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In this article we revisit the classic problem of tatonnement in price formation from a microstructure point of view, reviewing a recent body of theoretical and empirical work explaining how fluctuations in supply and demand are slowly incorporated into prices. Because revealed market liquidity is extremely low, large orders to buy or sell can only be traded incrementally, over periods of time as long as months. As a result order flow is a highly persistent long-memory process. Maintaining compatibility with market efficiency has profound consequences on price formation, on the dynamics of liquidity, and on the nature of impact. We review a body of theory that makes detailed quantitative predictions about the volume and time dependence of market impact, the bid-ask spread, order book dynamics, and volatility. Comparisons to data yield some encouraging successes. This framework suggests a novel interpretation of financial information, in which agents are at best only weakly informed and all have a similar and extremely noisy impact on prices. Most of the processed information appears to come from supply and demand itself, rather than from external news. The ideas reviewed here are relevant to market microstructure regulation, agent-based models, cost-optimal execution strategies, and understanding market ecologies.
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A consistency criterion for price impact functions in limit order markets is proposed that prohibits chain arbitrage exploitation. Both the bid-ask spread and the feedback of sequential market orders of the same kind onto both sides of the order book are essential to ensure consistency at the smallest time scale. All the stocks investigated in Paris Stock Exchange have consistent price impact functions.
We propose a dynamical theory of market liquidity that predicts that the average supply/demand profile is V-shaped and {it vanishes} around the current price. This result is generic, and only relies on mild assumptions about the order flow and on the fact that prices are (to a first approximation) diffusive. This naturally accounts for two striking stylized facts: first, large metaorders have to be fragmented in order to be digested by the liquidity funnel, leading to long-memory in the sign of the order flow. Second, the anomalously small local liquidity induces a breakdown of linear response and a diverging impact of small orders, explaining the square-root impact law, for which we provide additional empirical support. Finally, we test our arguments quantitatively using a numerical model of order flow based on the same minimal ingredients.
We introduce a minimal Agent Based Model with two classes of agents, fundamentalists (stabilizing) and chartists (destabilizing) and we focus on the essential features which can generate the stylized facts. This leads to a detailed understanding of the origin of fat tails and volatility clustering and we propose a mechanism for the self-organization of the market dynamics in the quasi-critical state. The stylized facts are shown to correspond to finite size effects which, however, can be active at different time scales. This implies that universality cannot be expected in describing these properties in terms of effective critical exponents. The introduction of a threshold in the agents action (small price fluctuations lead to no-action) triggers the self-organization towards the quasi-critical state. Non-stationarity in the number of active agents and in their action plays a fundamental role. The model can be easily generalized to more realistic variants in a systematic way.
We introduce a minimal Agent Based Model for financial markets to understand the nature and Self-Organization of the Stylized Facts. The model is minimal in the sense that we try to identify the essential ingredients to reproduce the main most important deviations of price time series from a Random Walk behavior. We focus on four essential ingredients: fundamentalist agents which tend to stabilize the market; chartist agents which induce destabilization; analysis of price behavior for the two strategies; herding behavior which governs the possibility of changing strategy. Bubbles and crashes correspond to situations dominated by chartists, while fundamentalists provide a long time stability (on average). The Stylized Facts are shown to correspond to an intermittent behavior which occurs only for a finite value of the number of agents N. Therefore they correspond to finite size effect which, however, can occur at different time scales. We propose a new mechanism for the Self-Organization of this state which is linked to the existence of a threshold for the agents to be active or not active. The feedback between price fluctuations and number of active agents represent a crucial element for this state of Self-Organized-Intermittency. The model can be easily generalized to consider more realistic variants.
We present a detailed study of the statistical properties of an Agent Based Model and of its generalization to the multiplicative dynamics. The aim of the model is to consider the minimal elements for the understanding of the origin of the Stylized Facts and their Self-Organization. The key elements are fundamentalist agents, chartist agents, herding dynamics and price behavior. The first two elements correspond to the competition between stability and instability tendencies in the market. The herding behavior governs the possibility of the agents to change strategy and it is a crucial element of this class of models. The linear approximation permits a simple interpretation of the model dynamics and, for many properties, it is possible to derive analytical results. The generalized non linear dynamics results to be extremely more sensible to the parameter space and much more difficult to analyze and control. The main results for the nature and Self-Organization of the Stylized Facts are, however, very similar in the two cases. The main peculiarity of the non linear dynamics is an enhancement of the fluctuations and a more marked evidence of the Stylized Facts. We will also discuss some modifications of the model to introduce more realistic elements with respect to the real markets.
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