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Register a new userFractal and Multifractal Time Series
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Jan W. Kantelhardt
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Data series generated by complex systems exhibit fluctuations on many time scales and/or broad distributions of the values. In both equilibrium and non-equilibrium situations, the natural fluctuations are often found to follow a scaling relation over several orders of magnitude, allowing for a characterisation of the data and the generating complex system by fractal (or multifractal) scaling exponents. In addition, fractal and multifractal approaches can be used for modelling time series and deriving predictions regarding extreme events. This review article describes and exemplifies several methods originating from Statistical Physics and Applied Mathematics, which have been used for fractal and multifractal time series analysis.
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We introduce a generalization of Higuchis estimator of the fractal dimension as a new way to characterize the multifractal spectrum of univariate time series. The resulting multifractal Higuchi dimension analysis (MF-HDA) method considers the order-$q$ moments of the partition function provided by the length of the time series graph at different levels of subsampling. The results obtained for different types of stochastic processes as well as real-world examples of word length series from fictional texts demonstrate that MF-HDA provides a reliable estimate of the multifractal spectrum already for moderate time series lengths. Practical advantages as well as disadvantages of the new approach as compared to other state-of-the-art methods of multifractal analysis are discussed, highlighting the particular potentials of MF-HDA to distinguish mono- from multi-fractal dynamics based on relatively short time series.
We develop a method for the multifractal characterization of nonstationary time series, which is based on a generalization of the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). We relate our multifractal DFA method to the standard partition function-based multifractal formalism, and prove that both approaches are equivalent for stationary signals with compact support. By analyzing several examples we show that the new method can reliably determine the multifractal scaling behavior of time series. By comparing the multifractal DFA results for original series to those for shuffled series we can distinguish multifractality due to long-range correlations from multifractality due to a broad probability density function. We also compare our results with the wavelet transform modulus maxima (WTMM) method, and show that the results are equivalent.
The performance of the multifractal detrended analysis on short time series is evaluated for synthetic samples of several mono- and multifractal models. The reconstruction of the generalized Hurst exponents is used to determine the range of applicability of the method and the precision of its results as a function of the decreasing length of the series. As an application the series of the daily exchange rate between the U.S. dollar and the euro is studied.
The process of collecting and organizing sets of observations represents a common theme throughout the history of science. However, despite the ubiquity of scientists measuring, recording, and analyzing the dynamics of different processes, an extensive organization of scientific time-series data and analysis methods has never been performed. Addressing this, annotated collections of over 35 000 real-world and model-generated time series and over 9000 time-series analysis algorithms are analyzed in this work. We introduce reduced representations of both time series, in terms of their properties measured by diverse scientific methods, and of time-series analysis methods, in terms of their behaviour on empirical time series, and use them to organize these interdisciplinary resources. This new approach to comparing across diverse scientific data and methods allows us to organize time-series datasets automatically according to their properties, retrieve alternatives to particular analysis methods developed in other scientific disciplines, and automate the selection of useful methods for time-series classification and regression tasks. The broad scientific utility of these tools is demonstrated on datasets of electroencephalograms, self-affine time series, heart beat intervals, speech signals, and others, in each case contributing novel analysis techniques to the existing literature. Highly comparative techniques that compare across an interdisciplinary literature can thus be used to guide more focused research in time-series analysis for applications across the scientific disciplines.
Approaches for mapping time series to networks have become essential tools for dealing with the increasing challenges of characterizing data from complex systems. Among the different algorithms, the recently proposed ordinal networks stand out due to its simplicity and computational efficiency. However, applications of ordinal networks have been mainly focused on time series arising from nonlinear dynamical systems, while basic properties of ordinal networks related to simple stochastic processes remain poorly understood. Here, we investigate several properties of ordinal networks emerging from random time series, noisy periodic signals, fractional Brownian motion, and earthquake magnitude series. For ordinal networks of random series, we present an approach for building the exact form of the adjacency matrix, which in turn is useful for detecting non-random behavior in time series and the existence of missing transitions among ordinal patterns. We find that the average value of a local entropy, estimated from transition probabilities among neighboring nodes of ordinal networks, is more robust against noise addition than the standard permutation entropy. We show that ordinal networks can be used for estimating the Hurst exponent of time series with accuracy comparable with state-of-the-art methods. Finally, we argue that ordinal networks can detect sudden changes in Earth seismic activity caused by large earthquakes.
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