve inferences are drawn from the global posterior probability of parameters describing both individual supernovae and the population conditioned on the entire SN Ia NIR dataset. The logical structure of the hierarchical model is represented by a directed acyclic graph. Fully Bayesian analysis of the model and data is enabled by an efficient MCMC algorithm exploiting the conditional structure using Gibbs sampling. We apply this framework to the JHK_s SN Ia light curve data. A new light curve model captures the observed J-band light curve shape variations. The intrinsic variances in peak absolute magnitudes are: sigma(M_J) = 0.17 +/- 0.03, sigma(M_H) = 0.11 +/- 0.03, and sigma(M_Ks) = 0.19 +/- 0.04. We describe the first quantitative evidence for correlations between the NIR absolute magnitudes and J-band light curve shapes, and demonstrate their utility for distance estimation. The average residual in the Hubble diagram for the training set SN at cz > 2000 km/s is 0.10 mag. The new application of bootstrap cross-validation to SN Ia light curve inference tests the sensitivity of the model fit to the finite sample and estimates the prediction error at 0.15 mag. These results demonstrate that SN Ia NIR light curves are as effective as optical light curves, and, because they are less vulnerable to dust absorption, they have great potential as precise and accurate cosmological distance indicators.
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We present the first maximum-light ultraviolet (UV) through near-infrared (NIR) Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) spectrum. This spectrum of SN 2011iv was obtained nearly simultaneously by the Hubble Space Telescope at UV/optical wavelengths and the Magellan Baade telescope at NIR wavelengths. These data provide the opportunity to examine the entire maximum-light SN Ia spectral-energy distribution. Since the UV region of a SN Ia spectrum is extremely sensitive to the composition of the outer layers of the explosion, which are transparent at longer wavelengths, this unprecedented spectrum can provide strong constraints on the composition of the SN ejecta, and similarly the SN explosion and progenitor system. SN 2011iv is spectroscopically normal, but has a relatively fast decline (Delta m_15 (B) = 1.69 +/- 0.05 mag). We compare SN 2011iv to other SNe Ia with UV spectra near maximum light and examine trends between UV spectral properties, light-curve shape, and ejecta velocity. We tentatively find that SNe with similar light-curve shapes but different ejecta velocities have similar UV spectra, while those with similar ejecta velocities but different light-curve shapes have very different UV spectra. Through a comparison with explosion models, we find that both a solar-metallicity W7 and a zero-metallicity delayed-detonation model provide a reasonable fit to the spectrum of SN 2011iv from the UV to the NIR.
We use simulated SN Ia samples, including both photometry and spectra, to perform the first direct validation of cosmology analysis using the SALT-II light curve model. This validation includes residuals from the light curve training process, systematic biases in SN Ia distance measurements, and the bias on the dark energy equation of state parameter w. Using the SN-analysis package SNANA, we simulate and analyze realistic samples corresponding to the data samples used in the SNLS3 analysis: 120 low-redshift (z < 0.1) SNe Ia, 255 SDSS SNe Ia (z < 0.4), and 290 SNLS SNe Ia (z <= 1). To probe systematic uncertainties in detail, we vary the input spectral model, the model of intrinsic scatter, and the smoothing (i.e., regularization) parameters used during the SALT-II model training. Using realistic intrinsic scatter models results in a slight bias in the ultraviolet portion of the trained SALT-II model, and w biases (winput - wrecovered) ranging from -0.005 +/- 0.012 to -0.024 +/- 0.010. These biases are indistinguishable from each other within uncertainty; the average bias on w is -0.014 +/- 0.007.
We present ten medium-resolution, high signal-to-noise ratio near-infrared (NIR) spectra of SN 2011fe from SpeX on the NASA Infrared Telescope Facility (IRTF) and Gemini Near-Infrared Spectrograph (GNIRS) on Gemini North, obtained as part of the Carnegie Supernova Project. This data set constitutes the earliest time-series NIR spectroscopy of a Type Ia supernova (SN Ia), with the first spectrum obtained at 2.58 days past the explosion and covering -14.6 to +17.3 days relative to B-band maximum. C I {lambda}1.0693 {mu}m is detected in SN 2011fe with increasing strength up to maximum light. The delay in the onset of the NIR C I line demonstrates its potential to be an effective tracer of unprocessed material. For the first time in a SN Ia, the early rapid decline of the Mg II {lambda}1.0927 {mu}m velocity was observed, and the subsequent velocity is remarkably constant. The Mg II velocity during this constant phase locates the inner edge of carbon burning and probes the conditions under which the transition from deflagration to detonation occurs. We show that the Mg II velocity does not correlate with the optical light-curve decline rate {Delta}m15. The prominent break at ~1.5 {mu}m is the main source of concern for NIR k-correction calculations. We demonstrate here that the feature has a uniform time evolution among SNe Ia, with the flux ratio across the break strongly correlated with {Delta}m15. The predictability of the strength and the onset of this feature suggests that the associated k-correction uncertainties can be minimized with improved spectral templates.
Much of the cosmological utility thus far extracted from Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) relies on the assumption that SN~Ia peak luminosities do not evolve significantly with the age (local or global) of their stellar environments. Two recent studies have provided conflicting results in evaluating the validity of this assumption, with one finding no correlation between Hubble residuals (HR) and stellar environment age, while the other claims a significant correlation. In this Letter we perform an independent reanalysis that rectifies issues with the statistical methods employed by both of the aforementioned studies. Our analysis follows a principled approach that properly accounts for regression dilution and critically (and unlike both prior studies) utilises the Bayesian-model-produced SN environment age estimates (posterior samples) instead of point estimates. Moreover, the posterior is used as an informative prior in the regression. We find the Pearson correlation between the HR and local (global) age to be in excess of $4sigma$ ($3sigma$). Assuming there exists a linear relationship between HR and local (global) age, we find a corresponding slope of $-0.035 pm 0.007,mathrm{mag,Gyr}^{-1}$ ($-0.036 pm 0.007,mathrm{mag,Gyr}^{-1}$). We encourage further usage of our approach to examine possible cosmological implications of the HR and age correlation.
We main goal of this paper is to test whether the NIR peak magnitudes of SNe Ia could be accurately estimated with only a single observation obtained close to maximum light, provided the time of B band maximum and the optical stretch parameter are known. We obtained multi-epoch UBVRI and single-epoch J and H photometric observations of 16 SNe Ia in the redshift range z=0.037-0.183, doubling the leverage of the current SN Ia NIR Hubble diagram and the number of SNe beyond redshift 0.04. This sample was analyzed together with 102 NIR and 458 optical light curves (LCs) of normal SNe Ia from the literature. The analysis of 45 well-sampled NIR LCs shows that a single template accurately describes them if its time axis is stretched with the optical stretch parameter. This allows us to estimate the NIR peak magnitudes even with one observation obtained within 10 days from B-band maximum. We find that the NIR Hubble residuals show weak correlation with DM_15 and E(B-V), and for the first time we report a possible dependence on the J_max-H_max color. The intrinsic NIR luminosity scatter of SNe Ia is estimated to be around 0.10 mag, which is smaller than what can be derived for a similarly heterogeneous sample at optical wavelengths. In conclusion, we find that SNe Ia are at least as good standard candles in the NIR as in the optical. We showed that it is feasible to extended the NIR SN Ia Hubble diagram to z=0.2 with very modest sampling of the NIR LCs, if complemented by well-sampled optical LCs. Our results suggest that the most efficient way to extend the NIR Hubble diagram to high redshift would be to obtain a single observation close to the NIR maximum. (abridged)
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