We develop an analytic model to calculate the rate at which galaxy disks are heated by dark matter substructures orbiting in their halos. The model takes into account the internal structure, mass function and accretion rate of satellites expected in the LambdaCDM cosmology, as well as the growth of the disk by accretion and mergers, but it ignores resonant heating of the disk and the dynamical effects of spiral arms and bars. We calibrate this model against N-body simulations and demonstrate that it is able to reproduce the N-body heating rates to within a factor of 3 in the majority of cases. Our model gives the distribution of disk scale-heights for galaxies of different luminosities. For L* spiral galaxies, it predicts a median disk thickness of only 5% of the radial scale-length if substructure is the only source of heating. The median disk thickness increases to nearly 20% of the radial scale-length when heating due to gravitational scattering of stars by molecular clouds is also included. The latter value is close to the thickness estimated observationally for the disk of the Milky Way galaxy. The distribution of disk thickness predicted by the model is also consistent with a recent observational determination for sub-L* galaxies by Bizyaev & Mitronova. Thus, the observed thickness of the stellar disks of spiral galaxies seems to be entirely compatible with the abundance of substructure in dark matter halos predicted by the standard Lambda-dominated cold dark matter model of structure formation. In an Omega_0=1 universe, our best model of galaxy formation produces similar scale-heights, a consequence of the fact that similar amounts of substructure are accreted by halos during the lifetime of the disk in Omega_0=1 and Omega_0=0.3, Lambda_0=0.7 cold dark matter cosmologies.
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