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Register a new userCentral Limit Theorems for Multicolor Urns with Dominated Colors
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Patrizia Berti
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An urn contains balls of d colors. At each time, a ball is drawn and then replaced together with a random number of balls of the same color. Assuming that some colors are dominated by others, we prove central limit theorems. Some statistical applications are discussed.
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We consider a variant of the randomly reinforced urn where more balls can be simultaneously drawn out and balls of different colors can be simultaneously added. More precisely, at each time-step, the conditional distribution of the number of extracted balls of a certain color given the past is assumed to be hypergeometric. We prove some central limit theorems in the sense of stable convergence and of almost sure conditional convergence, which are stronger than convergence in distribution. The proven results provide asymptotic confidence intervals for the limit proportion, whose distribution is generally unknown. Moreover, we also consider the case of more urns subjected to some random common factors.
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An urn contains black and red balls. Let $Z_n$ be the proportion of black balls at time $n$ and $0leq L<Uleq 1$ random barriers. At each time $n$, a ball $b_n$ is drawn. If $b_n$ is black and $Z_{n-1}<U$, then $b_n$ is replaced together with a random number $B_n$ of black balls. If $b_n$ is red and $Z_{n-1}>L$, then $b_n$ is replaced together with a random number $R_n$ of red balls. Otherwise, no additional balls are added, and $b_n$ alone is replaced. In this paper, we assume $R_n=B_n$. Then, under mild conditions, it is shown that $Z_noverset{a.s.}longrightarrow Z$ for some random variable $Z$, and begin{gather*} D_n:=sqrt{n},(Z_n-Z)longrightarrowmathcal{N}(0,sigma^2)quadtext{conditionally a.s.} end{gather*} where $sigma^2$ is a certain random variance. Almost sure conditional convergence means that begin{gather*} Pbigl(D_nincdotmidmathcal{G}_nbigr)overset{weakly}longrightarrowmathcal{N}(0,,sigma^2)quadtext{a.s.} end{gather*} where $Pbigl(D_nincdotmidmathcal{G}_nbigr)$ is a regular version of the conditional distribution of $D_n$ given the past $mathcal{G}_n$. Thus, in particular, one obtains $D_nlongrightarrowmathcal{N}(0,sigma^2)$ stably. It is also shown that $L<Z<U$ a.s. and $Z$ has non-atomic distribution.
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