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This paper proposes a criterion for simultaneous GMM model and moment selection: the generalized focused information criterion (GFIC). Rather than attempting to identify the true specification, the GFIC chooses from a set of potentially mis-specified moment conditions and parameter restrictions to minimize the mean-squared error (MSE) of a user-specified target parameter. The intent of the GFIC is to formalize a situation common in applied practice. An applied researcher begins with a set of fairly weak baseline assumptions, assumed to be correct, and must decide whether to impose any of a number of stronger, more controversial suspect assumptions that yield parameter restrictions, additional moment conditions, or both. Provided that the baseline assumptions identify the model, we show how to construct an asymptotically unbiased estimator of the asymptotic MSE to select over these suspect assumptions: the GFIC. We go on to provide results for post-selection inference and model averaging that can be applied both to the GFIC and various alternative selection criteria. To illustrate how our criterion can be used in practice, we specialize the GFIC to the problem of selecting over exogeneity assumptions and lag lengths in a dynamic panel model, and show that it performs well in simulations. We conclude by applying the GFIC to a dynamic panel data model for the price elasticity of cigarette demand.
We propose the double robust Lagrange multiplier (DRLM) statistic for testing hypotheses specified on the pseudo-true value of the structural parameters in the generalized method of moments. The pseudo-true value is defined as the minimizer of the po
Structural estimation is an important methodology in empirical economics, and a large class of structural models are estimated through the generalized method of moments (GMM). Traditionally, selection of structural models has been performed based on
In this paper, a new and convenient $chi^2$ wald test based on MCMC outputs is proposed for hypothesis testing. The new statistic can be explained as MCMC version of Wald test and has several important advantages that make it very convenient in pract
The Pareto model is very popular in risk management, since simple analytical formulas can be derived for financial downside risk measures (Value-at-Risk, Expected Shortfall) or reinsurance premiums and related quantities (Large Claim Index, Return Pe
We develop monitoring procedures for cointegrating regressions, testing the null of no breaks against the alternatives that there is either a change in the slope, or a change to non-cointegration. After observing the regression for a calibration samp