We use the very large Millennium Simulation of the concordance $Lambda$CDM cosmogony to calibrate the bias and error distribution of Timing Argument estimators of the masses of the Local Group and of the Milky Way. From a large number of isolated spiral-spiral pairs similar to the Milky Way/Andromeda system, we find the interquartile range of the ratio of timing mass to true mass to be a factor of 1.8, while the 5% and 95% points of the distribution of this ratio are separated by a factor of 5.7. Here we define true mass as the sum of the ``virial masses $M_{200}$ of the two dominant galaxies. For current best values of the distance and approach velocity of Andromeda this leads to a median likelihood estimate of the true mass of the Local Group of $5.27times 10^{12}msun$, or $log M_{LG}/M_odot = 12.72$, with an interquartile range of $[12.58, 12.83]$ and a 5% to 95% range of $[12.26, 13.01]$. Thus a 95% lower confidence limit on the true mass of the Local Group is $1.81times 10^{12}msun$. A timing estimate of the Milky Ways mass based on the large recession velocity observed for the distant satellite Leo I works equally well, although with larger systematic uncertainties. It gives an estimated virial mass for the Milky Way of $2.43 times 10^{12}msun$ with a 95% lower confidence limit of $0.80 times 10^{12}msun$.
تحميل البحث