Let $xi$ be a non-constant real-valued random variable with finite support, and let $M_{n}(xi)$ denote an $ntimes n$ random matrix with entries that are independent copies of $xi$. For $xi$ which is not uniform on its support, we show that begin{align*} mathbb{P}[M_{n}(xi)text{ is singular}] &= mathbb{P}[text{zero row or column}] + (1+o_n(1))mathbb{P}[text{two equal (up to sign) rows or columns}], end{align*} thereby confirming a folklore conjecture. As special cases, we obtain: (1) For $xi = text{Bernoulli}(p)$ with fixed $p in (0,1/2)$, [mathbb{P}[M_{n}(xi)text{ is singular}] = 2n(1-p)^{n} + (1+o_n(1))n(n-1)(p^2 + (1-p)^2)^{n},] which determines the singularity probability to two asymptotic terms. Previously, no result of such precision was available in the study of the singularity of random matrices. (2) For $xi = text{Bernoulli}(p)$ with fixed $p in (1/2,1)$, [mathbb{P}[M_{n}(xi)text{ is singular}] = (1+o_n(1))n(n-1)(p^2 + (1-p)^2)^{n}.] Previously, only the much weaker upper bound of $(sqrt{p} + o_n(1))^{n}$ was known due to the work of Bourgain-Vu-Wood. For $xi$ which is uniform on its support: (1) We show that begin{align*} mathbb{P}[M_{n}(xi)text{ is singular}] &= (1+o_n(1))^{n}mathbb{P}[text{two rows or columns are equal}]. end{align*} (2) Perhaps more importantly, we provide a sharp analysis of the contribution of the `compressible part of the unit sphere to the lower tail of the smallest singular value of $M_{n}(xi)$.
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