We prove tight upper bounds on the logarithmic derivative of the independence and matching polynomials of d-regular graphs. For independent sets, this theorem is a strengthening of the results of Kahn, Galvin and Tetali, and Zhao showing that a union of copies of $K_{d,d}$ maximizes the number of independent sets and the independence polynomial of a d-regular graph. For matchings, this shows that the matching polynomial and the total number of matchings of a d-regular graph are maximized by a union of copies of $K_{d,d}$. Using this we prove the asymptotic upper matching conjecture of Friedland, Krop, Lundow, and Markstrom. In probabilistic language, our main theorems state that for all d-regular graphs and all $lambda$, the occupancy fraction of the hard-core model and the edge occupancy fraction of the monomer-dimer model with fugacity $lambda$ are maximized by $K_{d,d}$. Our method involves constrained optimization problems over distributions of random variables and applies to all d-regular graphs directly, without a reduction to the bipartite case.
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