We study the cosmological transition of 5D warped compactifications, from the high-temperature black-brane phase to the low-temperature Randall-Sundrum I phase. The transition proceeds via percolation of bubbles of IR-brane nucleating from the black-brane horizon. The violent bubble dynamics can be a powerful source of observable stochastic gravitational waves. While bubble nucleation is non-perturbative in 5D gravity, it is amenable to semiclassical treatment in terms of a bounce configuration interpolating between the two phases. We demonstrate how such a bounce configuration can be smooth enough to maintain 5D effective field theory control, and how a simple ansatz for it places a rigorous lower-bound on the transition rate in the thin-wall regime, and gives plausible estimates more generally. When applied to the Hierarchy Problem, the minimal Goldberger-Wise stabilization of the warped throat leads to a slow transition with significant supercooling. We demonstrate that a simple generalization of the Goldberger-Wise potential modifies the IR-brane dynamics so that the transition completes more promptly. Supercooling determines the dilution of any (dark) matter abundances generated before the transition, potentially at odds with data, while the prompter transition resolves such tensions. We discuss the impact of the different possibilities on the strength of the gravitational wave signals. Via AdS/CFT duality the warped transition gives a theoretically tractable holographic description of the 4D Composite Higgs (de)confinement transition. Our generalization of the Goldberger-Wise mechanism is dual to, and concretely models, our earlier proposal in which the composite dynamics is governed by separate UV and IR RG fixed points. The smooth 5D bounce configuration we introduce complements the 4D dilaton/radion dominance derivation presented in our earlier work.
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