Subscribe to the gold package and get unlimited access to Shamra Academy
Register a new userParameter Estimation for the SEIR Model Using Recurrent Nets
193
0
0.0
(
0
)
Ask ChatGPT about the research
No Arabic abstract
The standard way to estimate the parameters $Theta_text{SEIR}$ (e.g., the transmission rate $beta$) of an SEIR model is to use grid search, where simulations are performed on each set of parameters, and the parameter set leading to the least $L_2$ distance between predicted number of infections and observed infections is selected. This brute-force strategy is not only time consuming, as simulations are slow when the population is large, but also inaccurate, since it is impossible to enumerate all parameter combinations. To address these issues, in this paper, we propose to transform the non-differentiable problem of finding optimal $Theta_text{SEIR}$ to a differentiable one, where we first train a recurrent net to fit a small number of simulation data. Next, based on this recurrent net that is able to generalize SEIR simulations, we are able to transform the objective to a differentiable one with respect to $Theta_text{SEIR}$, and straightforwardly obtain its optimal value. The proposed strategy is both time efficient as it only relies on a small number of SEIR simulations, and accurate as we are able to find the optimal $Theta_text{SEIR}$ based on the differentiable objective. On two COVID-19 datasets, we observe that the proposed strategy leads to significantly better parameter estimations with a smaller number of simulations.
rate research
Read More
Interpretability has largely focused on local explanations, i.e. explaining why a model made a particular prediction for a sample. These explanations are appealing due to their simplicity and local fidelity. However, they do not provide information about the general behavior of the model. We propose to leverage model distillation to learn global additive explanations that describe the relationship between input features and model predictions. These global explanations take the form of feature shapes, which are more expressive than feature attributions. Through careful experimentation, we show qualitatively and quantitatively that global additive explanations are able to describe model behavior and yield insights about models such as neural nets. A visualization of our approach applied to a neural net as it is trained is available at https://youtu.be/ErQYwNqzEdc.
We propose a hierarchical Bayesian recurrent state space model for modeling switching network connectivity in resting state fMRI data. Our model allows us to uncover shared network patterns across disease conditions. We evaluate our method on the ADNI2 dataset by inferring latent state patterns corresponding to altered neural circuits in individuals with Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI). In addition to states shared across healthy and individuals with MCI, we discover latent states that are predominantly observed in individuals with MCI. Our model outperforms current state of the art deep learning method on ADNI2 dataset.
This article investigates the origin of numerical issues in maximum likelihood parameter estimation for Gaussian process (GP) interpolation and investigates simple but effective strategies for improving commonly used open-source software implementations. This work targets a basic problem but a host of studies, particularly in the literature of Bayesian optimization, rely on off-the-shelf GP implementations. For the conclusions of these studies to be reliable and reproducible, robust GP implementations are critical.
Model Stealing (MS) attacks allow an adversary with black-box access to a Machine Learning model to replicate its functionality, compromising the confidentiality of the model. Such attacks train a clone model by using the predictions of the target model for different inputs. The effectiveness of such attacks relies heavily on the availability of data necessary to query the target model. Existing attacks either assume partial access to the dataset of the target model or availability of an alternate dataset with semantic similarities. This paper proposes MAZE -- a data-free model stealing attack using zeroth-order gradient estimation. In contrast to prior works, MAZE does not require any data and instead creates synthetic data using a generative model. Inspired by recent works in data-free Knowledge Distillation (KD), we train the generative model using a disagreement objective to produce inputs that maximize disagreement between the clone and the target model. However, unlike the white-box setting of KD, where the gradient information is available, training a generator for model stealing requires performing black-box optimization, as it involves accessing the target model under attack. MAZE relies on zeroth-order gradient estimation to perform this optimization and enables a highly accurate MS attack. Our evaluation with four datasets shows that MAZE provides a normalized clone accuracy in the range of 0.91x to 0.99x, and outperforms even the recent attacks that rely on partial data (JBDA, clone accuracy 0.13x to 0.69x) and surrogate data (KnockoffNets, clone accuracy 0.52x to 0.97x). We also study an extension of MAZE in the partial-data setting and develop MAZE-PD, which generates synthetic data closer to the target distribution. MAZE-PD further improves the clone accuracy (0.97x to 1.0x) and reduces the query required for the attack by 2x-24x.
We consider the problem of aggregating models learned from sequestered, possibly heterogeneous datasets. Exploiting tools from Bayesian nonparametrics, we develop a general meta-modeling framework that learns shared global latent structures by identifying correspondences among local model parameterizations. Our proposed framework is model-independent and is applicable to a wide range of model types. After verifying our approach on simulated data, we demonstrate its utility in aggregating Gaussian topic models, hierarchical Dirichlet process based hidden Markov models, and sparse Gaussian processes with applications spanning text summarization, motion capture analysis, and temperature forecasting.
suggested questions
Log in to be able to interact and post comments
comments
Fetching comments
Sign in to be able to follow your search criteria
