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تسجيل مستخدم جديدCosmic Rays and Global Warming
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It has been claimed by others that observed temporal correlations of terrestrial cloud cover with `the cosmic ray intensity are causal. The possibility arises, therefore, of a connection between cosmic rays and Global Warming. If true, the implications would be very great. We have examined this claim to look for evidence to corroborate it. So far we have not found any and so our tentative conclusions are to doubt it. Such correlations as appear are more likely to be due to the small variations in solar irradiance, which, of course, correlate with cosmic rays. We estimate that less than 15% of the 11-year cycle warming variations are due to cosmic rays and less than 2% of the warming over the last 35 years is due to this cause.
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A search has been made for a contribution of the changing cosmic ray intensity to the global warming observed in the last century. The cosmic ray intensity shows a strong 11 year cycle due to solar modulation and the overall rate has decreased since
1900. These changes in cosmic ray intensity are compared to those of the mean global surface temperature to attempt to quantify any link between the two. It is shown that, if such a link exists, the changing cosmic ray intensity contributes less than 8% to the increase in the mean global surface temperature observed since 1900.
Errors in applying regression models and wavelet filters used to analyze geophysical signals are discussed: (1) multidecadal natural oscillations (e.g. the quasi 60-year Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Pa
cific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)) need to be taken into account for properly quantifying anomalous accelerations in tide gauge records such as in New York City; (2) uncertainties and multicollinearity among climate forcing functions prevent a proper evaluation of the solar contribution to the 20th century global surface temperature warming using overloaded linear regression models during the 1900-2000 period alone; (3) when periodic wavelet filters, which require that a record is pre-processed with a reflection methodology, are improperly applied to decompose non-stationary solar and climatic time series, Gibbs boundary artifacts emerge yielding misleading physical interpretations. By correcting these errors and using optimized regression models that reduce multicollinearity artifacts, I found the following results: (1) the sea level in New York City is not accelerating in an alarming way, and may increase by about 350 mm from 2000 to 2100 instead of the previously projected values varying from 1130 mm to 1550 mm estimated using the methods proposed by Sallenger et al. (2012) and Boon (2012), respectively; (2) the solar activity increase during the 20th century contributed about 50% of the 0.8 K global warming observed during the 20th century instead of only 7-10% (IPCC, 2007; Benestad and Schmidt, 2009; Lean and Rind, 2009). These findings stress the importance of natural oscillations and of the sun to properly interpret climatic changes.
The investigation into the possible effects of cosmic rays on living organisms will also offer great interest. - Victor F. Hess, Nobel Lecture, December 12, 1936 High-energy radiation bursts are commonplace in our Universe. From nearby solar flares
to distant gamma ray bursts, a variety of physical processes accelerate charged particles to a wide range of energies, which subsequently reach the Earth. Such particles contribute to a number of physical processes occurring in the Earth system. A large fraction of the energy of charged particles gets deposited in the atmosphere, ionizing the atmosphere, causing changes in its chemistry and affecting the global electric circuit. Remaining secondary particles contribute to the background dose of cosmic rays on the surface and parts of the subsurface region. Life has evolved over the past ~ 3 billion years in presence of this background radiation, which itself has varied considerably during the period. As demonstrated by the Miller-Urey experiment, lightning plays a very important role in the formation of complex organic molecules, which are the building blocks of more complex structures forming life. There is growing evidence of increase in the lightning rate with increasing flux of charged particles. Is there a connection between enhanced rate of cosmic rays and the origin of life? Cosmic ray secondaries are also known to damage DNA and cause mutations, leading to cancer and other diseases. It is now possible to compute radiation doses from secondary particles, in particular muons and neutrons. Have the variations in cosmic ray flux affected the evolution of life on earth? We describe the mechanisms of cosmic rays affecting terrestrial life and review the potential implications of the variation of high-energy astrophysical radiation on the history of life on earth.
Recent work by Aplin and Lockwood [1] was interpreted by them as showing that there is a multiplying ratio of order 10$^{12}$ for the infra-red energy absorbed in the ionization produced by cosmic rays in the atmosphere to the energy content of the c
osmic rays themselves. We argue here that the interpretation of the result in terms of infra-red absorption by ionization is incorrect and that the result is therefore most likely due to a technical artefact
One of the big problems of the age concerns Global Warming, and whether it is man-made or natural. Most climatologists believe that it is very likely to be the former but some scientists (mostly non-climatologists) subscribe to the latter. Unsurprisi
ngly, the population at large is often confused and and is not convinced either way. Here we try to explain the principles of man-made global warming in a simple way. Our purpose is to try to understand the story which the climatologists are telling us through their rather complicated general circulation models. Although the effects in detail are best left to the climatologists models, we show that for the Globe as a whole the effects of man-made global warming can be demonstrated in a simple way. The simple model of only the direct heating from the absorption of infrared radiation, illustrates the main principles of the science involved. The predicted temperature increase due to the increase of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere over the last century describes reasonably well at least most of the observed temperature increase.
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