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We prove the consistency of the Power-Law Fit PLFit method proposed by Clauset et al.(2009) to estimate the power-law exponent in data coming from a distribution function with regularly-varying tail. In the complex systems community, PLFit has emerged as the method of choice to estimate the power-law exponent. Yet, its mathematical properties are still poorly understood. The difficulty in PLFit is that it is a minimum-distance estimator. It first chooses a threshold that minimizes the Kolmogorov-Smirnov distance between the data points larger than the threshold and the Pareto tail, and then applies the Hill estimator to this restricted data. Since the number of order statistics used is random, the general theory of consistency of power-law exponents from extreme value theory does not apply. Our proof consists in first showing that the Hill estimator is consistent for general intermediate sequences for the number of order statistics used, even when that number is random. Here, we call a sequence intermediate when it grows to infinity, while remaining much smaller than the sample size. The second, and most involved, step is to prove that the optimizer in PLFit is with high probability an intermediate sequence, unless the distribution has a Pareto tail above a certain value. For the latter special case, we give a separate proof.
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The class of observation-driven models (ODMs) includes many models of non-linear time series which, in a fashion similar to, yet different from, hidden Markov models (HMMs), involve hidden variables. Interestingly, in contrast to most HMMs, ODMs enjoy likelihoods that can be computed exactly with computational complexity of the same order as the number of observations, making maximum likelihood estimation the privileged approach for statistical inference for these models. A celebrated example of general order ODMs is the GARCH$(p,q)$ model, for which ergodicity and inference has been studied extensively. However little is known on more general models, in particular integer-valued ones, such as the log-linear Poisson GARCH or the NBIN-GARCH of order $(p,q)$ about which most of the existing results seem restricted to the case $p=q=1$. Here we fill this gap and derive ergodicity conditions for general ODMs. The consistency and the asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) can then be derived using the method already developed for first order ODMs.
We study the law of the iterated logarithm (LIL) for the maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters (as a convex optimization problem) in the generalized linear models with independent or weakly dependent ($rho$-mixing, $m$-dependent) responses under mild conditions. The LIL is useful to derive the asymptotic bounds for the discrepancy between the empirical process of the log-likelihood function and the true log-likelihood. As the application of the LIL, the strong consistency of some penalized likelihood based model selection criteria can be shown. Under some regularity conditions, the model selection criterion will be helpful to select the simplest correct model almost surely when the penalty term increases with model dimension and the penalty term has an order higher than $O({rm{loglog}}n)$ but lower than $O(n)$. Simulation studies are implemented to verify the selection consistency of BIC.
In this note we prove the following law of the iterated logarithm for the Grenander estimator of a monotone decreasing density: If $f(t_0) > 0$, $f(t_0) < 0$, and $f$ is continuous in a neighborhood of $t_0$, then begin{eqnarray*} limsup_{nrightarrow infty} left ( frac{n}{2log log n} right )^{1/3} ( widehat{f}_n (t_0 ) - f(t_0) ) = left| f(t_0) f(t_0)/2 right|^{1/3} 2M end{eqnarray*} almost surely where $ M equiv sup_{g in {cal G}} T_g = (3/4)^{1/3}$ and $ T_g equiv mbox{argmax}_u { g(u) - u^2 } $; here ${cal G}$ is the two-sided Strassen limit set on $R$. The proof relies on laws of the iterated logarithm for local empirical processes, Groenebooms switching relation, and properties of Strassens limit set analogous to distributional properties of Brownian motion.
In this work we construct an optimal shrinkage estimator for the precision matrix in high dimensions. We consider the general asymptotics when the number of variables $prightarrowinfty$ and the sample size $nrightarrowinfty$ so that $p/nrightarrow cin (0, +infty)$. The precision matrix is estimated directly, without inverting the corresponding estimator for the covariance matrix. The recent results from the random matrix theory allow us to find the asymptotic deterministic equivalents of the optimal shrinkage intensities and estimate them consistently. The resulting distribution-free estimator has almost surely the minimum Frobenius loss. Additionally, we prove that the Frobenius norms of the inverse and of the pseudo-inverse sample covariance matrices tend almost surely to deterministic quantities and estimate them consistently. At the end, a simulation is provided where the suggested estimator is compared with the estimators for the precision matrix proposed in the literature. The optimal shrinkage estimator shows significant improvement and robustness even for non-normally distributed data.
Consider the case that we observe $n$ independent and identically distributed copies of a random variable with a probability distribution known to be an element of a specified statistical model. We are interested in estimating an infinite dimensional target parameter that minimizes the expectation of a specified loss function. In cite{generally_efficient_TMLE} we defined an estimator that minimizes the empirical risk over all multivariate real valued cadlag functions with variation norm bounded by some constant $M$ in the parameter space, and selects $M$ with cross-validation. We referred to this estimator as the Highly-Adaptive-Lasso estimator due to the fact that the constrained can be formulated as a bound $M$ on the sum of the coefficients a linear combination of a very large number of basis functions. Specifically, in the case that the target parameter is a conditional mean, then it can be implemented with the standard LASSO regression estimator. In cite{generally_efficient_TMLE} we proved that the HAL-estimator is consistent w.r.t. the (quadratic) loss-based dissimilarity at a rate faster than $n^{-1/2}$ (i.e., faster than $n^{-1/4}$ w.r.t. a norm), even when the parameter space is completely nonparametric. The only assumption required for this rate is that the true parameter function has a finite variation norm. The loss-based dissimilarity is often equivalent with the square of an $L^2(P_0)$-type norm. In this article, we establish that under some weak continuity condition, the HAL-estimator is also uniformly consistent.
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