The increasing uncertainty level caused by growing renewable energy sources (RES) and aging transmission networks poses a great challenge in the assessment of total transfer capability (TTC) and available transfer capability (ATC). In this paper, a novel data-driven sparse polynomial chaos expansion (DDSPCE) method is proposed for estimating the probabilistic characteristics (e.g., mean, variance, probability distribution) of probabilistic TTC (PTTC). Specifically, the proposed method, requiring no pre-assumed probabilistic distributions of random inputs, exploits data sets directly in estimating the PTTC. Besides, a sparse scheme is integrated to improve the computational efficiency. Numerical studies on the modified IEEE 118-bus system demonstrate that the proposed DDSPCE method can achieve accurate estimation for the probabilistic characteristics of PTTC with a high efficiency. Moreover, numerical results reveal the great significance of incorporating discrete random inputs in PTTC and ATC assessment, which nevertheless was not given sufficient attention.
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