Estimation of Distribution Algorithms (EDAs) are one branch of Evolutionary Algorithms (EAs) in the broad sense that they evolve a probabilistic model instead of a population. Many existing algorithms fall into this category. Analogous to genetic drift in EAs, EDAs also encounter the phenomenon that updates of the probabilistic model not justified by the fitness move the sampling frequencies to the boundary values. This can result in a considerable performance loss. This paper proves the first sharp estimates of the boundary hitting time of the sampling frequency of a neutral bit for several univariate EDAs. For the UMDA that selects $mu$ best individuals from $lambda$ offspring each generation, we prove that the expected first iteration when the frequency of the neutral bit leaves the middle range $[tfrac 14, tfrac 34]$ and the expected first time it is absorbed in 0 or 1 are both $Theta(mu)$. The corresponding hitting times are $Theta(K^2)$ for the cGA with hypothetical population size $K$. This paper further proves that for PBIL with parameters $mu$, $lambda$, and $rho$, in an expected number of $Theta(mu/rho^2)$ iterations the sampling frequency of a neutral bit leaves the interval $[Theta(rho/mu),1-Theta(rho/mu)]$ and then always the same value is sampled for this bit, that is, the frequency approaches the corresponding boundary value with maximum speed. For the lower bounds implicit in these statements, we also show exponential tail bounds. If a bit is not neutral, but neutral or has a preference for ones, then the lower bounds on the times to reach a low frequency value still hold. An analogous statement holds for bits that are neutral or prefer the value zero.
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