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We present a model for the evolution of the galaxy ultraviolet (UV) luminosity function (LF) across cosmic time where star formation is linked to the assembly of dark matter halos under the assumption of a mass dependent, but redshift independent, efficiency. We introduce a new self-consistent treatment of the halo star formation history, which allows us to make predictions at $z>10$ (lookback time $lesssim500$ Myr), when growth is rapid. With a calibration at a single redshift to set the stellar-to-halo mass ratio, and no further degrees of freedom, our model captures the evolution of the UV LF over all available observations ($0lesssim zlesssim10$). The significant drop in luminosity density of currently detectable galaxies beyond $zsim8$ is explained by a shift of star formation toward less massive, fainter galaxies. Assuming that star formation proceeds down to atomic cooling halos, we derive a reionization optical depth $tau = 0.056^{+0.007}_{-0.010}$, fully consistent with the latest Planck measurement, implying that the universe is fully reionized at $z=7.84^{+0.65}_{-0.98}$. In addition, our model naturally produces smoothly rising star formation histories for galaxies with $Llesssim L_*$ in agreement with observations and hydrodynamical simulations. Before the epoch of reionization at $z>10$ we predict the LF to remain well-described by a Schechter function, but with an increasingly steep faint-end slope ($alphasim-3.5$ at $zsim16$). Finally, we construct forecasts for surveys with JWST~and WFIRST and predict that galaxies out to $zsim14$ will be observed. Galaxies at $z>15$ will likely be accessible to JWST and WFIRST only through the assistance of strong lensing magnification.
Ultra-faint galaxies are hosted by small dark matter halos with shallow gravitational potential wells, hence their star formation activity is more sensitive to feedback effects. The shape of the faint-end of the high-$z$ galaxy luminosity function (L
The time frame in which hydrogen reionization occurred is highly uncertain, but can be constrained by observations of Lyman-alpha (Ly$alpha$) emission from distant sources. Neutral hydrogen in the intergalactic medium (IGM) attenuates Ly$alpha$~photo
Determinations of the UV luminosity function of AGN at high redshifts are important for constraining the AGN contribution to reionization and understanding the growth of supermassive black holes. Recent inferences of the luminosity function suffer fr
If the dark matter (DM) were composed of axions, then structure formation in the Universe would be suppressed below the axion Jeans scale. Using an analytic model for the halo mass function of a mixed DM model with axions and cold dark matter, combin
We present the first predictions for the $L_{rm [CII]}$ - SFR relation and [CII] luminosity function (LF) in the Epoch of Reionization (EoR) based on cosmological hydrodynamics simulations using the SIMBA suite plus radiative transfer calculations vi