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An important issue in the study of cities is defining a metropolitan area, as different definitions affect the statistical distribution of urban activity. A commonly employed method of defining a metropolitan area is the Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA), based on rules attempting to capture the notion of city as a functional economic region, and is constructed using experience. The MSA is time-consuming and is typically constructed only for a subset (few hundreds) of the most highly populated cities. Here, we introduce a new method to designate metropolitan areas, denoted the City Clustering Algorithm (CCA). The CCA is based on spatial distributions of the population at a fine geographic scale, defining a city beyond the scope of its administrative boundaries. We use the CCA to examine Gibrats law of proportional growth, postulating that the mean and standard deviation of the growth rate of cities are constant, independent of city size. We find that the mean growth rate of a cluster utilizing the CCA exhibits deviations from Gibrats law, and that the standard deviation decreases as a power-law with respect to the city size. The CCA allows for the study of the underlying process leading to these deviations, shown to arise from the existence of long-range spatial correlations in the population growth. These results have socio-political implications, such as those pertaining to the location of new economic development in cities of varied size.
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We introduce a basic model for human mobility that accounts for the different dynamics arising from individuals embarking on short trips (and returning to their home locations) and individuals relocating to a new home. The differences between the two modes of motion comes to light on contrasting two recent studies, one tracking the geographical location of dollar bills cite{brockmann}, the other that of mobile cell phones cite{gonzalez}. Trips introduce two characteristic time scales; the time between trips, $theta$, and the duration of each trip, $tau$, and relocations introduces a third time scale, $T$, for the time between relocations. In practice, $Tsim{rm years}$, $thetasim{rm months}$, and $tausim{rm days}$, so the three time scales are widely separated. Traditionally, studies incorporating human motion assume only a single mode, using a generic rate to account for all types of motion.
Phenomena as diverse as breeding bird populations, the size of U.S. firms, money invested in mutual funds, the GDP of individual countries and the scientific output of universities all show unusual but remarkably similar growth fluctuations. The fluctuations display characteristic features, including double exponential scaling in the body of the distribution and power law scaling of the standard deviation as a function of size. To explain this we propose a remarkably simple additive replication model: At each step each individual is replaced by a new number of individuals drawn from the same replication distribution. If the replication distribution is sufficiently heavy tailed then the growth fluctuations are Levy distributed. We analyze the data from bird populations, firms, and mutual funds and show that our predictions match the data well, in several respects: Our theory results in a much better collapse of the individual distributions onto a single curve and also correctly predicts the scaling of the standard deviation with size. To illustrate how this can emerge from a collective microscopic dynamics we propose a model based on stochastic influence dynamics over a scale-free contact network and show that it produces results similar to those observed. We also extend the model to deal with correlations between individual elements. Our main conclusion is that the universality of growth fluctuations is driven by the additivity of growth processes and the action of the generalized central limit theorem.
The study of community structure has been a hot topic of research over the last years. But, while successfully applied in several areas, the concept lacks of a general and precise notion. Facts like the hierarchical structure and heterogeneity of complex networks make it difficult to unify the idea of community and its evaluation. The global functional known as modularity is probably the most used technique in this area. Nevertheless, its limits have been deeply studied. Local techniques as the ones by Lancichinetti et al. and Palla et al. arose as an answer to the resolution limit and degeneracies that modularity has. Here we start from the algorithm by Lancichinetti et al. and propose a unique growth process for a fitness function that, while being local, finds a community partition that covers the whole network, updating the scale parameter dynamically. We test the quality of our results by using a set of benchmarks of heterogeneous graphs. We discuss alternative measures for evaluating the community structure and, in the light of them, infer possible explanations for the better performance of local methods compared to global ones in these cases.
To evaluate the effectiveness of the containment on the epidemic spreading of the new Coronavirus disease 2019, we carry on an analysis of the time evolution of the infection in a selected number of different Countries, by considering well-known macroscopic growth laws, the Gompertz law, and the logistic law. We also propose here a generalization of Gompertz law. Our data analysis permits an evaluation of the maximum number of infected individuals. The daily data must be compared with the obtained fits, to verify if the spreading is under control. From our analysis it appears that the spreading reached saturation in China, due to the strong containment policy of the national government. In Singapore a large growth rate, recently observed, suggests the start of a new strong spreading. For South Korea and Italy, instead, the next data on new infections will be crucial to understand if the saturation will be reached for lower or higher numbers of infected individuals.
We discuss microscopic mechanisms of complex network growth, with the special emphasis of how these mechanisms can be evaluated from the measurements on real networks. As an example we consider the network of citations to scientific papers. Contrary to common belief that its growth is determined by the linear preferential attachment, our microscopic measurements show that it is driven by the nonlinear autocatalytic growth. This invalidates the scale-free hypothesis for the citation network. The nonlinearity is responsible for a dramatic dynamical phase transition: while the citation lifetime of majority of papers is 6-10 years, the highly-cited papers have practically infinite lifetime.
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