We give a sequential model for noninterference security including probability (but not demonic choice), thus supporting reasoning about the likelihood that high-security values might be revealed by observations of low-security activity. Our novel methodological contribution is the definition of a refinement order and its use to compare security measures between specifications and (their supposed) implementations. This contrasts with the more common practice of evaluating the security of individual programs in isolation. The appropriateness of our model and order is supported by our showing that our refinement order is the greatest compositional relation --the compositional closure-- with respect to our semantics and an elementary order based on Bayes Risk --- a security measure already in widespread use. We also relate refinement to other measures such as Shannon Entropy. By applying the approach to a non-trivial example, the anonymous-majority Three-Judges protocol, we demonstrate by example that correctness arguments can be simplified by the sort of layered developments --through levels of increasing detail-- that are allowed and encouraged by compositional semantics.
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