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Using transfer entropy, we observed the strength and direction of information flow between stock indices. We uncovered that the biggest source of information flow is America. In contrast, the Asia/Pacific region the biggest is receives the most information. According to the minimum spanning tree, the GSPC is located at the focal point of the information source for world stock markets.
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We investigate the strength and the direction of information transfer in the U.S. stock market between the composite stock price index of stock market and prices of individual stocks using the transfer entropy. Through the directionality of the information transfer, we find that individual stocks are influenced by the index of the market.
Transfer entropy measures the strength and direction of information flow between different time series. We study the information flow networks of the Chinese stock market and identify important sectors and information flow paths. This paper uses the daily closing price data of the 28 level-1 sectors from Shenyin & Wanguo Securities ranging from 2000 to 2017 to study the information transmission between different sectors. We construct information flow networks with the sectors as the nodes and the transfer entropy between them as the corresponding edges. Then we adopt the maximum spanning arborescence (MSA) to extracting important information flows and the hierarchical structure of the networks. We find that, during the whole sample period, the textit{composite} sector is an information source of the whole stock market, while the textit{non-bank financial} sector is the information sink. We also find that the textit{non-bank finance}, textit{bank}, textit{computer}, textit{media}, textit{real estate}, textit{medical biology} and textit{non-ferrous metals} sectors appear as high-degree root nodes in the outgoing and incoming information flow MSAs. Especially, the textit{non-bank finance} and textit{bank} sectors have significantly high degrees after 2008 in the outgoing information flow networks. We uncover how stock market turmoils affect the structure of the MSAs. Finally, we reveal the specificity of information source and sink sectors and make a conclusion that the root node sector as the information sink of the incoming information flow networks. Overall, our analyses show that the structure of information flow networks changes with time and the market exhibits a sector rotation phenomenon. Our work has important implications for market participants and policy makers in managing market risks and controlling the contagion of risks.
We propose a modified time lag random matrix theory in order to study time lag cross-correlations in multiple time series. We apply the method to 48 world indices, one for each of 48 different countries. We find long-range power-law cross-correlations in the absolute values of returns that quantify risk, and find that they decay much more slowly than cross-correlations between the returns. The magnitude of the cross-correlations constitute bad news for international investment managers who may believe that risk is reduced by diversifying across countries. We find that when a market shock is transmitted around the world, the risk decays very slowly. We explain these time lag cross-correlations by introducing a global factor model (GFM) in which all index returns fluctuate in response to a single global factor. For each pair of individual time series of returns, the cross-correlations between returns (or magnitudes) can be modeled with the auto-correlations of the global factor returns (or magnitudes). We estimate the global factor using principal component analysis, which minimizes the variance of the residuals after removing the global trend. Using random matrix theory, a significant fraction of the world index cross-correlations can be explained by the global factor, which supports the utility of the GFM. We demonstrate applications of the GFM in forecasting risks at the world level, and in finding uncorrelated individual indices. We find 10 indices are practically uncorrelated with the global factor and with the remainder of the world indices, which is relevant information for world managers in reducing their portfolio risk. Finally, we argue that this general method can be applied to a wide range of phenomena in which time series are measured, ranging from seismology and physiology to atmospheric geophysics.
This study investigates empirically whether the degree of stock market efficiency is related to the prediction power of future price change using the indices of twenty seven stock markets. Efficiency refers to weak-form efficient market hypothesis (EMH) in terms of the information of past price changes. The prediction power corresponds to the hit-rate, which is the rate of the consistency between the direction of actual price change and that of predicted one, calculated by the nearest neighbor prediction method (NN method) using the out-of-sample. In this manuscript, the Hurst exponent and the approximate entropy (ApEn) are used as the quantitative measurements of the degree of efficiency. The relationship between the Hurst exponent, reflecting the various time correlation property, and the ApEn value, reflecting the randomness in the time series, shows negative correlation. However, the average prediction power on the direction of future price change has the strongly positive correlation with the Hurst exponent, and the negative correlation with the ApEn. Therefore, the market index with less market efficiency has higher prediction power for future price change than one with higher market efficiency when we analyze the market using the past price change pattern. Furthermore, we show that the Hurst exponent, a measurement of the long-term memory property, provides more significant information in terms of prediction of future price changes than the ApEn and the NN method.
Information diffusion within financial markets plays a crucial role in the process of price formation and the propagation of sentiment and risk. We perform a comparative analysis of information transfer between industry sectors of the Chinese and the USA stock markets, using daily sector indices for the period from 2000 to 2017. The information flow from one sector to another is measured by the transfer entropy of the daily returns of the two sector indices. We find that the most active sector in information exchange (i.e., the largest total information inflow and outflow) is the {textit{non-bank financial}} sector in the Chinese market and the {textit{technology}} sector in the USA market. This is consistent with the role of the non-bank sector in corporate financing in China and the impact of technological innovation in the USA. In each market, the most active sector is also the largest information sink that has the largest information inflow (i.e., inflow minus outflow). In contrast, we identify that the main information source is the {textit{bank}} sector in the Chinese market and the {textit{energy}} sector in the USA market. In the case of China, this is due to the importance of net bank lending as a signal of corporate activity and the role of energy pricing in affecting corporate profitability. There are sectors such as the {textit{real estate}} sector that could be an information sink in one market but an information source in the other, showing the complex behavior of different markets. Overall, these findings show that stock markets are more synchronized, or ordered, during periods of turmoil than during periods of stability.
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