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Having accurate and timely data on confirmed active COVID-19 cases is challenging, since it depends on testing capacity and the availability of an appropriate infrastructure to perform tests and aggregate their results. In this paper, we propose methods to estimate the number of active cases of COVID-19 from the official data (of confirmed cases and fatalities) and from survey data. We show that the latter is a viable option in countries with reduced testing capacity or suboptimal infrastructures.
Evaluating relative changes leads to additional insights which would remain hidden when only evaluating absolute changes. We analyze a dataset describing mobility of mobile phones in Austria before, during COVID-19 lock-down measures until recent. By
New coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has constituted a global pandemic and has spread to most countries and regions in the world. By understanding the development trend of a regional epidemic, the epidemic can be controlled using the development policy
The new coronavirus known as COVID-19 is spread world-wide since December 2019. Without any vaccination or medicine, the means of controlling it are limited to quarantine and social distancing. Here we study the spatio-temporal propagation of the fir
The need to forecast COVID-19 related variables continues to be pressing as the epidemic unfolds. Different efforts have been made, with compartmental models in epidemiology and statistical models such as AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARI
Using the official data and aware of the uncertain source and insufficient number of samples, we present a first and (for the moment) unique attempt to study the first two months spread of COVID-19 in Madagascar. The approach has been tested by predi