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Register a new userSolar Grand Minima and random fluctuations in dynamo parameters
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We consider to what extent the long-term dynamics of cyclic solar activity in the form of Grand Minima can be associated with random fluctuations of the parameters governing the solar dynamo. We consider fluctuations of the alpha-coefficient in the conventional Parker migratory dynamo, and also in slightly more sophisticated dynamo models, and demonstrate that they can mimic the gross features of the phenomenon of the occurrence of Grand Minima over a suitable parameter range. The temporal distribution of these Grand Minima appears chaotic, with a more or less exponential waiting time distribution, typical of Poisson processes. In contrast however, the available reconstruction of Grand Minima statistics based on cosmogenic isotope data demonstrates substantial deviations from this exponential law. We were unable to reproduce the non-Poissonic tail of the waiting time distribution either in the framework of a simple alpha-quenched Parker model, or in its straightforward generalization, nor in simple models with feedback on the differential rotation. We suggest that the disagreement may only be apparent and is plausibly related to the limited observational data, and that the observations and results of numerical modeling can be consistent and represent physically similar dynamo regimes.
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Extreme solar activity fluctuations and the occurrence of solar grand minima and maxima episodes, are well established, observed features of the solar cycle. Nevertheless, such extreme activity fluctuations and the dynamics of the solar cycle during Maunder minima-like episodes remain ill-understood. We explore the origin of such extreme solar activity fluctuations and the role of dual poloidal field sources, namely the Babcock-Leighton mechanism and the mean-field alpha effect in the dynamics of the solar cycle. We mainly concentrate on entry and recovery from grand minima episodes such as the Maunder minimum and the dynamics of the solar cycle. We use a kinematic solar dynamo model with a novel set-up in which stochastic perturbations force two distinct poloidal field alpha effects. We explore different regimes of operation of these poloidal sources with distinct operating thresholds, to identify the importance of each. The perturbations are implemented independently in both hemispheres which allows one to study the level of hemispheric coupling and hemispheric asymmetry in the emergence of sunspots. From the simulations performed we identify a few different ways in which the dynamo can enter a grand minima episode. While fluctuations in any of the $alpha$ effects can trigger intermittency we find that the mean-field alpha effect is crucial for the recovery of the solar cycle from a grand minima episode which a Babcock-Leighton source alone, fails to achieve. Our simulations also demonstrate other cycle dynamics. We conclude that stochastic fluctuations in two interacting poloidal field sources working with distinct operating thresholds is a viable candidate for triggering episodes of extreme solar activity and that the mean-field alpha effect capable of working on weak, sub-equipartition fields is critical to the recovery of the solar cycle following an extended solar minimum.
The Sun provides the energy necessary to sustain our existence. While the Sun provides for us, it is also capable of taking away. The weather and climatic scales of solar evolution and the Sun-Earth connection are not well understood. There has been tremendous progress in the century since the discovery of solar magnetism - magnetism that ultimately drives the electromagnetic, particulate and eruptive forcing of our planetary system. There is contemporary evidence of a decrease in solar magnetism, perhaps even indicators of a significant downward trend, over recent decades. Are we entering a minimum in solar activity that is deeper and longer than a typical solar minimum, a grand minimum? How could we tell if we are? What is a grand minimum and how does the Sun recover? These are very pertinent questions for modern civilization. In this paper we present a hypothetical demonstration of entry and exit from grand minimum conditions based on a recent analysis of solar features over the past 20 years and their possible connection to the origins of the 11(-ish) year solar activity cycle.
We study the magnetic flux carried by pores located outside active regions with sunspots and investigate their possible contribution to the reversal of the global magnetic field of the Sun. We find that they contain a total flux of comparable amplitude to the total magnetic flux contained in polar caps. The pores located at distances of 40--100~Mm from the closest active region have systematically the correct sign to contribute to the polar cap reversal. These pores can predominantly be found in bipolar magnetic regions. We propose that during grand minima of solar activity, such a systematic polarity trend, akin to a weak magnetic (Babcock-Leighton-like) source term could still be operating but was missed by the contemporary observers due to the limited resolving power of their telescopes.
Using a nonlinear mean-field solar dynamo model, we study relationships between the amplitude of the `extended mode of migrating zonal flows (`torsional oscillations) and magnetic cycles, and investigate whether properties the torsional oscillations in subsurface layers and in the deep convection zone can provide information about the future solar cycles. We consider two types of dynamo models: models with regular variations of the alpha-effect, and models with stochastic fluctuations, simulating `long- and short-memory types of magnetic activity variations. It is found that torsional oscillation parameters, such the zonal acceleration, show a considerable correlation with the magnitude of the subsequent cycles with a time lag of 11-20 yr. The sign of the correlation and the time-lag parameters can depend on the depth and latitude of the torsional oscillations as well as on the properties of long-term (`centennial) variations of the dynamo cycles. The strongest correlations are found for the zonal acceleration at high latitudes at the base of the convection zone. The model results demonstrate that helioseismic observations of the torsional oscillations can be useful for advanced prediction of the solar cycles, one-two sunspot cycles ahead.
We aim to investigate the nature and occurrence characteristics of grand solar minimum and maximum periods, which are observed in the solar proxy records such as 10Be and 14C, using a fully non-linear Babcock-Leighton type flux-transport dynamo including momentum and entropy equations. The differential rotation and meridional circulation are generated from the effect of turbulent Reynolds stress and are subjected to back-reaction from the magnetic field. To generate grand minimum and maximum-like periods in our simulations, we used random fluctuations in the angular momentum transport process, namely the Lambda-mechanism, and in the Babcock-Leighton mechanism. To characterise the nature and occurrences of the identified grand minima and maxima in our simulations, we used the waiting time distribution analyses, which reflects whether the underlying distribution arises from a random or a memory-bearing process. The results show that, in majority of the cases, the distributions of grand minima and maxima reveal that the nature of these events originates from memoryless processes. We also found that in our simulations the meridional circulation speed tends to be smaller during grand maximum, while it is faster during grand minimum periods. The radial differential rotation tend to be larger during grand maxima, while it is smaller during grand minima. The latitudinal differential rotation on the other hand is found to be larger during grand minima.
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