No Arabic abstract
We consider a robust model proposed by Scarf, 1958, for stochastic optimization when only the marginal probabilities of (binary) random variables are given, and the correlation between the random variables is unknown. In the robust model, the objective is to minimize expected cost against worst possible joint distribution with those marginals. We introduce the concept of correlation gap to compare this model to the stochastic optimization model that ignores correlations and minimizes expected cost under independent Bernoulli distribution. We identify a class of functions, using concepts of summable cost sharing schemes from game theory, for which the correlation gap is well-bounded and the robust model can be approximated closely by the independent distribution model. As a result, we derive efficient approximation factors for many popular cost functions, like submodular functions, facility location, and Steiner tree. As a byproduct, our analysis also yields some new results in the areas of social welfare maximization and existence of Walrasian equilibria, which may be of independent interest.
Two-stage stochastic optimization is a framework for modeling uncertainty, where we have a probability distribution over possible realizations of the data, called scenarios, and decisions are taken in two stages: we make first-stage decisions knowing only the underlying distribution and before a scenario is realized, and may take additional second-stage recourse actions after a scenario is realized. The goal is typically to minimize the total expected cost. A criticism of this model is that the underlying probability distribution is itself often imprecise! To address this, a versatile approach that has been proposed is the {em distributionally robust 2-stage model}: given a collection of probability distributions, our goal now is to minimize the maximum expected total cost with respect to a distribution in this collection. We provide a framework for designing approximation algorithms in such settings when the collection is a ball around a central distribution and the central distribution is accessed {em only via a sampling black box}. We first show that one can utilize the {em sample average approximation} (SAA) method to reduce the problem to the case where the central distribution has {em polynomial-size} support. We then show how to approximately solve a fractional relaxation of the SAA (i.e., polynomial-scenario central-distribution) problem. By complementing this via LP-rounding algorithms that provide {em local} (i.e., per-scenario) approximation guarantees, we obtain the {em first} approximation algorithms for the distributionally robus
In this paper, we present approximation algorithms for combinatorial optimization problems under probabilistic constraints. Specifically, we focus on stochastic variants of two important combinatorial optimization problems: the k-center problem and the set cover problem, with uncertainty characterized by a probability distribution over set of points or elements to be covered. We consider these problems under adaptive and non-adaptive settings, and present efficient approximation algorithms for the case when underlying distribution is a product distribution. In contrast to the expected cost model prevalent in stochastic optimization literature, our problem definitions support restrictions on the probability distributions of the total costs, via incorporating constraints that bound the probability with which the incurred costs may exceed a given threshold.
This paper studies a robust portfolio optimization problem under the multi-factor volatility model introduced by Christoffersen et al. (2009). The optimal strategy is derived analytically under the worst-case scenario with or without derivative trading. To illustrate the effects of ambiguity, we compare our optimal robust strategy with some strategies that ignore the information of uncertainty, and provide the corresponding welfare analysis. The effects of derivative trading to the optimal portfolio selection are also discussed by considering alternative strategies. Our study is further extended to the cases with jump risks in asset price and correlated volatility factors, respectively. Numerical experiments are provided to demonstrate the behavior of the optimal portfolio and utility loss.
Stochastic network design is a general framework for optimizing network connectivity. It has several applications in computational sustainability including spatial conservation planning, pre-disaster network preparation, and river network optimization. A common assumption in previous work has been made that network parameters (e.g., probability of species colonization) are precisely known, which is unrealistic in real- world settings. We therefore address the robust river network design problem where the goal is to optimize river connectivity for fish movement by removing barriers. We assume that fish passability probabilities are known only imprecisely, but are within some interval bounds. We then develop a planning approach that computes the policies with either high robust ratio or low regret. Empirically, our approach scales well to large river networks. We also provide insights into the solutions generated by our robust approach, which has significantly higher robust ratio than the baseline solution with mean parameter estimates.
Trajectory optimization with contact-rich behaviors has recently gained attention for generating diverse locomotion behaviors without pre-specified ground contact sequences. However, these approaches rely on precise models of robot dynamics and the terrain and are susceptible to uncertainty. Recent works have attempted to handle uncertainties in the system model, but few have investigated uncertainty in contact dynamics. In this study, we model uncertainty stemming from the terrain and design corresponding risk-sensitive objectives under the framework of contact-implicit trajectory optimization. In particular, we parameterize uncertainties from the terrain contact distance and friction coefficients using probability distributions and propose a corresponding expected residual minimization cost design approach. We evaluate our method in three simple robotic examples, including a legged hopping robot, and we benchmark one of our examples in simulation against a robust worst-case solution. We show that our risk-sensitive method produces contact-averse trajectories that are robust to terrain perturbations. Moreover, we demonstrate that the resulting trajectories converge to those generated by a traditional, non-robust method as the terrain model becomes more certain. Our study marks an important step towards a fully robust, contact-implicit approach suitable for deploying robots on real-world terrain.