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Register a new userLISA detections of massive black hole inspirals: parameter extraction errors due to inaccurate template waveforms
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The planned Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) is expected to detect the inspiral and merger of massive black hole binaries (MBHBs) at z <~ 5 with signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs) of hundreds to thousands. Because of these high SNRs, and because these SNRs accrete over periods of weeks to months, it should be possible to extract the physical parameters of these systems with high accuracy; for instance, for a ~ 10^6 Msun MBHBs at z = 1 it should be possible to determine the two masses to ~ 0.1% and the sky location to ~ 1 degree. However, those are just the errors due to noise: there will be additional theoretical errors due to inaccuracies in our best model waveforms, which are still only approximate. The goal of this paper is to estimate the typical magnitude of these theoretical errors. We develop mathematical tools for this purpose, and apply them to a somewhat simplified version of the MBHB problem, in which we consider just the inspiral part of the waveform and neglect spin-induced precession, eccentricity, and PN amplitude corrections. For this simplified version, we estimate that theoretical uncertainties in sky position will typically be ~ 1 degree, i.e., comparable to the statistical uncertainty. For the mass and spin parameters, our results suggest that while theoretical errors will be rather small absolutely, they could still dominate over statistical errors (by roughly an order of magnitude) for the strongest sources. The tools developed here should be useful for estimating the magnitude of theoretical errors in many other problems in gravitational-wave astronomy.
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The LISA Parameter Estimation (LISAPE) Taskforce was formed in September 2007 to provide the LISA Project with vetted codes, source distribution models, and results related to parameter estimation. The Taskforces goal is to be able to quickly calculate the impact of any mission design changes on LISAs science capabilities, based on reasonable estimates of the distribution of astrophysical sources in the universe. This paper describes our Taskforces work on massive black-hole binaries (MBHBs). Given present uncertainties in the formation history of MBHBs, we adopt four different population models, based on (i) whether the initial black-hole seeds are small or large, and (ii) whether accretion is efficient or inefficient at spinning up the holes. We compare four largely independent codes for calculating LISAs parameter-estimation capabilities. All codes are based on the Fisher-matrix approximation, but in the past they used somewhat different signal models, source parametrizations and noise curves. We show that once these differences are removed, the four codes give results in extremely close agreement with each other. Using a code that includes both spin precession and higher harmonics in the gravitational-wave signal, we carry out Monte Carlo simulations and determine the number of events that can be detected and accurately localized in our four population models.
Recent progress in numerical relativity has enabled us to model the non-perturbative merger phase of the binary black-hole coalescence problem. Based on these results, we propose a phenomenological family of waveforms which can model the inspiral, merger, and ring-down stages of black hole coalescence. We also construct a template bank using this family of waveforms and discuss its implementation in the search for signatures of gravitational waves produced by black-hole coalescences in the data of ground-based interferometers. This template bank might enable us to extend the present inspiral searches to higher-mass binary black-hole systems, i.e., systems with total mass greater than about 80 solar masses, thereby increasing the reach of the current generation of ground-based detectors.
The Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) is slated for launch in the early 2030s. A main target of the mission is massive black hole binaries that have an expected detection rate of $sim20$ yr$^{-1}$. We present a parameter estimation analysis for a variety of massive black hole binaries. This analysis is performed with a graphics processing unit (GPU) implementation comprising the phenomhm waveform with higher-order harmonic modes and aligned spins; a fast frequency-domain LISA detector response function; and a GPU-native likelihood computation. The computational performance achieved with the GPU is shown to be 500 times greater than with a similar CPU implementation, which allows us to analyze full noise-infused injections at a realistic Fourier bin width for the LISA mission in a tractable and efficient amount of time. With these fast likelihood computations, we study the effect of adding aligned spins to an analysis with higher-order modes by testing different configurations of spins in the injection, as well as the effect of varied and fixed spins during sampling. Within these tests, we examine three different binaries with varying mass ratios, redshifts, sky locations, and detector-frame total masses ranging over three orders of magnitude. We discuss varied correlations between the total masses and mass ratios; unique spin posteriors for the larger mass binaries; and the constraints on parameters when fixing spins during sampling, allowing us to compare to previous analyses that did not include aligned spins.
Gravitational waves (GW) from coalescing stellar-mass black hole binaries (BBH) are expected to be detected by the Advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory and Advanced Virgo. Detection searches operate by matched-filtering the detector data using a bank of waveform templates. Traditionally, template banks for BBH are constructed from intermediary analytical waveform models which are calibrated against numerical relativity simulations and which can be aluated for any choice of BBH parameters. This paper explores an alternative to the traditional approach, namely the construction of template banks directly from numerical BBH simulations. Using non-spinning BBH systems as an example, we demonstrate which regions of the mass-parameter plane can be covered with existing numerical BBH waveforms. We estimate the required number and required length of BBH simulations to cover the entire non-spinning BBH parameter plane up to mass-ratio 10, thus illustrating that our approach can be used to guide parameter placement of future numerical simulations. We derive error bounds which are independent of analytical waveform models; therefore, our formalism can be used to independently test the accuracy of such waveform models. The resulting template banks are suitable for advanced LIGO searches.
We study parameter estimation of supermassive black hole binary systems in the final stage of inspiral using the full post-Newtonian gravitational waveforms. We restrict our analysis to systems in circular orbit with negligible spins, in the mass range $10^8Ms-10^5Ms$, and compare the results with those arising from the commonly used restricted post-Newtonian approximation. The conclusions of this work are particularly important with regard to the astrophysical reach of future LISA measurements. Our analysis clearly shows that modeling the inspiral with the full post-Newtonian waveform, not only extends the reach to higher mass systems, but also improves in general the parameter estimation. In particular, there are remarkable improvements in angular resolution and distance measurement for systems with a total mass higher than $5times10^6Ms$, as well as a large improvement in the mass determination.
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